Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

14 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Buffalo climate would drive me mad. Melting snow and the slop it brings is the worst. Getting epic 3”+ dumps would be an enticing trade off though.

We go to northern Minnesota every few months. I love being only 2 hours from what feels like wilderness. Lots of skiing at Lutsen this time of year and multiple camping and backpacking trips every summer. I’ve been eyeballing land to purchase up there for a few years. I’d love to be near Lake Superior and the Lutsen/Tofte area, but if you want acreage (which I do) you’ve gotta go to the interior south of the boundary waters. 

I would love to visit northern MN someday.

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

New indications have us solid above normal now through Feb 7th.  Looking grim for a flip.

This will be a great post to bump Feb 8th.

[Stevo6899]

25 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This will be a great post to bump Feb 8th.

What annoys me is even when the enso is in our favor, we have winters like this year and the past few yrs where it's underwhelming as far as big dogs go. But when we're in a El Nino, the east coast gets atleast one big noreaster. Such is life I suppose not having a moisture source right next door.

[michsnowfreak]

35 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

What annoys me is even when the enso is in our favor, we have winters like this year and the past few yrs where it's underwhelming as far as big dogs go. But when we're in a El Nino, the east coast gets atleast one big noreaster. Such is life I suppose not having a moisture source right next door.

I remember back in the 1990s we were taught that El nino means warm and dry and La Nina means cold and wet however the past few decades enso has been all over the place in terms of sensible weather

[michsnowfreak]

One more week to muddle through, then it looks like the ensembles have a more active and colder look.  This far out that's all you can ask for is signs of change, which there are.

 

[hardypalmguy]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

This will be a great post to bump Feb 8th.

You also said the week of cold over Christmas was coming back before New Years.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

You also said the week of cold over Christmas was coming back before New Years.

I said the cold was coming back before new years? Wow that's news to me

[A-L-E-K]

could be worse i guess

[Baum]

37 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

could be worse i guess

until we see an amped storm cut through the OV entraining cold air and gulf moisture while intensifying versus a progressive weakening SE slider we are in winter hades. Been over 3 years at minimum by my  count.

[A-L-E-K]

you're not wrong 

[Cary67]

Hoping cold air shows up for Norgi ski jump event by end of the month. At least they can make snow.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[A-L-E-K]

i'll head out for norgi if we get a freak dump, haven't been since i was a kid

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, Baum said:

until we see an amped storm cut through the OV entraining cold air and gulf moisture while intensifying versus a progressive weakening SE slider we are in winter hades. Been over 3 years at minimum by my  count.

We've had some good snow storms the past few years, but of course most of them start with model porn before hitting reality. Honestly I'd much rather get a bowling ball system than any kind of cutting storm

[OHweather]

Getting much more encouraged about the upcoming stretch…all ensembles have a ridge bridge across the Arctic in the 10-15 day with cross polar flow into a deepening trough into the central US. Get this into the 6-10 and that’s a pretty high confidence significant cold signal for someone. There is disagreement over how far east  the trough axis sets up, though I’d characterize this as an EPO cold shot and those often don’t make it into the eastern US as quickly as modeled so the GEFS may be a little more correct. Regardless of the exact evolution, the pattern will be turning much colder over most of the continent in late January and the gradient may setup somewhere across the sub. 
 

The GEFS could support a bigger cutter favoring the western sub, while the EPS and GEPS could support more of an Ohio Valley runner and clipper look. 
 

I feel confident we’ll have a legit period of wintry temperatures and increased snow potential the last week of January into the start of February, though still plenty of details (how cold, how much snow and where) to still sort out. From there, the question will be if we can maintain this favorable Pacific pattern with a ridge along the west coast into February or if we see things slide back west and allow the Southeast ridge to flex. We’ll also have to watch the stratospheric polar vortex for possible disruptions and the blocking on the above means near Scandinavia…both could lead to a more -NAO well down the road. So, lots of uncertainty the rest of the winter but we definitely have a window coming up…and we’ll go from there. 

[Hoosier]

Good post.

The southeast ridge usually seems to assert itself in Ninas in February, so I'd probably be nervous with southward/eastward extent in this sub.  Could be a good month for a good part of the region though depending how things unfold.

[Chicago Storm]

someone stole my thunder.

[pondo1000]

26 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Getting much more encouraged about the upcoming stretch…all ensembles have a ridge bridge across the Arctic in the 10-15 day with cross polar flow into a deepening trough into the central US. Get this into the 6-10 and that’s a pretty high confidence significant cold signal for someone. There is disagreement over how far east  the trough axis sets up, though I’d characterize this as an EPO cold shot and those often don’t make it into the eastern US as quickly as modeled so the GEFS may be a little more correct. Regardless of the exact evolution, the pattern will be turning much colder over most of the continent in late January and the gradient may setup somewhere across the sub. 
 

The GEFS could support a bigger cutter favoring the western sub, while the EPS and GEPS could support more of an Ohio Valley runner and clipper look. 
 

I feel confident we’ll have a legit period of wintry temperatures and increased snow potential the last week of January into the start of February, though still plenty of details (how cold, how much snow and where) to still sort out. From there, the question will be if we can maintain this favorable Pacific pattern with a ridge along the west coast into February or if we see things slide back west and allow the Southeast ridge to flex. We’ll also have to watch the stratospheric polar vortex for possible disruptions and the blocking on the above means near Scandinavia…both could lead to a more -NAO well down the road. So, lots of uncertainty the rest of the winter but we definitely have a window coming up…and we’ll go from there. 

Always look forward to your posts! Thx OH!

[OHweather]

58 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

someone stole my thunder.

I only post like 4 times a year gotta make it count 

[OHweather]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Good post.

The southeast ridge usually seems to assert itself in Ninas in February, so I'd probably be nervous with southward/eastward extent in this sub.  Could be a good month for a good part of the region though depending how things unfold.

Yeah I suspect the SE ridge tries flexing at times into February given La Niña climo and also the MJO working through the Indian Ocean and western Pacific late this month into early Feb which also teleconnects to a SE ridge. So, the amount of blocking (especially over Alaska and western Canada) may say a lot about how much the gradient can be shoved south into the sub forum in the face of that. I do think there’s a window where we’re all pretty cold and the storm track shifts far enough south for most to be in the game around the end of this month, but we’ll see how long that can last. 

[RCNYILWX]

Yeah I suspect the SE ridge tries flexing at times into February given La Niña climo and also the MJO working through the Indian Ocean and western Pacific late this month into early Feb which also teleconnects to a SE ridge. So, the amount of blocking (especially over Alaska and western Canada) may say a lot about how much the gradient can be shoved south into the sub forum in the face of that. I do think there’s a window where we’re all pretty cold and the storm track shifts far enough south for most to be in the game around the end of this month, but we’ll see how long that can last. 

Have definitely been surprised at the persistence of the strong El Niño like pattern this month. Looked at other La Niñas in the 2000s that had colder than normal Decembers followed by above/well above normal January, and most prominent examples were 2006 and 2017. The h5 pattern is pretty similar thus far this month to those months.

Despite fairly low amplitude in warm phases end of December and through early January, it does appear that the MJO did play a noteworthy role in getting to the current pattern, with a similar progression in the 2006 and 2017 winters, though a much stronger wave in those cases.

It's good to see the consistency of the improved pattern in the ensemble guidance, so overall agree with your thoughts, and it appears at this point we probably won't be repeating how the rest of the winters played out in 2006 and 2017, at least to start February. The MJO emerging with more amplitude into colder phases looks like it should get things established for a time and then we'll see if a strong wave maintains back through the warmer phases.

For our interests out here in northern Illinois, the EPS has trended to a farther west EPO ridge axis vs a few days ago (and a -PNA toward the end of the latest run), so there's not much concern of a shift to a CAD type pattern, while GEFS had already been pointing in that direction.

I think bigger concern would be storm track/p-type related - think something like February 2019 which had a deeply -EPO, but southeast ridge from -PNA flexed just enough to keep the mean storm track too close to us and the extreme snow across IA, MN, WI. That said, would always gamble with a -PNA -EPO coupling and a -NAO can help (if it develops) - late January-February 2021 a good recent example.

[Chicago Storm]

20 hours ago, OHweather said:

We’ll also have to watch the stratospheric polar vortex for possible disruptions.

This is a given at this point, the SPV is going to be significantly disrupted late this month and into February. Taking that into account, along with other factors (MJO movement and teleconnection evolution), it most definitely will lead to a volatile pattern, in which the overall pattern shift will likely occur in phases.

[Spartman]

Nail in the coffin #SpringisComing

 

[hardypalmguy]

Nail in the coffin #SpringisComing
 

[RogueWaves]

On 1/10/2023 at 3:37 PM, mimillman said:

Could be worse, you could live in Lansing, MI, snow desert of the Midwest

LOL. KLAN smashed it last winter. Nearly 2 feet more than here. Poor showing for a "snow desert"

[RogueWaves]

4 hours ago, Spartman said:

Nail in the coffin #SpringisComing

 

Can't argue. Tree buds are noticeable already here in today's sun.

[Hoosier]

I'd say there's a good chance the east coast is f*cked overall (never can rule out a fluke/brief favorable period).  More nuanced situation in our sub imo.

[A-L-E-K]

zzzzz

[hardypalmguy]

Long range GFS is palm tree weather as we end January.  No relief in sight for this trend.

[steve23guy]

On 1/12/2023 at 6:22 AM, Cary67 said:

Hoping cold air shows up for Norgi ski jump event by end of the month. At least they can make snow.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I lived right next to this on ski hill road for 5 years 

 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Long range GFS is palm tree weather as we end January.  No relief in sight for this trend.

I never knew palm tree weather was temps around 15°F. Learn something new every day!