OHweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Pretty incredible agreement on an extreme 5-day mean pattern on all 3 ensembles 5-10 days out (December 16-21)...and this point, that's unlikely to significantly change: Euro ensemble: GFS ensemble: Canadian ensemble: All three have a huge ridge over the northeast Pacific and Alaska extending to the north pole, facilitating prolonged and robust cross-polar flow. Plus, a west-based -NAO persists. Sub-tropical jet looks fairly active, thanks to a ton of momentum getting added to the Pacific jet stream over the next week or so (this also contributes to the huge ridge into Alaska). Suppression is a concern, but this is definitely a robust clipper pattern too with such amplified flow out of Canada. And, if we can get sufficient wave spacing and a shortwave can amplify, the blocking does support amplified, slow-moving systems across the central and eastern CONUS...but again, would need proper wave spacing or else we'll get more numerous but more suppressed systems in the sub-tropical jet. Because this is a La Nina there will be a gradient with frequent systems somewhere, likely south of the entire region at times, but when blocking relaxes or if a stronger shortwave in the subtropical jet comes along it could shift north at times. Regardless of how much it does or doesn't snow, much of the CONUS will be cold to very cold in the lead-up to and then through the holidays. Severe cold will pour into the northern Rockies and Plains at times, with large pieces of that coming east. Really is hard to draw up a better pattern for Arctic air outbreaks, and at least some snow potential appears to exist. A couple important things happening teleconnection wise in the near future...first, a huge Siberian high descends into eastern Asia later this week. A strong "positive" east Asian mountain torque, which will add significantly to the Pacific jet stream: Note how shortly after the huge high descends out of Siberia, the Rossby wave train amplifies significantly over the Pacific, allowing the huge ridge to pop into Alaska. It does not hurt that the MJO is becoming more coherent and moving into the western Pacific after mid-December: This also adds to the Pacific jet...looking at the op Euro, note how early on in the loop there's some enhancement to the Pacific jet from the first little high descending over East Asia. This begins amping ridging towards Alaska. Then, the larger high descends and convection increases over the western Pacific, adding a ton of momentum to the jet and causing the ridge to amplify in a huge way over the eastern Pacific: Long story short, the north Pacific ridge has had a propensity to amplify this fall and is about to do so in its most significant fashion yet over the next 5-10 days...this will lead to a pattern very supportive of extreme cold into the northern Rockies and Plains, with cold anomalies dominating most of the CONUS before and during the holidays. Snow potential will inevitably come and it's possible the sub-tropical jet has some activity, but some uncertainty lingers regarding more significant snowstorm potential. 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Hopefully get some snow on the front end of this cold push next week. CAD looks in play unless clipper action comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Too good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 GFS going all in on the CAD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Isn't that image valid right after a front sweeps through? A front that currently every model has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 38 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Isn't that image valid right after a front sweeps through? A front that currently every model has? Yup, GFS a bit more aggressive with the cold temps but good model agreement this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 This upcoming cold blast is reminding me of the Holiday cold blast in 2017-18. Similar timing, and we may also be very cold with essentially bare ground. I really hope we get at least some snow before it, but it's looking pretty doubtful at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 10 days out may be our best shot at white christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 10 days out may be our best shot at white christmas Pretty consistent signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 51 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 10 days out may be our best shot at white christmas Wow, a 1070mb high in Alberta. I know it's a Day 10 Euro prog...but that's insane. For reference, the Lower 48 record is 1064mb in Miles City, MT on 12/24/1983. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, ILSNOW said: 10 days out may be our best shot at white christmas 1-2" incoming. Brace yourselves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: 1-2' incoming. Brace yourselves! FYP 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 . 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 New drinking game.. Every time someone mentions "CAD" this year...sheesh. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 50 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: New drinking game.. Every time someone mentions "CAD" this year...sheesh. CAD will also = Sun Shine which has been absent lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Euro [c] would be quite the Christmas gift for Chi-town Peeps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 long range euro with an xmas is saved fantasy storm and a joe approved pattern 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 10 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Euro [c] would be quite the Christmas gift for Chi-town Peeps GFS also looked quite nice for you guys in Detroit as well. A good spread the wealth blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Who do I have to pay to have the 0Z GFS come true? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 12z coming in hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Would be a Christmas snow to remember !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 CAD CAD CAD CAD CAD CAD 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 57 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: 12z coming in hot NW Indiana lake snow machine would require everyone there to get shovels for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: 12z coming in hot Would be a tad windy...just your everyday 73mb pressure gradient between IN and WY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Very nice 12z GFS run... EDIT: Might also have to plan a trip to Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 euro going nuclear at the end of the run, feels good to have a well timed favorable fantasy range storm to track 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Yea the euro was about to go ultra giga at 240 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 insane temp gradient with that look, nearly 100 across texas alone checks many of the boxes for historic regional big dogs would go down as joe's best call since the ia derecho 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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