Malacka11 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 We've clawed our way back to at least something worth tracking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Overnight runs p zzzz and gefs getting worse imo, still time tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Regardless of a Big Dog most models now show a swath of snow to be put down ahead of the Cold. Will be white this Christmas morning in a good part of this forum, me thinks. LOT concurs: A NOTABLE SIGNAL EXISTS IN THE OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE FOR A POTENT UPPER WAVE IN THE VICINITY ON OR ABOUT THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH OBVIOUS TIMING AND PHASING DIFFERENCES EXIST ACROSS THE GUIDANCE SUITE. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ARE RESPECTABLE AT THIS RANGE. NBM CHANCE POPS LOOKED GOOD AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH THIS LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, Baum said: Regardless of a Big Dog most models now show a swath of snow to be put down ahead of the Cold. Will be white this Christmas morning in a good part of this forum, me thinks. LOT concurs: A NOTABLE SIGNAL EXISTS IN THE OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE FOR A POTENT UPPER WAVE IN THE VICINITY ON OR ABOUT THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH OBVIOUS TIMING AND PHASING DIFFERENCES EXIST ACROSS THE GUIDANCE SUITE. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ARE RESPECTABLE AT THIS RANGE. NBM CHANCE POPS LOOKED GOOD AT THIS TIME FRAME WITH THIS LOOKING LIKE A PERIOD TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS. Literally just beat me to it. Realistically speaking don't know what more to ask for at this range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 06z GEFS looks pretty wild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 ull closes off south of i80 or bust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Going with clipper system (1-3") that blows up SE of us or near the coast to give NE big snows. Only caveat is if it blows up close enough to give lake effect enhancement to usual suspects. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The end of the NAM run looks interesting for early next week.. But it's also the end of the NAM run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 12z runs naso hot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 looks like the trough out west is trending more west on the models. The gfs is still digging and resulting in a coastal track while the canadian and icon are driving the ull much further north and sending one hell of an arctic front through. We need a combination of the gfs and the gem. Although I wouldn't mind an icon solution. Thunder and driving rain changing immediately to heavy snow, wind, and flash freeze to single digits would be fun....even if it only lasts an hour. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 So far this morning, all non-GFS models (ICON/GDPS/UK) are wildly different. They are trying to dig the trough much farther west. Just check out the UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: So far this morning, all non-GFS models are wildly different. They are trying to dig the trough much farther west. Just check out the UK I wonder if the gfs still has a bias for being too far east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 GEFS showing quite a few cutters that would make everyone happy. Why even pay attention to the OP runs at this range? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 12z runs naso hotlol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Now the 23rd looks like a Midwest Blizzard Unreal 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Lol 12z euro if only 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 It's the GFS, but today's 12Z run does have temperatures moderating toward the end of the month after the Christmas chill + whatever fun comes prior to it. Some regular posters in this sub are fans of prolonged deep freeze...I am not one of them. * Actually, looks like there is some sort of western trough/storm system involved with that...again GFS fantasy range. But from where I sit, this has been a far from boring weatherwise start to winter, although the constant cloud cover is starting to get old. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 Haven't had a chance to put out much in the way of thoughts regarding the final 1/3rd of December, but a quick glance at ENS guidance will tell you all you need to know... We transition from current cold period, to a mix of cool/mild for next week, and likely into early January as well. If you're looking for a quality snow pattern, good luck...You'll need to bank on thread the needle opportunities, even into early January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Haven't had a chance to put out much in the way of thoughts regarding the final 1/3rd of December, but a quick glance at ENS guidance will tell you all you need to know... We transition from current cold period, to a mix of cool/mild for next week, and likely into early January as well. If you're looking for a quality snow pattern, good luck...You'll need to bank on thread the needle opportunities, even into early January. Id be very shocked if we get anything for at least 2 weeks maybe even longer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, Stebo said: Id be very shocked if we get anything for at least 2 weeks maybe even longer. Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 yep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Haven't had a chance to put out much in the way of thoughts regarding the final 1/3rd of December, but a quick glance at ENS guidance will tell you all you need to know... We transition from current cold period, to a mix of cool/mild for next week, and likely into early January as well. If you're looking for a quality snow pattern, good luck...You'll need to bank on thread the needle opportunities, even into early January. Cromartie approved 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Haven't had a chance to put out much in the way of thoughts regarding the final 1/3rd of December, but a quick glance at ENS guidance will tell you all you need to know... We transition from current cold period, to a mix of cool/mild for next week, and likely into early January as well. If you're looking for a quality snow pattern, good luck...You'll need to bank on thread the needle opportunities, even into early January.January is going to be a torch month overall. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 early feb will be rocking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 8 hours ago, hardypalmguy said: January is going to be a torch month overall. . Thanks for the in-depth meteorological reasoning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 11 hours ago, Stebo said: Id be very shocked if we get anything for at least 2 weeks maybe even longer. Agree, turn off until Jan 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Will hope cold pattern reloads mid month for another window of wintry opportunity. Definitely this system another let down along with watching Illini basketball last night. One of the worst performances in 40 yrs of following them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Probs not thread worthy but I’m bullish next week’s clipper for widespread 1-3” and lollipops of 4”+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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