frostfern Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Last 2 winters being in the LES belt saved me. I miss the consistency of cold and clippers pre-2016 though. Long periods of mid30s + overcast + bare ground made it more depressing than average outside the excitement of a couple LES bomb events and the minor wet thump last week. Not getting my hopes up for next week, but its nice to finally have some crisp sunny cold with fresh snowcover - while it lasts. Then back to more 30s-40s and constant cloudcover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 I know it's controversial but I've heard the BSR looks good for a wintry and active late February into March for our region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 7 hours ago, Hoosier said: It's bad when anybody in Arkansas is outsnowing parts of I-80... and it's not early season anymore. lol @ Omaha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Models all still have a storm around the 10th that has some cold sector precip. Canadian looks best but they've all been flopping back n forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 19 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Models all still have a storm around the 10th that has some cold sector precip. Canadian looks best but they've all been flopping back n forth. Calling it a cold sector is very generous 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 Lock in the torch. Feb is cooked and so is winter. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 27 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: Lock in the torch. Feb is cooked and so is winter. That's over 2 weeks away. Not gonna lose any sleep over it.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 That's over 2 weeks away. Not gonna lose any sleep over it..Denial in full force I see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 50 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: Denial in full force I see. No, just looking fwd to 2/10-11 and the possibilities that lie therein.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 I'm gonna start thinking that we're heading toward a 2012 type situation if the US snowcover situation deteriorates in the next few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 It's bad when anybody in Arkansas is outsnowing parts of I-80... and it's not early season anymore.Interesting graphic, shows how the storm pattern has been entirely like that all winter. Just nothing but Colorado lows and Gulf lows. I can’t even think of a single Alberta clipper to this point to slowly pad the stats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 Zzzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 00z Euro says seasonal trend continues for northern IL/southeast IA lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 9 hours ago, hardypalmguy said: Lock in the torch. Feb is cooked and so is winter. Fine by me. Nothing left to salvage anyway. Here is to hoping Morch is only 3 weeks away 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 7 hours ago, Hoosier said: I'm gonna start thinking that we're heading toward a 2012 type situation if the US snowcover situation deteriorates in the next few weeks. By hook or by crook you are bound and determined to will into existence a 1936 summer again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 12 hours ago, hardypalmguy said: Lock in the torch. Feb is cooked and so is winter. At least you're dedicated. I'll give you that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 4 hours ago, Chambana said: By hook or by crook you are bound and determined to will into existence a 1936 summer again My post was a little tongue in cheek of course, as it takes a pretty perfect set of circumstances to get something like 2012. Back then we were in a 2nd year Nina, while we're currently in a 3rd year Nina. Here are January 2012 and January 2023 temp anomalies (note the scales are different). Both very warm in the central-eastern US, with more widespread warmth in 2012. Now, February 2012 torched pretty good. I don't think we will get a repeat of this magnitude of northern US warmth, even if the anomaly placement of cool west/warm east ends up happening by month's end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 43 minutes ago, Hoosier said: My post was a little tongue in cheek of course, as it takes a pretty perfect set of circumstances to get something like 2012. Back then we were in a 2nd year Nina, while we're currently in a 3rd year Nina. Here are January 2012 and January 2023 temp anomalies (note the scales are different). Both very warm in the central-eastern US, with more widespread warmth in 2012. Now, February 2012 torched pretty good. I don't think we will get a repeat of this magnitude of northern US warmth, even if the anomaly placement of cool west/warm east ends up happening by month's end. 2012 was just absurd. Curious with a dying weak La Niña transitioning to enso neutral (similar to 2012) what this will yield for spring/summer. Obviously many different factors, and the one caveat models hinting a borderline moderate Nino developing this year. If I remember correctly 2012 stayed neutral with enso neutral observed during winter 2012-2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 We should go into a Nino later this year. Whether it develops in time to impact summer and in what way remains to be seen. Nino summers can be cooler but not always. 2002 is a good example of a warm summer during a Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 I'm gonna start thinking that we're heading toward a 2012 type situation if the US snowcover situation deteriorates in the next few weeks.Bring it. Best summer ever. Sizzlin 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 I recall Feb 2018 being quite mild then March and April were brutal. Ice storm in mid to late April here. That year was transitioning from Nina to Nino too. Hmmm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 19 minutes ago, roardog said: I recall Feb 2018 being quite mild then March and April were brutal. Ice storm in mid to late April here. That year was transitioning from Nina to Nino too. Hmmm. The thing about that year is that the January was pretty much the complete opposite of this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 I recall Feb 2018 being quite mild then March and April were brutal. Ice storm in mid to late April here. That year was transitioning from Nina to Nino too. Hmmm. Out here, we had by far our snowiest month of that winter in February and a record tying 9 days in a row of measurable snow. The 2nd half of the month was mild and wet (with a big river flooding event in Indiana and east central IL), but finished exactly normal at ORD following the cold and snowy start. Biggest factor in the cold March-April 2018 was a poorly timed SSW event in the latter part of February that set up an extended period of deep -NAO blocking. April was particularly brutal because it was essentially another month of winter when almost everyone but beavis are craving warmer temps by then. If you want something to ruin spring, a prolonged late season blocking episode is one of the common ways to do it. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 The thing about that year is that the January was pretty much the complete opposite of this year.By February, the pattern finally resembled a more classic La Niña look with amplifying southeastern ridging. It was decidedly un Niña-like most of the time prior to that. I believe the SSW and subsequent blocking disrupted what might have been a mild and active spring. The SPV has had times of being strong this winter, but lack of NAO and AO blocking hasn't been the main driver of the warmth since January. I wouldn't rule out stratospheric effects causing issues in March-April this year because January was warm. This December had a period of pretty strong NAO blocking. 2011-2012 isn't a good analog either because it had a huge PV lobe parked on top of Alaska November onward. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 42 minutes ago, roardog said: I recall Feb 2018 being quite mild then March and April were brutal. Ice storm in mid to late April here. That year was transitioning from Nina to Nino too. Hmmm. Feb 2018 was the only warmer than avg month of that cold season, and it was only due to the torch the last 10 days of the month. It was actually a snowy month here. And yes, that April ice storm was something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 Feb 2018 was the only warmer than avg month of that cold season, and it was only due to the torch the last 10 days of the month. It was actually a snowy month here. And yes, that April ice storm was something. I look at that snow season as one that wasn't far off from a big total at ORD (ended up just slightly below the current normal). Had the big February stretch, but didn't get into the max swath in any of the events in that stretch. Also had several near misses, including the December clippers that favored WI to lower MI, a whiff west and south with the big late March event, and a miss north with the April blizzard. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 Did someone say April 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Out here, we had by far our snowiest month of that winter in February and a record tying 9 days in a row of measurable snow. The 2nd half of the month was mild and wet (with a big river flooding event in Indiana and east central IL), but finished exactly normal at ORD following the cold and snowy start. Biggest factor in the cold March-April 2018 was a poorly timed SSW event in the latter part of February that set up an extended period of deep -NAO blocking. April was particularly brutal because it was essentially another month of winter when almost everyone but beavis are craving warmer temps by then. If you want something to ruin spring, a prolonged late season blocking episode is one of the common ways to do it. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Have to hope this upcoming potential SSW doesn't repeat 2018. 2nd coldest April on record here, only reason we didn't get coldest on record was the fact we hit 81 on the 30th. We got the mega blizzard in central Wisconsin in mid month and Madison got hit with 7.2" the week afterwards. Luckily that melted within 2 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toro99 Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 The number of rain events forecast by the Euro and GFS in the extended range is utterly flabbergasting for this time of year. So disappointing, when a lot of us were counting on February to be our month. Did I just type the word flabbergasting? Good grief, that’s how bad it is 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 2 hours ago, madwx said: Have to hope this upcoming potential SSW doesn't repeat 2018. 2nd coldest April on record here, only reason we didn't get coldest on record was the fact we hit 81 on the 30th. We got the mega blizzard in central Wisconsin in mid month and Madison got hit with 7.2" the week afterwards. Luckily that melted within 2 days. Yeah, let's not. D/J/to a lesser extent F is time. A/M/J (not early March or early or mid-December) is time. Seasons in seasons, please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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