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Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

I look at that snow season as one that wasn't far off from a big total at ORD (ended up just slightly below the current normal). Had the big February stretch, but didn't get into the max swath in any of the events in that stretch. Also had several near misses, including the December clippers that favored WI to lower MI, a whiff west and south with the big late March event, and a miss north with the April blizzard.

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In my opinion 2017-18 is a highly underrated Winter here. It came after the record smashing snowy stretch from 2005 to 2015, and since 17-18, it's been pretty average snow-wise as a whole (and we know that average is unacceptable for many a snow weenie lol). Ended up with a season total of 62.5" here and at DTW the 61.0" ranks as the 15th snowiest winter. However Detroit's northern suburbs cashed in far better, with 87.3" at the White Lake DTX NWS office and some unofficial reports nearing 100" in the micro climate snow belt of northern Oakland County.

Pics below are from 2-9-18.

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12 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Fruit farmers are not going to like this one bit.  Maple syrup is also going to have a really short season if this holds.

Because of the continued drought IMO and previous year late frost damage to a couple of my key maples; I was already planning to give them a break this year.  Looks like I made a good choice!

You can already see signs of dripping sap around some of my maples.

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Have to hope this upcoming potential SSW doesn't repeat 2018.  2nd coldest April on record here, only reason we didn't get coldest on record was the fact we hit 81 on the 30th.  
 
We got the mega blizzard in central Wisconsin in mid month and Madison got hit with 7.2" the week afterwards.  Luckily that melted within 2 days.
This is not what you want to see if you want a warm March-April. e95ab3c5faa45f50cd18cd93f16447ad.jpg

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12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Historically it's actually not uncommon at all to have the seasons biggest snowstorm come in March.

As the southern US starts to warm in March, the temperature contrast really gets wild and therefore so can the snow on the cold side. You gotta love when it’s snowing and 30F at your house and 70F a 3 hour drive away. 

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Historically it's actually not uncommon at all to have the seasons biggest snowstorm come in March.

I think ORD actually pulled off the biggest snow in April thing in 2018 or 2019.  And I know Detroit's top snowstorm on record happened in April.

All this mild wx that we've been having and will have could actually give a small boost to any winter storm that manages to occur here later in the season, as long as the airmass isn't complete marginal trash.  Talking about the lake temps running above average.

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20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think ORD actually pulled off the biggest snow in April thing in 2018 or 2019.  And I know Detroit's top snowstorm on record happened in April.

All this mild wx that we've been having and will have could actually give a small boost to any winter storm that manages to occur here later in the season, as long as the airmass isn't complete marginal trash.  Talking about the lake temps running above average.

I just checked for Detroit. In 142 years of snow records, 29 times the seasons biggest snowstorm has occured in March and 3 times in April.  This is 22.5% of the time. It has not happened since 1996, which is by far the longest stretch on record without Mar/Apr storm being king of the season. For it to happen this year so far the number to beat is 6.5" from January 25th.

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5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

This is not what you want to see if you want a warm March-April. e95ab3c5faa45f50cd18cd93f16447ad.jpg

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Yeah, this does concern me, but it's not a death knell.  Feb 2001 had a SSW and it was at the end of a multi year La Nina and April was above average.  

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5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

This is not what you want to see if you want a warm March-April. e95ab3c5faa45f50cd18cd93f16447ad.jpg

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So that is indicative of a SSW causing a weakening and disruption of the PV? I was under the impression that even SSWs that do occur doesn't necessarily displace a lobe of the PV into North America. Sometimes it dislodges it into Asia or Europe.

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So that is indicative of a SSW causing a weakening and disruption of the PV? I was under the impression that even SSWs that do occur doesn't necessarily displace a lobe of the PV into North America. Sometimes it dislodges it into Asia or Europe.
The zonal winds becoming negative are indicative of a SSW, though tropospheric coupling and/or the split or displacement causing effects like 2018 (2013 another somewhat recent example) are far from a given. My post was a little tongue in cheek because of our luck in springs being the one thing we're good at ruining haha.


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Looking at the upcoming pattern, given the MJO influence likely playing a role in flexing the SE ridge, certainly not a cold look and some outright torch days will be in play. That said, the fact that there will be cold air into Canada, northern Plains, northern Lakes, means it's not a pattern not necessarily devoid of snow threats farther south (still would be better farther west you go given the southeast ridge).

While the favored corridor overall should be similar to what we've seen this winter, shorter wavelengths this time of year with an already active wave train is how it can work. There have been some operational runs showing this, with a lead warmer cutter and then follow up wave interacting with a temporarily shunted baroclinic zone post fro-pa. It's thread the needle amidst more wet than white threats, but not zero (though pessimism is not unreasonable).

After the mild and wet southeast ridge regime, still looking at a possible transition to a better pattern beyond mid month with positive height anomalies in the western part of the EPO domain and potentially -WPO as well forcing the TPV a bit farther south. This may be related to MJO wave propagation and stratospheric evolution. In the last few runs, the EPS has been a bit quicker to go into a colder look, so certainly not a lock yet.

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Looking at the upcoming pattern, given the MJO influence likely playing a role in flexing the SE ridge, certainly not a cold look and some outright torch days will be in play. That said, the fact that there will be cold air into Canada, northern Plains, northern Lakes, means it's not a pattern not necessarily devoid of snow threats farther south (still would be better farther west you go given the southeast ridge).

While the favored corridor overall should be similar to what we've seen this winter, shorter wavelengths this time of year with an already active wave train is how it can work. There have been some operational runs showing this, with a lead warmer cutter and then follow up wave interacting with a temporarily shunted baroclinic zone post fro-pa. It's thread the needle amidst more wet than white threats, but not zero (though pessimism is not unreasonable).

After the mild and wet southeast ridge regime, still looking at a possible transition to a better pattern beyond mid month with positive height anomalies in the western part of the EPO domain and potentially -WPO as well forcing the TPV a bit farther south. This may be related to MJO wave propagation and stratospheric evolution. In the last few runs, the EPS has been a bit quicker to go into a colder look, so certainly not a lock yet.

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Never was a fan of a secondary low riding up the cold front. If the main show doesn’t produce, it’s usually a letdown.
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