A-L-E-K Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 dreaming of beach season and ready to flush this turd winter 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Battle of the vet mets JB v LC Haven't seen such opposing thoughts in the long range. LC thinks the incoming cold late next week is out by mid month and we go back to modified pacific air. JB says brutal cold well into April. (shocking I know). I'll be bump'n this one in a couple weeks. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Thoughts? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 12 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Thoughts? coming later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Euro back to trolling the poor souls of northern IL/southeast IA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 I know the chances of this happening are about 0.1% but still, you don’t see stuff like this around here very often. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Euro back to trolling the poor souls of northern IL/southeast IA. Garbage model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 18z GFS says, " What cold air next week?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 29 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Euro back to trolling the poor souls of northern IL/southeast IA. Nice little maximum (close to) in your backyard huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Like Baum said, I'm ready to chase the next ball kicker. This looks like a much more interesting setup no? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: Euro back to trolling the poor souls of northern IL/southeast IA. Just once. Bring it home. our luck we will get this shit in late April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 On 2/9/2023 at 4:04 PM, Chicago Storm said: As we head into the final 1/3rd of February, it appears a similar pattern will continue to start, with a -PNA/SE flexing ridge, though possibly with more of a -EPO developing by then. This idea is very much supported by the ENS and the continued MJO movement from phases 5-6-7 by then. As we head deeper into the final 1/3rd of February, I do expect we see the pattern take another shift though. More on that down the road... Time for a long awaited update. I previously had thought that I had not mentioned anything regarding the final 1/3rd of February, but apparently I did and had forgotten. In any case, obviously we did see the weather pattern from the middle 1/3rd of February continue through the final 1/3rd of February as well. As we are transitioning into March, we are finally seeing some effects of the SPV disruption that has been ongoing since mid-January. We have see a large/significant ridge develop around Europe as we have transitioned from late Feb into early March. This ridge is in the process of retrograding to Greenland, and eventually will back well into Canada, making for a solid -NAO through the early portion of mid-month. At the same time, we are about to see a fairly significant GOA/AK/Aleutian ridge develop (-EPO/-WPO), along with significant ridging in the Arctic (-AO), all of which will continue into the start of mid-month as well. The-NAO/-AO/-EPO combination will push much the sub-forum into a cooler/colder pattern than we have seen, with the coolest/coldest regime as a whole in comparison to average than we have seen since the late January or the pre-Christmas periods. However, one thing to point out is while it will end up cool/cold compared to average for this upcoming point in March, things to not look favorable at this time for significant/severe cold. This is due to Canada being void of any real significantly cold air leading into this period, likely due in part to the very long process of the SPV being disrupted for nearly a month and a half now, instead of the usually more significant SSW events we have seen in the past. Another thing to note is that we are also going to be transitioning from the lengthy -PNA/West Coast trough period we have been in, to a more near neutral/+ PNA. This will lead troughs/disturbances will be originating from the Pac NW/SW Canada, instead of rolling into California/the heart of the West Coast like we have been seeing for a while now. With that said, the addition of some cooler/colder temperatures, along with an average pattern in regards to activity, could mean some increased wintry precip chances that include more areas outside of the heavy hit MN/WI/MI corridor (Quality still TBD). While the evolution of the pattern on the large scale (teleconnections) already started to occur days ago and will continue through the early portion of the middle 1/3rd of March, the effects for us as a whole in the sub-forum will be delayed. We will start seeing more of the effects of this transition at the end of this opening 1/3rd of March, likely continuing through much of the middle 1/3rd of March, even while the pattern on the large scale will likely already have changed once again by then. Some parting words... This upcoming pattern will decently resemble what you would expect to see with the MJO progression from late February through mid-March (Phase 7-8-1[?] progression). Most recently, for much of the final 1/3rd of February, the MJO has been stalled in low amplitude phase 7. To begin March, and continuing through the next few days, the MJO while transition through high amplitude phase 7. This supports the idea of a delayed transition for effects in our sub-forum from the overall pattern shift. As we head later into this beginning 1/3rd of March and into the middle 1/3rd of March, there is high support for a transition into high amplitude phase 8 and potentially phase 1. This supports the aforementioned relaxation of the PNA, with a mild west/cold east regime. However, on the flip side, phase 8 usually has high correlation of being mild even into the Central US. That may be hindered this go around, due to the significant blocking up north. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 4, 2023 Author Share Posted March 4, 2023 tldr version for cromartie... 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 12 hours ago, buckeye said: Battle of the vet mets JB v LC Haven't seen such opposing thoughts in the long range. LC thinks the incoming cold late next week is out by mid month and we go back to modified pacific air. JB says brutal cold well into April. (shocking I know). I'll be bump'n this one in a couple weeks. Both are over the hill and way past their relevance. At least in LC's case he isn't chasing a bag too, which is also why he will be right or closer to right. I am looking more after Mar 21st we switch back to a warmer pattern and potentially bumpy with severe weather. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 14 minutes ago, Stebo said: Both are over the hill and way past their relevance. At least in LC's case he isn't chasing a bag too, which is also why he will be right or closer to right. I am looking more after Mar 21st we switch back to a warmer pattern and potentially bumpy with severe weather. I thought JB was full of it 25 years ago and I still believe he is majorly responsible for the sensationalist BS mass produced "science" of forecasting for public consumption of the last couple of decades. It's my opinion of course but I think he did a lot of damage to the real science some of which we have yet to recover. March has delivered the 2 biggest double digit snows in my area the last decade so Im not completely done yet lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 New Euro is now shifting the late week snows up towards MSP. Would guess the following storm will target southern/eastern MI. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Looks wet and active 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 51 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: New Euro is now shifting the late week snows up towards MSP. Would guess the following storm will target southern/eastern MI. We have a hot hand eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 Battle of the vet mets JB v LC Haven't seen such opposing thoughts in the long range. LC thinks the incoming cold late next week is out by mid month and we go back to modified pacific air. JB says brutal cold well into April. (shocking I know). I'll be bump'n this one in a couple weeks.I’d stick with LC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 tldr version for cromartie...Cold washing out fast. Typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said: New Euro is now shifting the late week snows up towards MSP. Would guess the following storm will target southern/eastern MI. <3 honestly though I am ready for spring. One last good storm yesterday and then we can move on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Gfs says we have another shot at breaking the all time snowstorm record as well as the all time season record. It might just snow until summer up here at this rate. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 We gonna make a thread for the 9th-10th or... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 This is starting to feel like our last big dog all over again with models spitting out crazy totals. I guess that means final call imby 12.4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 16 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: This is starting to feel like our last big dog all over again with models spitting out crazy totals. I guess that means final call imby 12.4” Counting today, MSP is at 96 consecutive days with 1”+ snow cover. If models are correct, this should continue for at least 10 more days, and possibly 15-20 more days. What is the current record? The Midwest winter climo difference between 42N and 45N is unbelievable. It’s really a very short distance relative to the entire NA landmass. You guys are having a warm winter but can still make it work for both snowfall and snow cover…even as I would still be annoyed by the occasional thaws. But here, we can’t tolerate temps normal or above for even a modest 3-5 day period during DJF (much less March), since it kills snow cover. Even in our best winters for both snow and cold combined, we can barely string together 40-50 days of consecutive snow cover. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 The all time record for consecutive days of snow cover is 137 days for Minneapolis. 107 gets us into the top 10. We are going to keep needing these refresher events as the sun gets stronger. The big difference I’ve noticed here versus growing up in Lake County IL is even on the days that get into the upper 30s/low 40s we melt off much less snow due to the sun angle at this latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 2 hours ago, Malacka11 said: We gonna make a thread for the 9th-10th or... can we just do pictures instead of words to name it? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 2 hours ago, Malacka11 said: We gonna make a thread for the 9th-10th or... Are you banned from starting threads?? Smells like an OTIS bomb to me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, Baum said: can we just do pictures instead of words to name it? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 My memory was hazy and my data was a little off. Here’s a graphic from the great winter of 13/14’ showing the top 10 longest snow cover streaks for Minneapolis. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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