frostfern Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 44 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Euro and CMC dangle carrot post Valentines That's a dingleberry dangling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 34 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: Now do GFS. Would you like the GFS or the CFS? I do love to cherry pick on those model runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Cary67 said: Euro and CMC dangle carrot post Valentines If a 980 mb low passes south of me a la Euro, I will leave the board for 1 month after the storm. That's my confidence in that solution not happening. But in a general sense, you see the models advertising how areas outside of the upper Midwest can score in the next 7-10 days. Ricky alluded to it. Get a lead system to suppress the baroclinic zone to some extent for the next one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 If a 980 mb low passes south of me a la Euro, I will leave the board for 1 month after the storm. That's my confidence in that solution not happening. But in a general sense, you see the models advertising how areas outside of the upper Midwest can score in the next 7-10 days. Ricky alluded to it. Get a lead system to suppress the baroclinic zone to some extent for the next one.That Euro run is basically textbook on how it can work and is the probable best case scenario. Mild antecedent air mass and a ~980 mb low taking a favorable track for us are a precarious position to be in. I buy the signal at this point (997 mb low over IND on the EPS mean) that there's more likely than not to be a follow up system to the Tuesday rainer and it's probably our only chance until the last week of February.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I'll be in the UP Feb 16-20 so it's hard to know what to root for lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 On 1/31/2023 at 8:15 PM, Chicago Storm said: For the first 1/3rd of February as a whole, we will continue evolution to another pattern. We will once again revert back to a less consistent wintery pattern (And less active for a bit in general), one that features the best chance of snow and cold being across MN/WI/MI, and needing to more rely on threading the needle elsewhere. We will see a combination of a NAO hovering around neutral, a +EPO, the PNA around or just south of neutral, the lower atmospheric PV lobe center shifting north and an MJO expected to transition from phase 3 to 4. As we head into the first portion of the middle 1/3rd of February there are some strong signals of wanting to head towards a -EPO/-PNA/big SE ridge pattern. This not only has solid ENS support at this long range, but is also heavily supported by the projected MJO movement as well. However, the one wild card will continue to be the SPV, which continues to be taking hits...and could have hand in altering things in a different way. Still awhile off from this period, so we'll see how it trends with time. Things have panned out as anticipated for the first 1/3rd of February, with most things looking on track for what was expected as we head into the middle 1/3rd of February as well. We will indeed be shifting into a pattern dominated by a -PNA, with SE ridging flexing quite a bit from time to time as well. It appears we will have more of a neutral-ish EPO, with rolling ridges instead of a strong/significant firmly entrenched. The lower atmosphere PV lobe will continued to be centered north, across Northern Canada, north of the Hudson generally. Across the CONUS, the look of this pattern is what you'd expect to see with the MJO swinging through phases 4-5-6, as it is doing so. This will once again lead to the best chances for cool temps/snow to be across MN/WI/MI, with thread the needle potential needed elsewhere and mild temps more often than not. The one thing to watch will be the continued disruption of the SPV as we move forward. This, along with a few other factors, will aide in cold air rebuilding a bit across Canada. So it would not be surprising to get a shot brief shot of colder temps across more of the sub-forum if we can get a decent storm system to roll through the region (See the current Euro for that fantasy outcome). As we head into the final 1/3rd of February, it appears a similar pattern will continue to start, with a -PNA/SE flexing ridge, though possibly with more of a -EPO developing by then. This idea is very much supported by the ENS and the continued MJO movement from phases 5-6-7 by then. As we head deeper into the final 1/3rd of February, I do expect we see the pattern take another shift though. More on that down the road... 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 The usual caveats apply, but the weeklies bring Winter back from late February lasting right through March 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: The usual caveats apply, but the weeklies bring Winter back from late February lasting right through March They said the same thing a month ago that the cold would/could last well into Feb. We see how that worked out. The pattern is what it is this season. Third week cold spell of a week or two, then major retreating of the arctic air. The pending outcome of this recent SWE ofc could be the one reason this time it breaks differently but I'm not ready to bite quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Wagons west on mid to late week storm on 12z euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Wagons west on mid to late week storm on 12z euro I wonder if there is a sweet spot of separation between the lead system and this one to make it work for Illinois. If it comes out too quickly, it will tend to cut toward a similar track as the first system. But if it comes out too slowly, then it also gives it a chance to cut farther nw. Probably a serious/difficult thread the needle for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 At this point anything related to sewing makes my gag reflex kick in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 10, 2023 Author Share Posted February 10, 2023 pulling for a continued trend nw, to get us into the 60’s and a severe wx op.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: pulling for a continued trend nw, to get us into the 60’s and a severe wx op. . I'm totally expecting to be in no man's land in between the snow and severe threat. I've thrown just about all optimism for exciting wx out the window at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I wonder if there is a sweet spot of separation between the lead system and this one to make it work for Illinois. If it comes out too quickly, it will tend to cut toward a similar track as the first system. But if it comes out too slowly, then it also gives it a chance to cut farther nw. Probably a serious/difficult thread the needle for many of us. Story of this winter. Lol. I expect non-events anymore. But I'm with Chicago Storm. Root for continued nw trend. Bring on severe wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I'm totally expecting to be in no man's land in between the snow and severe threat. I've thrown just about all optimism for exciting wx out the window at this point. Have to agree. Cold rain till May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: I'm totally expecting to be in no man's land in between the snow and severe threat. I've thrown just about all optimism for exciting wx out the window at this point. Ready to be buried in March 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard22 Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 Ready to be buried in March Aren’t you worried about sun angle in March ?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said: Aren’t you worried about sun angle in March ? . That's more of a problem for long-lasting snow retention or when rates are too light. Heavy enough rates will overcome the sun angle in March, April, and even May if it were to snow hard enough. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said: Aren’t you worried about sun angle in March ? . No, only for snowcover retention 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: That's more of a problem for long-lasting snow retention or when rates are too light. Heavy enough rates will overcome the sun angle in March, April, and even May if it were to snow hard enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 26 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said: We had accumulation here May 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Honestly with a forecast of 62 on the 15th I’ll take some severe weather then @michsnowfreak idea of being buried in March. Best of both worlds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2023 Author Share Posted February 11, 2023 GFS with the fantasy 40-50” blizzard SE of MSP next week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 I don't know what's funnier about that GFS run. MSP having 68" out to 384 hrs or Chicago having 0.5" in that same timespan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said: I don't know what's funnier about that GFS run. MSP having 68" out to 384 hrs or Chicago having 0.5" in that same timespan. I know which one has a better shot at verifying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 Oh cool, another miss northwest. Guess I'd rather have that then a near miss just southeast ala GHD3 last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 ^ Its coming. With a storm track over Chicago and misses NW most of the winter; will probably get that pattern change end of Feb or early March followed by cold dump(transient or more staying power?) and misses SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 when does the torch start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 11, 2023 Share Posted February 11, 2023 9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: when does the torch start? Not soon enough. Bless these men in this thread still talking winter weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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