beavis1729 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I can't entertain the big dog futility record for Chicago unless we get to mid February with very little additional snow. Come to think of it, one of the sad things about this winter so far is that there hasn't even been any futility to track. First measurable snow and first inch of snow didn't happen too late, and December was sort of a run of the mill below average snow month. I guess we could keep an eye on where January ends up, as there's only been 0.2" so far this month at ORD. Long way to go though. It sure hasn’t felt like ORD has had 4.5” of snow…it has been mostly dustings with the depth no greater than 1” all winter so far. I would have guessed 2-3”. If this is truly just a “run of the mill” below average snowfall December, that’s incredibly sad. It has felt like the worst December ever, outside of the tiny 5 day period from Dec 21-25 (and even that period wasn’t great, as there wasn’t much snow). The most important and all-encompassing metric for the quality of a winter is snow depth days (SDDs). That has been abysmal so far at ORD. Our climo SDDs are bad enough, but we are probably close to an all time record low through mid-January. I know it probably takes some effort to come up with the SDD data by year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Meaning much colder of a pattern than we are now. Temperatures a little colder than normal during the dead of Winter looks good to me. I don't need -30 windchills like we had a Christmas. Just give me cold and snow. I wouldn't lock that in as a likelihood across the sub-forum on a consistent basis as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: joe must be slant sticking to get that 4.5 14 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: It sure hasn’t felt like ORD has had 4.5” of snow…it has been mostly dustings with the depth no greater than 1” all winter so far. I would have guessed 2-3”. ORD snowfall by "event" this season... Nov 15-19th: 1.1" Dec 9th: 0.2" Dec 15-16th: 1.7" Dec 22nd: 1.3" Jan 5th: 0.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: joe must be slant sticking to get that 4.5 the only think i want to slant stick is 89° days to 90°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 question have we ever had a JAN with under 1 inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 Just now, ILSNOW said: question have we ever had a JAN with under 1 inch? There have been 8 such, most recently 2017 with 0.6" of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 27 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: It sure hasn’t felt like ORD has had 4.5” of snow…it has been mostly dustings with the depth no greater than 1” all winter so far. I would have guessed 2-3”. If this is truly just a “run of the mill” below average snowfall December, that’s incredibly sad. It has felt like the worst December ever, outside of the tiny 5 day period from Dec 21-25 (and even that period wasn’t great, as there wasn’t much snow). The most important and all-encompassing metric for the quality of a winter is snow depth days (SDDs). That has been abysmal so far at ORD. Our climo SDDs are bad enough, but we are probably close to an all time record low through mid-January. I know it probably takes some effort to come up with the SDD data by year. If December 2022 seems like the worst ever, what did you think of Decembers between 2018-2021? December 2022 wasn't even close to being in the 10 least snowy for Chicago. I looked it up a while back and it was something like 35th from the bottom, give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Ok, here's a futility mark for Chicago. Haven't had a 2" calendar day snowfall yet. 1920-21 and 1921-22 are the only 2 without one. My grandparents were toddlers/young kids back then and probably not quite old enough to understand what was going on, but imagine being a snow lover back then. What a brutal back to back. Oh, I am tracking... There are some top 10 lists we will be cracking soon for snowfall futility. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 41 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: It sure hasn’t felt like ORD has had 4.5” of snow…it has been mostly dustings with the depth no greater than 1” all winter so far. I would have guessed 2-3”. If this is truly just a “run of the mill” below average snowfall December, that’s incredibly sad. It has felt like the worst December ever, outside of the tiny 5 day period from Dec 21-25 (and even that period wasn’t great, as there wasn’t much snow). The most important and all-encompassing metric for the quality of a winter is snow depth days (SDDs). That has been abysmal so far at ORD. Our climo SDDs are bad enough, but we are probably close to an all time record low through mid-January. I know it probably takes some effort to come up with the SDD data by year. Could be worse, you could live in Lansing, MI, snow desert of the Midwest 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Oh, I am tracking... There are some top 10 lists we will be cracking soon for snowfall futility. I was going to look at snowfall to date and through various upcoming dates, but have at it. I'm sure this craptastic start to January (and for the forseeable future) is starting to bring some things into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 For the "it doesn't seem like that much snow" crowd, the measurable snow season in the lower Great Lakes is typically November through April. Occasionally October and May make appearances. Everything that accumulates adds to the season total. This is why I always think it's way early to talk season futility before the halfway point of Winter. It gets brought up every year there's a below average start to the snow season and thus far has never panned out. There's a difference between a slow start/bad pattern and all time futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 45 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If December 2022 seems like the worst ever, what did you think of Decembers between 2018-2021? December 2022 wasn't even close to being in the 10 least snowy for Chicago. I looked it up a while back and it was something like 35th from the bottom, give or take. Yeah...which is just one more item to add to the mounting pile of evidence that illustrates how bad our climo is. I think it just seems worse this year because of the compounding effect of crappy Decembers over and over again for the past several years. We've had essentially no snow cover so far this season. Sure, we had 1" on the ground for a few days before Christmas...but is the bar really that low now? I'm thinking back to December 2000. Yes, I admit that was a good month for snow and cold...but, honestly, that's more like what winter should be. Not saying I expect every December to be like 2000...but they should be closer to 2000 than the crap we've endured recently. The problem with our climo is that, whenever we get a decent winter month, you know you'll probably not see it again for a very long time. Good (not necessarily great) months need to be more common. P.S. I refuse to admit or accept that Chicago's average December snowfall is less than 10". No matter what the stats say, I'm going with 10"...which is bad enough already. Every decade when the 30-year normals are updated, the average annual snowfall goes down. It used to be over 40", now it's down to 37" (?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: P.S. I refuse to admit or accept that Chicago's average December snowfall is less than 10". No matter what the stats say, I'm going with 10"...which is bad enough already. Every decade when the 30-year normals are updated, the average annual snowfall goes down. It used to be over 40", now it's down to 37" (?). Only 38 of 139 Decembers have had 10.0" or more of total snowfall, and several (6) barely made it over that threshold. That's only 27% of Decembers since 1884. So yea, it's about time you accept where you live. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 30 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: P.S. I refuse to admit or accept that Chicago's average December snowfall is less than 10". No matter what the stats say, I'm going with 10"...which is bad enough already. Every decade when the 30-year normals are updated, the average annual snowfall goes down. It used to be over 40", now it's down to 37" (?). Oh, and if you want bad... For the climate period of 1911-1930, the average seasonal snowfall for Chicago was was 29.7". (31.4" for standard 30 year climate period of 1901-1930). We live in an area that has a lot of variability is the point here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Beavis, the average annual snowfall for Chicago actually went up a little bit on the 1991-2020 normals compared to what it was between 1981-2010. You can be dissatisfied with Chicago winters, and there's no doubt about December trending worse especially in recent years. But so far, that has not really impacted the average annual snowfall in a negative way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Palm tree weather in full effect. No denying it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Beavis, the average annual snowfall for Chicago actually went up a little bit on the 1991-2020 normals compared to what it was between 1981-2010. You can be dissatisfied with Chicago winters, and there's no doubt about December trending worse especially in recent years. But so far, that has not really impacted the average annual snowfall in a negative way. Good point. Absolutely you can be dissatisfied with Chicago's climate, or any climate for that matter. But if you decide to fudge numbers or exaggerate, be prepared to be corrected lol. I mean Chicago had almost 2 feet of snow on the ground 2 years ago in February. Does that not count as a "good month"? I know Detroit has shaved a few inches off of the December norm as well but weve added several inches to January and February norms so there is a net gain for season average. 1991-2020: 44.6" 1981-2010: 43.0" 1971-2000: 43.0" 1961-1990: 40.8" 1951-1980: 38.1" 1941-1970: 32.4" 1931-1960: 32.4" 1921-1950: 35.7" 1911-1940: 39.2" 1901-1930: 43.3" 1891-1920: 43.5" 1881-1910: 45.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Just now, michsnowfreak said: Good point. Absolutely you can be dissatisfied with Chicago's climate, or any climate for that matter. But if you decide to fudge numbers or exaggerate, be prepared to be corrected lol. I mean Chicago had almost 2 feet of snow on the ground 2 years ago in February. Does that not count as a "good month" question mark I know Detroit has shaved a few inches off of the December norm as well but weve added several inches to January and February norms so there is a net gain for season average. 1991-2020: 44.6" 1981-2010: 43.0" 1971-2000: 43.0" 1961-1990: 40.8" 1951-1980: 38.1" 1941-1970: 32.4" 1931-1960: 32.4" 1921-1950: 35.7" 1911-1940: 39.2" 1901-1930: 43.3" 1891-1920: 43.5" 1881-1910: 45.1" Seasonal snow average is increasing due to climate change. Squeezing extra moisture out of a warming atmosphere. The cliff is fast approaching though, where that snow changes to rain and totals fall rapidly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, hardypalmguy said: Seasonal snow average is increasing due to climate change. Squeezing extra moisture out of a warming atmosphere. The cliff is fast approaching though, where that snow changes to rain and totals fall rapidly. Nope. They've had a number of record snowfalls in far Southern climes in recent years. I don't think anyone as far north as Milwaukee or Chicago or Detroit needs to worry about the snowfall average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 BTW @beavis1729 don't think my correcting your stats and bringing you down to reality means I'm happy with the weather either. It does suck. It was very nice around Christmas here but other than that it sucks. I would suggest hibernating for another week and a half then it looks like a much wintrier pattern may take shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 19 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Nope. They've had a number of record snowfalls in far Southern climes in recent years. I don't think anyone as far north as Milwaukee or Chicago or Detroit needs to worry about the snowfall average I also wouldn't worry about the seasonal snowfall averages rapidly plunging in the immediate future. They probably would in a situation with a substantial amount of warming from the current averages, but as you posted, the lower Lakes/OV area hasn't warmed as much as other areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 ITT: A bunch of weenies who should move to Msp if they want snow otg in a large city. Haven’t had bare ground since 11/29 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: ITT: A bunch of weenies who should move to Msp if they want snow otg in a large city. Haven’t had bare ground since 11/29 I know your comment was tongue in cheek, but Minneapolis is having an exceptionally snowy season while most everyone else is having an exceptionally low snow season. Obviously Minneapolis is always a better place for snowcover, but in those snow seasons where the lower Great Lakes is getting lots of snow often Minneapolis sits cold and dry getting much of their snow early and late in the season. I remember several dud winters a few years back where Minneapolis was really getting screwed similar to this years bullseyes. In fact, while Minneapolis averages a bit more than Detroit (52.5" to 44.6"), Detroit actually averages more in January and February. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I also wouldn't worry about the seasonal snowfall averages rapidly plunging in the immediate future. They probably would in a situation with a substantial amount of warming from the current averages, but as you posted, the lower Lakes/OV area hasn't warmed as much as other areas. Of course not. There's literally nothing pointing towards that happening. Just depends on my mood if I want to respond to palm trolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: I remember several dud winters a few years back where Minneapolis was really getting screwed My first two winters here 15/16 and 16/17 I believe we finished sub 40” on snowfall, it comes and goes. The main takeaway here versus the lower lakes is the staying power of the snow we get. However there’s plenty of times I wish I lived in Duluth for a true deep winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 22 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: My first two winters here 15/16 and 16/17 I believe we finished sub 40” on snowfall, it comes and goes. The main takeaway here versus the lower lakes is the staying power of the snow we get. However there’s plenty of times I wish I lived in Duluth for a true deep winter. I personally am a snowcover person so Minneapolis would suit me just fine. But I know a lot of other folks are just about the snowfall and say they don't care as much about snow cover (or so they say during the good times). Buffalo has had 101.6" of snow this season but only 29 days with 1" or more of snow on the ground lol. But I like where I live so I'm staying put and will continue with my annual February trips to northern Michigan. If I where you were i would definitely be checking out the northwoods of Minnesota for a Winter weekend or something. Maybe catch northern lights. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: I personally am a snowcover person so Minneapolis would suit me just fine. But I know a lot of other folks are just about the snowfall and say they don't care as much about snow cover (or so they say during the good times). Buffalo has had 101.6" of snow this season but only 29 days with 1" or more of snow on the ground lol. But I like where I live so I'm staying put and will continue with my annual February trips to northern Michigan. If I where you were i would definitely be checking out the northwoods of Minnesota for a Winter weekend or something. Maybe catch northern lights. Buffalo climate would drive me mad. Melting snow and the slop it brings is the worst. Getting epic 3”+ dumps would be an enticing trade off though. We go to northern Minnesota every few months. I love being only 2 hours from what feels like wilderness. Lots of skiing at Lutsen this time of year and multiple camping and backpacking trips every summer. I’ve been eyeballing land to purchase up there for a few years. I’d love to be near Lake Superior and the Lutsen/Tofte area, but if you want acreage (which I do) you’ve gotta go to the interior south of the boundary waters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 New indications have us solid above normal now through Feb 7th. Looking grim for a flip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 4 hours ago, hardypalmguy said: New indications have us solid above normal now through Feb 7th. Looking grim for a flip. This what you mean by "new indications"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted January 11, 2023 Share Posted January 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: This what you mean by "new indications"? Ride the palm weather until you can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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