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Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion

Chicago Storm

By Chicago Storm,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

:lol: Yeah, unfortunately the key words are something and trying. 12z Canadian op has a crazy temp gradient at hour 180…80s in TX, 20s here, subzero in MN. 

I mentioned it the other day and got a few hahas but seriously, there's building cold in Canada and warmth in the South. That will create a big temp contrast and with the weather turning active, potential is there. Best of all, with me taking a trip up North (even though the snow is subpar up there, there is still snow), I'll be busy enough to not have to watch the models until I get home Monday night.

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Chicago Storm
Chicago Storm

I was going to let OHweather and Ricky handle the final 1/3rd of January into the start of February with their posts from a few days ago, but I changed my mind. Let's toss some more thoughts into the

OHweather
OHweather

Pretty incredible agreement on an extreme 5-day mean pattern on all 3 ensembles 5-10 days out (December 16-21)...and this point, that's unlikely to significantly change: Euro ensemble:

King James
King James

Awesome banter thread guys

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

That month was nutty I remember being in high school and when I seen that forecast and how the temps went into the 80s I could not believe it. I sat in one of my Pc classes and seen the temp was 86 and I was wearing shorts and a t shirt. I like warm weather but that was too much and as stated it was horrible for our crops. Then look 2 years later we froze that winter lol

There was also the severe weather outbreak with the Dexter tornado and how the vast majority of the trees were fully leafed out.

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RogueWaves

RogueWaves

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Models absolutely make it seem worse than it actually is. In the 23 years of this century, I've only seen 3 winters without a 6"+ snowstorm (2015-16, 2011-12, 2003-04). 

For me, 6+ storms the last 10 winters:
Jan 25, 2023: 6.2"
Feb 17/18, 2022: 6.8"
Feb 2/3, 2022: 9.3" (2 waves 6.0+3.3)
Feb 15/16, 2021: 10.8" 
Jan 18, 2020: 7.0"
Nov 11/12, 2019: 8.8"
Jan 19, 2019: 6.1"
Feb 9, 2018: 9.2"
Dec 13/14, 2017: 6.7"
Dec 11, 2016: 10.9"
Feb 1/2, 2015: 16.5"
Mar 12, 2014: 6.8"
Feb 5, 2014: 8.3"
Jan 26/27, 2014: 6.1"
Jan 5/6, 2014: 10.3"
Jan 1/2, 2014: 11.6"
Dec 13/14, 2013: 8.4"
 

What a difference a few counties west makes. During the 3 seasons you didn't score a 6+ event here in Wayne Cnty, I scored 5:

Jan 27/28, 2004: 7.8"
Nov 29, 2011: 8.5"
Nov 22, 2015: 12.5"
Feb 24/25, 2016: 11.6"
Mar 1-3, 2016: 7.0"

The #wildtimes were 14/15/16 winters with a total of 14 Storm Warnings in Marshall during those 3 winters. I'm sure that beats even the vaunted 70s for number of storms in any 3 winter stretch. 

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
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1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

What a difference a few counties west makes. During the 3 seasons you didn't score a 6+ event here in Wayne Cnty, I scored 5:

Jan 27/28, 2004: 7.8"
Nov 29, 2011: 8.5"
Nov 22, 2015: 12.5"
Feb 24/25, 2016: 11.6"
Mar 1-3, 2016: 7.0"

The #wildtimes were 14/15/16 winters with a total of 14 Storm Warnings in Marshall during those 3 winters. I'm sure that beats even the vaunted 70s for number of storms in any 3 winter stretch. 

Too funny how that works. 
In 2003-04 I came very close (5.8" Jan 14 & 5.9" Mar 16/17). Biggest in 2011-12 was 4.9" (Feb 11/12) biggest in 2015-16 was 4.9" (Nov 21). I didn't realize you have 3 such good storms there in 2015-16. I had 4-point-something in each of the 3 here.

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SolidIcewx

SolidIcewx

Posted
Posted

What is the thinking on this SSW of the polar vortex that’s going on? Was doing a little reading that this one is similar to the one in 2018 that caused the beast from the east in Europe when the winds reversed direction from Siberia. Wonder what will happen in the coming weeks especially if it gets so disrupted the winds flip from west to east to east-west orientation.

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OrdIowPitMsp

OrdIowPitMsp

Posted
Posted

Twin Cities NWS is fairly bullish on the back half of February. 
 

“As for next week, we`ll have a rather volatile pattern setup across North America as significant slug of arctic air builds on the front range of the Canadian Rockies down into the the northern US Rockies. At the same time, an anomalously strong subtropical highs will setup over the Bahamas. The arctic airmass in Canada will supply us with plenty of cold air this time around, while anti-cyclonic flow around the Bahamas high will send moisture surging north out of the Gulf toward the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. This is a favorable large scale pattern for seeing above normal precipitation up here. Exactly where this strong baroclinic zone ends up will determine where the storm track ends up next week, but we are seeing signs that a few waves could pass along this boundary through the end of next week. It`s a bit early to dive into the weeds of the specifics details, but this is a favorable pattern for precipitation across the central CONUS and cold air should be in place for the first time in a while (or so it seems).”

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
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Posted
26 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Can someone translate for those of us who don't fully understand MJO progression charts and what this one means for sensible wx in this region? TIA.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

That projected MJO at face value suggests the likely continuation of a mild/active pattern for many, with best cold/snow chances locked up north.

However, with the expected continued evolution of the SPV, which will fight back re: pattern, we could be looking at quite an active gradient pattern that fluctuates. A gamblers pattern to the extreme. It's still off in the late February to early March time period, but it is something to watch.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

That projected MJO at face values suggest the likely continuation of a mild/active pattern for many, with best cold/snow chances locked up north.

 

However, with the expected continued evolution of the SPV, which will fight back re: pattern, we could be looking at quite an active gradient pattern that fluctuates. A gamblers pattern to the extreme.

If it's an active gambler's pattern, the last thing anyone's going to want to do (but they'll do it anyway) is hop on board any one op model run solution for anything.

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frostfern

frostfern

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Can someone translate for those of us who don't fully understand MJO progression charts and what this one means for sensible wx in this region? TIA.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

Enhanced rainfall around Indonesia usually correlates to a stronger SE ridge (i.e. -PNA).  The problem is there's also a predicted destabilization of the polar vortex, which throws a wrench into things.  Also, the peak amplitude is in phase 3 which is really a transition from +PNA to -PNA.  Phase 3 is ambiguous, but if the MJO stays amplified and moves into phase 4-6, it might mean a warm March.  It could just as easily be less amplified and overpowered by whatever happens with the PV breakup.

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CheeselandSkies

CheeselandSkies

Posted
Posted
Just now, frostfern said:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

Enhanced rainfall around Indonesia usually correlates to a stronger SE ridge (i.e. -PNA).  The problem is there's also a predicted destabilization of the polar vortex, which throws a great big wrench into things.  Also, the peak amplitude is in phase 3 which is really a transition from +PNA to -PNA.  If the MJO stays amplified and moves into phase 4-6, it would mean a warm March, but it could just as easily be less amplified and overpowered by whatever happens with the PV breakup.

The ideal weenie result of all that would be a pattern with lots of baroclinic instability battling it out over the central CONUS with plenty of :snowing: and :twister:. Now who exactly cashes in on each is the question.

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frostfern

frostfern

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

The ideal weenie result of all that would be a pattern with lots of baroclinic instability battling it out over the central CONUS with plenty of :snowing: and :twister:. Now who exactly cashes in on each is the question.

A beefier SE ridge combined with a Greenland block might do that.  For severe I'd rather see it in May than March though.

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