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Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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46 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

12z Euro total snow Chicago maxes out at 1 inch

 

sn10_acc-imp.us_mw.png

Meanwhile yesterday 12z run was good for Chicago.

Main thing I'm looking for is an active look for the sub.  Don't want to see that evaporate.  Details can be figured out later.

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2 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Too bad the GFS is on an island with its nw solution to the weekend threat 

Per usual, wait for this lead storm to roll through before getting too excited/bummed about the next one. As many have stated, atleast it's looks more active with some cold air to work with.

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Last week of January and first week of February look cool to cold across the sub.  Looks like the SE ridge will flex after than and shift the cold to the NW.  The real question will be how the PV weakening event around the 25th of January will impact weather the last half of February and into March.

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I was going to let OHweather and Ricky handle the final 1/3rd of January into the start of February with their posts from a few days ago, but I changed my mind. Let's toss some more thoughts into the ring.

As expected, the long awaited pattern change is underway, essentially being kicked off with the current storm system moving through the region. This pattern really isn't one that will be set in stone or locked in place as a whole, with things likely to be ever changing/evolving as we work through this final 1/3rd of January and through the first 1/3rd of February.

Things will start off with what everyone can see being modeled for this weekend and through next week. The lower atmosphere PV axis will be elongated, extending from the Svalbard region to Greenland to the Hudson. There will be a few attempts at a -NAO, but nothing too significant or overpowering as it looks now. Additionally, we will see constant troughing into the Western/Central US, though this trough axis will be displaced east, with a mor eneutral PNA in place. Pac waves will top the -EPO ridge, and then crash into Canada and down into the Western/Central US. It should be noted that this does not look like as signififcant of a -EPO as was seen about a month or so ago. This pattern leads to a continued active time across the CONUS and leads us to the upcoming potential for the weekend and mid next week storm systems, both of which will heavily rely on phasing and wave interaction. Beyond the mid-week storm system there looks to finally be support for a shot at some colder temperatures for a period of time for at least part of the sub-forum, supported by SPV stretching movement and MJO movement.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_barbs-4432000.thumb.png.621dae4cb9978a57e3bba781df52115e.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_barbs-4777600.thumb.png.517fc42eafe8f3bd5457923c83296877.png

As we move into the period of the final weekend in January, the shared week of the end of January/beginning of February and the first weekend of February, we will see the pattern continue to evolve. The lower atmosphere PV axis will continue to be elongated from the Svalbard region to Greenland to the Hudson. Any attempts at a -NAO may tend to subside a bit with time, and we will steadily see a transition to a more significant -PNA/Western US trough and a relax of the -EPO. This should allow for a continued active pattern across the CONUS. This will be sort of a gamblers pattern....With cold air nearby finally, Western US/North-Central US trough and some from of SE ridge. Who will end up on the right/wrong side of things will is tbd. The early February portion of this period is still 2 weeks + away, so could expect possibly some changes, especially with how volatile things will be for quite a while...But did want to mention where things may head. The changing teleconnections, evolving MJO and assault on the SPV will make for volatile times in general, from late this month on into February, that's for sure.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_barbs-5036800.thumb.png.2b04850a2bdf52a7b763b6724350faeb.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_barbs-5339200.thumb.png.a789a19272284c3e63701d0b651dab9a.png

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