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Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

insane temp gradient with that look, nearly 100 across texas alone

checks many of the boxes for historic regional big dogs

would go down as joe's best call since the ia derecho 

That low in Arkansas was about to go ballistic. Probably a historic bomb if the end of the run was allowed to play out

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28 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

The Euro shows the mother of all troughs in the West toward the end of the run - it's really incredible.  Not enough hot dogs to show the true magnitude.  Near 20F in San Francisco and 0F in Seattle.  And an insane temp gradient.

sfct.conus.png

 

Damn, a torch before Christmas Eve. 

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Pretty strong/consistent signal for 9-10 days out...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1670932800-1671278400-1671796800-40.thumb.gif.a526f49f2cb16c9347bbba652d37899e.gif

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-1670932800-1671278400-1671796800-40-1.thumb.gif.a61968fda5bee8f1fa79406d2adaa15d.gif

The incredible block amplifying over AK pushes a large chunk of cold air south, with cross-polar from from Siberia to the northern Plains. As ridging pops near the west coast, the trough is pushed southeast and amplifies over the central US. All the pieces are there for a large storm. Where the ridge near the west coast sets up, and how much downstream troughing there is over eastern Canada will determine how amped or suppressed any eventual storm ends up being. 

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2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

The Euro shows the mother of all troughs in the West toward the end of the run - it's really incredible.  Not enough hot dogs to show the true magnitude.  Near 20F in San Francisco and 0F in Seattle.  And an insane temp gradient.

sfct.conus.png

 

damn, crazy that the N Pole is now in Great Falls, Mt

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1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Well to be fair, it’s not real often you have widespread model agreement at 240hr. Lots of time to go “poof”, but it’s been a long time since we have something to track

It would also be perfectly timed if it played out like it did on the GFS. Basically starts between midnight & 3am Thursday, ends around 10pm Thursday. Probably would be tricky for those traveling on the 23rd, but not as bad for the 24th/25th.

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On 12/12/2022 at 1:57 PM, beavis1729 said:

 

Wow, a 1070mb high in Alberta.  I know it's a Day 10 Euro prog...but that's insane.

For reference, the Lower 48 record is 1064mb in Miles City, MT on 12/24/1983. :wub:

And the 18z GFS ups the ante, getting into the realm of the ridiculous. 1073mb in MT…and “only” at hour 210.

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I think the models are too fast/aggressive with the Arctic front, both in timing/speed, and strength which is creating havoc with the opperational models in spinning up a storm

If everything slows down a bit (which I think it will) then the Christmas week storm will come back again again in some fashion

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18 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

The Euro shows the mother of all troughs in the West toward the end of the run - it's really incredible.  Not enough hot dogs to show the true magnitude.  Near 20F in San Francisco and 0F in Seattle.  And an insane temp gradient.

sfct.conus.png

 

0z euro backed way off.  gotta stop hugging models outside 24 hours.

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1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

yeah because being miserable the second you step outdoors is awesome.

What's miserable is coming into these threads and having to endure your comments, sarcastic or not.

Also, by responding, I understand that I'm giving you exactly what you're looking for...

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21 minutes ago, Nelson said:

What's miserable is coming into these threads and having to endure your comments, sarcastic or not.

Also, by responding, I understand that I'm giving you exactly what you're looking for...

hey man, we are 15 days into December with no snowcover.  Winter timeclock going tick tock.

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45 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

hey man, we are 15 days into December with no snowcover.  Winter timeclock going tick tock.

i dunno about that but I was up in the land of palms this week doing outside tours of the Harley Davidson plants...not a palm in sight and froze my ass off looking at dead vegetation and crusty snow piles. Made me think your opinions can't be trusted.

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