michsnowfreak Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: I look at that snow season as one that wasn't far off from a big total at ORD (ended up just slightly below the current normal). Had the big February stretch, but didn't get into the max swath in any of the events in that stretch. Also had several near misses, including the December clippers that favored WI to lower MI, a whiff west and south with the big late March event, and a miss north with the April blizzard. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk In my opinion 2017-18 is a highly underrated Winter here. It came after the record smashing snowy stretch from 2005 to 2015, and since 17-18, it's been pretty average snow-wise as a whole (and we know that average is unacceptable for many a snow weenie lol). Ended up with a season total of 62.5" here and at DTW the 61.0" ranks as the 15th snowiest winter. However Detroit's northern suburbs cashed in far better, with 87.3" at the White Lake DTX NWS office and some unofficial reports nearing 100" in the micro climate snow belt of northern Oakland County. Pics below are from 2-9-18. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 6, 2023 Author Share Posted February 6, 2023 mmhmm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: mmhmm... 5-6-7 is a good way to stay above average through the 18th or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 Time 2 torch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 23 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Time 2 torch Time to get the swim trunks out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 Fruit farmers are not going to like this one bit. Maple syrup is also going to have a really short season if this holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 12 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: Fruit farmers are not going to like this one bit. Maple syrup is also going to have a really short season if this holds. Because of the continued drought IMO and previous year late frost damage to a couple of my key maples; I was already planning to give them a break this year. Looks like I made a good choice! You can already see signs of dripping sap around some of my maples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 Have to hope this upcoming potential SSW doesn't repeat 2018. 2nd coldest April on record here, only reason we didn't get coldest on record was the fact we hit 81 on the 30th. We got the mega blizzard in central Wisconsin in mid month and Madison got hit with 7.2" the week afterwards. Luckily that melted within 2 days.This is not what you want to see if you want a warm March-April. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 I'm gonna laugh or cry if my biggest snow comes in March, or especially April. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 hours ago, WestMichigan said: Fruit farmers are not going to like this one bit. Maple syrup is also going to have a really short season if this holds. It looks mild the next 2 weeks but I'm sure nothing that will make the trees bud. Then looking like a cold March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I'm gonna laugh or cry if my biggest snow comes in March, or especially April. Historically it's actually not uncommon at all to have the seasons biggest snowstorm come in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: This is not what you want to see if you want a warm March-April. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk I don't know what this means but I'm always for a cold March and April lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: It looks mild the next 2 weeks but I'm sure nothing that will make the trees bud. Then looking like a cold March. I don’t know if it’s even possible to get weather warm enough for long enough to cause the trees to bud here in February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 I start to get real grumpy if I am watching the masters with snow outside… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Historically it's actually not uncommon at all to have the seasons biggest snowstorm come in March. As the southern US starts to warm in March, the temperature contrast really gets wild and therefore so can the snow on the cold side. You gotta love when it’s snowing and 30F at your house and 70F a 3 hour drive away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 It’s kind of off topic but I remember during the April 2003 ice storm, it was in the upper 20s here and in the low 70s in the far southern part of the state before the cold pushed south along with the freezing rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Historically it's actually not uncommon at all to have the seasons biggest snowstorm come in March. I think ORD actually pulled off the biggest snow in April thing in 2018 or 2019. And I know Detroit's top snowstorm on record happened in April. All this mild wx that we've been having and will have could actually give a small boost to any winter storm that manages to occur here later in the season, as long as the airmass isn't complete marginal trash. Talking about the lake temps running above average. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 20 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I think ORD actually pulled off the biggest snow in April thing in 2018 or 2019. And I know Detroit's top snowstorm on record happened in April. All this mild wx that we've been having and will have could actually give a small boost to any winter storm that manages to occur here later in the season, as long as the airmass isn't complete marginal trash. Talking about the lake temps running above average. I just checked for Detroit. In 142 years of snow records, 29 times the seasons biggest snowstorm has occured in March and 3 times in April. This is 22.5% of the time. It has not happened since 1996, which is by far the longest stretch on record without Mar/Apr storm being king of the season. For it to happen this year so far the number to beat is 6.5" from January 25th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: This is not what you want to see if you want a warm March-April. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Yeah, this does concern me, but it's not a death knell. Feb 2001 had a SSW and it was at the end of a multi year La Nina and April was above average. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: This is not what you want to see if you want a warm March-April. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk So that is indicative of a SSW causing a weakening and disruption of the PV? I was under the impression that even SSWs that do occur doesn't necessarily displace a lobe of the PV into North America. Sometimes it dislodges it into Asia or Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 April 2018 was perfect. 26.1” of snow and palm tree weather by the end of the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 13 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: April 2018 was perfect. 26.1” of snow and palm tree weather by the end of the month. Went to like three Brewers game that month that were ripping snow. No thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 13 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: April 2018 was perfect. 26.1” of snow and palm tree weather by the end of the month. Seems like these "switch flip" winter to summers are becoming more common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Seems like these "switch flip" winter to summers are becoming more common. Happens in reverse around mid October too. Hot and humid through September and then switch flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 So that is indicative of a SSW causing a weakening and disruption of the PV? I was under the impression that even SSWs that do occur doesn't necessarily displace a lobe of the PV into North America. Sometimes it dislodges it into Asia or Europe.The zonal winds becoming negative are indicative of a SSW, though tropospheric coupling and/or the split or displacement causing effects like 2018 (2013 another somewhat recent example) are far from a given. My post was a little tongue in cheek because of our luck in springs being the one thing we're good at ruining haha. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 7 hours ago, hardypalmguy said: Went to like three Brewers game that month that were ripping snow. No thanks. Gonna go out on a limb here and say the roof was closed during those games, and it was 68 degrees inside the stadium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Looking at the upcoming pattern, given the MJO influence likely playing a role in flexing the SE ridge, certainly not a cold look and some outright torch days will be in play. That said, the fact that there will be cold air into Canada, northern Plains, northern Lakes, means it's not a pattern not necessarily devoid of snow threats farther south (still would be better farther west you go given the southeast ridge). While the favored corridor overall should be similar to what we've seen this winter, shorter wavelengths this time of year with an already active wave train is how it can work. There have been some operational runs showing this, with a lead warmer cutter and then follow up wave interacting with a temporarily shunted baroclinic zone post fro-pa. It's thread the needle amidst more wet than white threats, but not zero (though pessimism is not unreasonable). After the mild and wet southeast ridge regime, still looking at a possible transition to a better pattern beyond mid month with positive height anomalies in the western part of the EPO domain and potentially -WPO as well forcing the TPV a bit farther south. This may be related to MJO wave propagation and stratospheric evolution. In the last few runs, the EPS has been a bit quicker to go into a colder look, so certainly not a lock yet. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Gonna go out on a limb here and say the roof was closed during those games, and it was 68 degrees inside the stadium. Palm tree weather and green grass inside. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Looking at the upcoming pattern, given the MJO influence likely playing a role in flexing the SE ridge, certainly not a cold look and some outright torch days will be in play. That said, the fact that there will be cold air into Canada, northern Plains, northern Lakes, means it's not a pattern not necessarily devoid of snow threats farther south (still would be better farther west you go given the southeast ridge). While the favored corridor overall should be similar to what we've seen this winter, shorter wavelengths this time of year with an already active wave train is how it can work. There have been some operational runs showing this, with a lead warmer cutter and then follow up wave interacting with a temporarily shunted baroclinic zone post fro-pa. It's thread the needle amidst more wet than white threats, but not zero (though pessimism is not unreasonable). After the mild and wet southeast ridge regime, still looking at a possible transition to a better pattern beyond mid month with positive height anomalies in the western part of the EPO domain and potentially -WPO as well forcing the TPV a bit farther south. This may be related to MJO wave propagation and stratospheric evolution. In the last few runs, the EPS has been a bit quicker to go into a colder look, so certainly not a lock yet. Sent from my SM-G998U using TapatalkNever was a fan of a secondary low riding up the cold front. If the main show doesn’t produce, it’s usually a letdown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Uh oh… SE ridge becomes CONUS ridge. Morch….is that you?!?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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