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Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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15 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

This guy is a troll from way back. Time for mod action. Adds nothing but acrimony.

I know he is - just felt like I needed to say something given that we don't have a mod. Not that a mod is necessarily going to do anything. If they need to get their kicks trolling a weather board, they are going to find a way.

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3 minutes ago, luckyweather said:


this would make ban 3 but who’s counting. didn’t realize forum rules allowed for making new accounts to evade bans.

Accounts are based on email so people can keep making accounts and coming back as much as they are willing to create new email accounts.  There really isn't anything you can do other than to keep banning them once you figure it out. The dopamine effect of getting people to react to your comments is just too much for some folks to resist. I probably shouldn't have acknowledge the comments but frustration got the best of me. 

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3 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Idek if he got chased out of town as much as he took his revolver and shot himself in both feet six times and died of the subsequent infection.

Accurate

As for Cromartie, yes he should be removed, nothing useful ever coming from him but constant trolling. I'd do it myself but yeah no green tag here.

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1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Wow, the 00z Euro is quite the fun run.  A hybrid clipper closes off as it passes just south of Iowa/N.Illinois, then strengthens to borderline superstorm as it merges with more energy over the mid-Atlantic.

Looks like fun times ahead. My bar to clear here is 3" for Christmas so...

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While we can expect to see rather large run to run swings for a few more days, the modeling of the PV anomaly swinging down from western Canada is pretty consistent on the medium range guidance.

The 00z Euro is a (fun) best case scenario, but the anomalously deep upper low plus ridge spike along the west coast suggests digging of that nature being a plausible outcome. Meanwhile a 00z operational GFS like outcome would be a letdown vs the potential in the synoptic pattern, but it still would bring a white Christmas to a large portion of the sub that hasn't had a white Christmas since 2017.



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18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

While we can expect to see rather large run to run swings for a few more days, the modeling of the PV anomaly swinging down from western Canada is pretty consistent on the medium range guidance.

The 00z Euro is a (fun) best case scenario, but the anomalously deep upper low plus ridge spike along the west coast suggests digging of that nature being a plausible outcome. Meanwhile a 00z operational GFS like outcome would be a letdown vs the potential in the synoptic pattern, it still would bring a white Christmas to a large portion of the sub that hasn't had a white Christmas since 2017.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Man we can dream right? 0z euro is dream run but feel like a gfs like solution will end up being more plausible with some posdible advisory criteria snowfall with arctic front. A big storm would be nice but not getting my hopes up. GFS was showing something similar to euro before but hasn't had it for days now. Curious to see this in nam's range.

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definitely a thread the needle...but when aren't they?

options

1.  strung out fast moving northern stream sends a run-of-the-mill cold front (gfs 6z)

2. potent northern stream digs to TN valley and sets up a coastal and we are in the donut-hole smoking cirrus

3. something in between, (euro)

At least it appears there won't be precip-type issues.  Even if someone starts as rain it would be a quick turnover.

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