Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

lol 958mb at hour 216.

And still primarily a rainer 

Would be wild on the west side of the low as it peaks in MO/IL.  Extreme 850 mb winds.

Obviously have to take this particular solution with a 1000 grains of salt, but I think it is an indication that the pattern could produce something pretty significant for somebody.

[cyclone77]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Would be wild on the west side of the low as it peaks in MO/IL.  Extreme 850 mb winds.

Obviously have to take this particular solution with a 1000 grains of salt, but I think it is an indication that the pattern could produce something pretty significant for somebody.

Definitely an interesting pattern.  Seems like it's chucking out sub 980mb systems one after the other.  Hopefully something noteworthy comes of it, it'd be kind of a shame to waste it lol.

[A-L-E-K]

ready 4 bomb season

[bdgwx]

Here is weather historian Christoper Burt's list of barometric pressure records for each state from his blog. The February 1960 cyclone that Hoosier mentioned is listed frequently.

[hardypalmguy]

9 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Was that the storm that supposedly had reports of 5” ice build ups? 

Read this man.

https://www.weather.gov/media/grb/Final Ice Storm 1976.pdf

[SchaumburgStormer]

11 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Read this man.

https://www.weather.gov/media/grb/Final Ice Storm 1976.pdf

F that. Incredible, but F that. 

[hardypalmguy]

3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

F that. Incredible, but F that. 

Yup where I live now was in the most destructive swath of that storm.

[SchaumburgStormer]

The models are so bad that the NWS is just moving to the "Magic 8 Ball forecast system". 

 

"Will we get snow?"

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Time to focus on next week. 
 

 

[hardypalmguy]

20 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Time to focus on next week. 
 

 

Hoping to start seasonal shift and convert all storms for me to rain.

[IWXwx]

3 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

The models are so bad that the NWS is just moving to the "Magic 8 Ball forecast system". 

 

"Will we get snow?"

They need to go back to the pre-AVN days.

[WaryWarren]

3 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Time to focus on next week. 
 

 

 

[Hoosier]

Not a bad GFS run for the sub.

[sbnwx85]

I'm trying hard to reel that bad boy on Friday northwest.

[Malacka11]

2 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

I'm trying hard to reel that bad boy on Friday northwest.

GEFS looked pretty sweet and the CMC keeps waffling around too. One way to find out i guess

[Baum]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Not a bad GFS run for the sub.

can someone post the "hello darkness my old friend meme". Thanks in advance.

[Hoosier]

DVN did a little longer range discussion today

 

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 225 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023

A pattern change occurred last week which put an anomalously
strong upper level high over the Pacific and a deep longwave trof
over the western CONUS. Analysis shows the Pacific upper high
maintaining through early March before breaking down around mid-
March in a potentially major pattern change.

The MJO is forecast to restrengthens next week with the signal
propagating into the Maritime Continent. This signal combined with
the western CONUS trof indicates a very dynamic weather pattern
for the mid latitudes across North America, and, the potential
for developing strong extratropical cyclones ejecting from the
western trof.

The MJO forecast is to have it move from phase 3 through phase 7
over the next three weeks. These phases have the potential for
warmer and wetter than normal across the Midwest, especially
during phases 5 and 6. However, the lingering weak La Nina will
likely cause some deconstructive interference.

The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks indicate
a 33 to 40 percent chance of above normal precipitation through
March 10th. Temperature wise the outlooks are mixed which is
likely due to deconstructive interference with the weak La Nina.
The CPC 6-10 day outlook has a 33 percent chance of above normal
temperatures for the area but near normal temperatures for the 8
to 14 day outlook.

Week 3-4...March 11-24

The Climate Prediction Center outlook shows a 70-80 percent
chance of below normal temperatures. This signal indicates the
previous alluded to major pattern change occurring around mid-
March. As for precipitation, CPC has equal chances suggesting
there is interference occurring between the pattern change, the
MJO and the weak La Nina.

[Chicago Storm]

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

DVN did a little longer range discussion today

 

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 225 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023

The MJO forecast is to have it move from phase 3 through phase 7
over the next three weeks. These phases have the potential for
warmer and wetter than normal across the Midwest, especially
during phases 5 and 6. However, the lingering weak La Nina will
likely cause some deconstructive interference.

Sorry to break it to them, but they're like 2 weeks behind on that. Already happened.

[Frog Town]

I hope it's wrong as this is about the time i'm looking forward to things warming up.  Darn Murph!

[Lightning]

41 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Sorry to break it to them, but they're like 2 weeks behind on that. Already happened.

Exactly.  

[CheeselandSkies]

18Z GFS looks beautiful for Tuesday 3/7...has me at 54 degrees...at midnight. Too bad moisture is very paltry into that surface low tracking through MN.

Won't verify, of course. However, it's the first run I recall seeing that actually gets anywhere in Wisconsin above 50 degrees through the end of the run.

Lots of "potential" stuff bouncing around in this pattern. Whether any of that potential translates to something interesting and who actually gets the and/or remains to be seen.

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

DVN did a little longer range discussion today

 

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 225 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2023

A pattern change occurred last week which put an anomalously
strong upper level high over the Pacific and a deep longwave trof
over the western CONUS. Analysis shows the Pacific upper high
maintaining through early March before breaking down around mid-
March in a potentially major pattern change.

The MJO is forecast to restrengthens next week with the signal
propagating into the Maritime Continent. This signal combined with
the western CONUS trof indicates a very dynamic weather pattern
for the mid latitudes across North America, and, the potential
for developing strong extratropical cyclones ejecting from the
western trof.

The MJO forecast is to have it move from phase 3 through phase 7
over the next three weeks. These phases have the potential for
warmer and wetter than normal across the Midwest, especially
during phases 5 and 6. However, the lingering weak La Nina will
likely cause some deconstructive interference.

The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks indicate
a 33 to 40 percent chance of above normal precipitation through
March 10th. Temperature wise the outlooks are mixed which is
likely due to deconstructive interference with the weak La Nina.
The CPC 6-10 day outlook has a 33 percent chance of above normal
temperatures for the area but near normal temperatures for the 8
to 14 day outlook.

Week 3-4...March 11-24

The Climate Prediction Center outlook shows a 70-80 percent
chance of below normal temperatures. This signal indicates the
previous alluded to major pattern change occurring around mid-
March. As for precipitation, CPC has equal chances suggesting
there is interference occurring between the pattern change, the
MJO and the weak La Nina.

Cromartie will be disappearing.

[madwx]

March 10-20 looks cold.  It remains to be seen what happens after that, but the pattern should remain active through the month.

[Lightning]

6 minutes ago, madwx said:

March 10-20 looks cold.  It remains to be seen what happens after that, but the pattern should remain active through the month.

I'll take active as it at least gives a chance at something happening 

[hardypalmguy]

17 minutes ago, madwx said:

March 10-20 looks cold.  It remains to be seen what happens after that, but the pattern should remain active through the month.

if "normal" is cold, then maybe.  but I think March is going to be warm.

[Malacka11]

The system around 180 hours out catches my eye because it looks like if it happens, it might be a less thermally marginal setup (right?). I guess if it isn't a shitter sludge storm then I'd be more open to one last chance. 

[SolidIcewx]

3 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

The system around 180 hours out catches my eye because it looks like if it happens, it might be a less thermally marginal setup (right?). I guess if it isn't a shitter sludge storm then I'd be more open to one last chance. 

We only get cement around here

[Baum]

forced into the medium range thread after another swift boot to the mid section. Oddly, it's much easier to overcome March disappointments than mid winter. Rumor is cold is on the table. Shocker.

[Cary67]

8 minutes ago, Baum said:

forced into the medium range thread after another swift boot to the mid section. Oddly, it's much easier to overcome March disappointments than mid winter. Rumor is cold is on the table. Shocker.

Think March may have a couple more hits to the mid section. Ricky confirmed a -EPO setting up mid March along with a -NAO. Will probably translate to some CAD here with the OV and EC getting their chance vs MSP

[buckeye]

52 minutes ago, Baum said:

forced into the medium range thread after another swift boot to the mid section. Oddly, it's much easier to overcome March disappointments than mid winter. Rumor is cold is on the table. Shocker.

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