Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Two Michigan cities among snowiest in U.S. over last 30 years, Old Farmer’s Almanac says (msn.com)

 

It only uses cities with 10,000+ people. But I can't figure out where Marquette is.

Sault Ste. Marie has been the snowiest city in the U.S. over the last 30 years, according to the data compiled by the 230-year-old publication.

“One of the oldest French settlements in North America, Sault Ste. Marie is located near the bank of a river which connects Lake Huron and Lake Superior,” the publication reads. “With lake-effect snow, it’s no surprise that it’s one of the snowiest places in the United States".

Muskegon, a popular summer tourism destination, checked in at No. 7 on the list.

“A winter wonderland, Muskegon is situated between Lake Michigan to the west and Muskegon Lake to the north, receiving heavy lake-effect snow from Lake Michigan during winter time, totaling 79.3 inches annually,” the publication reads.”Midwesterners flock to Muskegon in the winter for luging, ice skating, and wintry fun.”

The Almanac also notes that Michigan has many snowy cities, including Grand Rapids (74.6 inches), Flint (49.9) and Detroit (43).

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It only uses cities with 10,000+ people. But I can't figure out where Marquette is.

Sault Ste. Marie has been the snowiest city in the U.S. over the last 30 years, according to the data compiled by the 230-year-old publication.

“One of the oldest French settlements in North America, Sault Ste. Marie is located near the bank of a river which connects Lake Huron and Lake Superior,” the publication reads. “With lake-effect snow, it’s no surprise that it’s one of the snowiest places in the United States".

Muskegon, a popular summer tourism destination, checked in at No. 7 on the list.

“A winter wonderland, Muskegon is situated between Lake Michigan to the west and Muskegon Lake to the north, receiving heavy lake-effect snow from Lake Michigan during winter time, totaling 79.3 inches annually,” the publication reads.”Midwesterners flock to Muskegon in the winter for luging, ice skating, and wintry fun.”

The Almanac also notes that Michigan has many snowy cities, including Grand Rapids (74.6 inches), Flint (49.9) and Detroit (43).

Marquette averages way  more than all those cities 

[A-L-E-K]

 futility looking $$$

[Frog Town]

I'm out.  See you all in February!  I'll probably be a much more effective person without the distraction that exciting winter weather is to me.  

[michsnowfreak]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Marquette averages way  more than all those cities 

The only thing I can think of is Marquettes official data is kept in the neighboring city of Negaunee, and Negaunee has less than 10,000 people

[Chicago Storm]

Really not much to say regarding the upcoming middle 1/3rd of January (11-20th)...

For the most part, the pattern we are currently in is expected to continue for most of this upcoming period. While looking at the traditional teleconnections wouldn't give you the big picture of information, we are most definitely still in a +WPO/+EPO/N PNA/+NAO like pattern. As has been the case to end December and for the first 1/3rd of January, this will lead to a similar pattern continuing. A mix of cool/mild temperatures will continue, with AN being the overall case for much of the sub-forum. An active weather pattern across the CONUS will also continue, thanks to the +WPO/+EPO/N PNA combo. If we were to have paired a -PNA with the +WPO/+EPO combo, we could have reallyyy torched and could have seen even more severe t'storm opportunities, so that's a small bright spot for the winter lovers in that hasn't/isn't occurring. However, with the main cold air locked in around Asia/North Pole/Northern Canada, this means any snow chances will be continued best across the northern portions of the sub-forum, with elsewhere struggling to see a minor event potential...unless a super thread the needle event can pop up.

Beyond the upcoming middle of January period and looking towards the final 1/3rd late January period, there are once again some long off hints of maybe some change, but that is still a while off. Recall though, at the end of December there were once long off hints that there could be change during this mid-month period, that obviously will not occur. 

[mimillman]

Bleak 

[Cary67]

Believe.....lol

[OHweather]

Kind of interesting to watch how the pattern has evolved from November 1 through early January. In general, for November and the first half of December, we had a north Pacific/Aleutian ridge that frequently resulted in a western US trough...a -PNA/fairly typical La Nina pattern, with what could be characterized as a relatively weak/retracted Pacific jet stream. Since then, we've switched to a strong north Pacific/Aleutian low, which is blasting the Pacific jet stream into the west coast and cutting off an Arctic influence into the CONUS. This can be characterized as a very strong and extended Pacific jet stream, more typical of an El Nino.

While the Pacific has been the issue preventing sustained cold for much of the late fall/early winter, it's been because we've gone from one extreme to another, with only a brief period in between in mid-late December where we managed a more favorable pattern for widespread cold in the CONUS. We have had blocking at times...the Aleutian ridge flexed to the point where it was a -EPO that facilitated cross-polar flow at times in November and December (which is the typical way to get Arctic shots in a La Nina), and we had a relatively robust -NAO for most of December...but we've seen a mix of Pacific patterns that are different but mild for the central/eastern CONUS in their own ways and have torched when blocking relaxes.

The Pacific jet stream will weaken considerably over the next week, finally, as much lower pressure over eastern Asia (a negative mountain torque, which requires a loss of westerly atmospheric momentum/a weakening of the jet stream to compensate) and a downturn in convection over the western Pacific warm pool (resulting in less latent heat release and a weakening of the gradient over the western Pacific, also weakening the Pacific jet) both suggest a quick loss of westerly momentum over the Pacific. This is why ensembles are hinting at the trough backing away from the west coast and allowing heights to rise at least somewhat after mid-January.

My guess is we transition back to a more typical Nina pattern into February when tropical forcing returns to the western Pacific and enhances the lingering La Nina circulation, but with perhaps another one of our "brief windows" in between where we can get a ridge along the West Coast in a spot that can increase polar/arctic influence into the central and eastern CONUS for 1-2 weeks around the end of January/early February as we make that transition. 

[A-L-E-K]

Tldr for the casuals, feb will b rocking 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, OHweather said:

Kind of interesting to watch how the pattern has evolved from November 1 through early January. In general, for November and the first half of December, we had a north Pacific/Aleutian ridge that frequently resulted in a western US trough...a -PNA/fairly typical La Nina pattern, with what could be characterized as a relatively weak/retracted Pacific jet stream. Since then, we've switched to a strong north Pacific/Aleutian low, which is blasting the Pacific jet stream into the west coast and cutting off an Arctic influence into the CONUS. This can be characterized as a very strong and extended Pacific jet stream, more typical of an El Nino.

While the Pacific has been the issue preventing sustained cold for much of the late fall/early winter, it's been because we've gone from one extreme to another, with only a brief period in between in mid-late December where we managed a more favorable pattern for widespread cold in the CONUS. We have had blocking at times...the Aleutian ridge flexed to the point where it was a -EPO that facilitated cross-polar flow at times in November and December (which is the typical way to get Arctic shots in a La Nina), and we had a relatively robust -NAO for most of December...but we've seen a mix of Pacific patterns that are different but mild for the central/eastern CONUS in their own ways and have torched when blocking relaxes.

The Pacific jet stream will weaken considerably over the next week, finally, as much lower pressure over eastern Asia (a negative mountain torque, which requires a loss of westerly atmospheric momentum/a weakening of the jet stream to compensate) and a downturn in convection over the western Pacific warm pool (resulting in less latent heat release and a weakening of the gradient over the western Pacific, also weakening the Pacific jet) both suggest a quick loss of westerly momentum over the Pacific. This is why ensembles are hinting at the trough backing away from the west coast and allowing heights to rise at least somewhat after mid-January.

My guess is we transition back to a more typical Nina pattern into February when tropical forcing returns to the western Pacific and enhances the lingering La Nina circulation, but with perhaps another one of our "brief windows" in between where we can get a ridge along the West Coast in a spot that can increase polar/arctic influence into the central and eastern CONUS for 1-2 weeks around the end of January/early February as we make that transition. 

Thanks for analysis as always. You mention February will be a more traditional Nina look with a 1-2 week window of cold as it transitions.  Are you implying a mild rest of February? Or a gradient one?  February in Nina's used to be mild, however more recently that has not been the case. In fact the last 2 have been rocking with plenty of snow.

[OHweather]

11 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thanks for analysis as always. You mention February will be a more traditional Nina look with a 1-2 week window of cold as it transitions.  Are you implying a mild rest of February? Or a gradient one?  February in Nina's used to be mild, however more recently that has not been the case. In fact the last 2 have been rocking with plenty of snow.

My guess is we go to a gradient pattern towards mid February with cold dumping into the Rockies and upper Midwest with a Southeast ridge. I think the Aleutian ridge will hold on for at least a few weeks which will keep dumping cold into North America, but usually that retrogrades after a while and ends up being a -PNA. I think we all have a crack end of January into early February…thereafter, odds probably tilt towards farther north and west being favored. 

[Baum]

^

Looking forward to my May snow.

[cyclone77]

Following the rainer for Thursday, looks like the next rainer arrives around the 16-17th.

[Stevo6899]

Nice lil system popping up on gfs for end of next week and maturing over the middle lakes, taking a favorable track for ind/tol/det. Euro weaker further se. Looks like there's a lil northern piece that swings through first, providing just enough cold air. If that moves out of the way quick enough, the main wave has room to amplify. Per euro/Canadian, it shunts the energy further se. We've seen that alot in recent years.

[Hoosier]

I mentioned the late week system in the short/medium range thread. 

Which brings up a point.  It can be a little confusing to have a thread titled short/medium range and another one titled medium/long range since both have the word medium.  I've always looked at this one as more of a long range pattern type of thread though with the short/medium range one meant for individual storm discussion.

[Stevo6899]

24 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I mentioned the late week system in the short/medium range thread. 

Which brings up a point.  It can be a little confusing to have a thread titled short/medium range and another one titled medium/long range since both have the word medium.  I've always looked at this one as more of a long range pattern type of thread though with the short/medium range one meant for individual storm discussion.

5 days out nowadays with these models seems like long term lol.

[Chicago Storm]

I mentioned the late week system in the short/medium range thread. 
Which brings up a point.  It can be a little confusing to have a thread titled short/medium range and another one titled medium/long range since both have the word medium.  I've always looked at this one as more of a long range pattern type of thread though with the short/medium range one meant for individual storm discussion.

don’t you wish you could change that?


.

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

don’t you wish you could change that?


.

Probably time for me to send out feelers again about the shadow mod thing...

[WaryWarren]

Stebo's jimmies have been rustled yet again.

[michsnowfreak]

 After the expected mild looks of week 1 and 2, week 3-6 of the weeklies look good for bringing winter back.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[hardypalmguy]

 After the expected mild looks of week 1 and 2, week 3-6 of the weeklies look good for bringing winter back.
 
 
 
 
 
 

At that range I’m better off spinning a wheel for the forecast.

[A-L-E-K]

What's ord at? Jan looking p done leaving only a couple months to go

Futility call looking $$$

[cyclone77]

6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

What's ord at? Jan looking p done leaving only a couple months to go

Futility call looking $$$

ORD/RFD at 4.5/6.1.  Even up at Dubuque they are still <10" FTS lol.

[A-L-E-K]

joe must be slant sticking to get that 4.5 

[Hoosier]

I can't entertain the big dog futility record for Chicago unless we get to mid February with very little additional snow.  

Come to think of it, one of the sad things about this winter so far is that there hasn't even been any futility to track.  First measurable snow and first inch of snow didn't happen too late, and December was sort of a run of the mill below average snow month.  I guess we could keep an eye on where January ends up, as there's only been 0.2" so far this month at ORD.  Long way to go though.

[michsnowfreak]

 Looking like a turn towards much colder weather in late January is still on track.

[Chicago Storm]

 Looking like a turn towards much colder weather in late January is still on track.

Define “much colder”.


.

[michsnowfreak]

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

Define “much colder”.


.

Meaning much colder of a pattern than we are now.  Temperatures a little colder than normal during the dead of Winter looks good to me. I don't need -30 windchills like we had a Christmas. Just give me cold and snow.

[Hoosier]

Ok, here's a futility mark for Chicago.  

Haven't had a 2" calendar day snowfall yet.  1920-21 and 1921-22 are the only 2 without one.  My grandparents were toddlers/young kids back then and probably not quite old enough to understand what was going on, but imagine being a snow lover back then.  What a brutal back to back.