Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

at least this one shit the bed before we got a thread going

[ChiTownSnow]

Call me crazy I guess, but I actually think it's a step in the right direction over the last few GFS runs.   

Especially given what we just saw with the most recent storm, If you assume that the GFS is too aggressive and fast with the Arctic front, then everything pulls back west again

[buckeye]

Lol and the Canadian says what storm?

[Chicago Storm]

ya’ll are never gonna learn.


.

[JayPSU]

With so much run to run variance, can we really take any solution seriously at this point?

[CoachLB]

i think the 12z GFS is on it. GA special.

[JayPSU]

1 minute ago, ILSNOW said:

meaning toss the GFS?

Meaning, I wouldn't take any of this to the bank.  

[Radtechwxman]

10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

ya’ll are never gonna learn.


.

Not to get our hopes up for a good storm in long range or not get sucked in run to run on every model or both? Ha

[buckeye]

3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Not to get our hopes up for a good storm in long range or not get sucked in run to run on every model or both? Ha

It’s basically what we do.  Why else come here?  

also ukmet looks like it would go in a completely different direction with the pna ridge offf shore and trough much further west…. That would probably be Chicago special.

[Baum]

21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

ya’ll are never gonna learn.


.

yup.

[Radtechwxman]

2 minutes ago, buckeye said:

It’s basically what we do.  Why else come here?  

also ukmet looks like it would go in a completely different direction with the pna ridge offf shore and trough much further west…. That would probably be Chicago special.

Right?! Wishcasting keeps the forum lively. Definitely eager to see how this pattern shift pans out. Would be a shame to see all this cold air go to waste but wouldn't be first time. Ha

[ChiTownSnow]

Let's also see what happens with the 19th-20th . Once that becomes clearer may help sort everything out 

[A-L-E-K]

first potential event in the post hoosier era

good opportunity for joe to pad his mod resume

[Powerball]

12z GFS has a nice dumping for Atlanta and Charlotte, lol...

[Powerball]

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

definitely a thread the needle...but when aren't they?

options

1.  strung out fast moving northern stream sends a run-of-the-mill cold front (gfs 6z)

2. potent northern stream digs to TN valley and sets up a coastal and we are in the donut-hole smoking cirrus

3. something in between, (euro)

At least it appears there won't be precip-type issues.  Even if someone starts as rain it would be a quick turnover.

A blend of #2 and #3 would be on-brand with how most systems have evolved in the post-GHD era...

[cyclone77]

31 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

i think the 12z GFS is on it. GA special.

I look forward to Spartan's maps.

[CheeselandSkies]

9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

first potential event in the post hoosier era

good opportunity for joe to pad his mod resume

Hoosier daddy?

[RogueWaves]

4 hours ago, Powerball said:

12z GFS has a nice dumping for Atlanta and Charlotte, lol...

The bigger the potential the bigger the swing and misses for that upgraded, late to the game POS model

Edit - not minding where I sit attm

[ChiTownSnow]

Per GFS, the 20th is looking more and more interesting

[ChiTownSnow]

GFS = baby steps in right direction 

[A-L-E-K]

17 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

GFS = baby steps in right direction 

Impossible 2 argue 

[Chicago Storm]

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

first potential event in the post hoosier era

good opportunity for joe to pad his mod resume

i'm not sure how to feel about that.

[buckeye]

25 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

GFS = baby steps in right direction 

Forget about it…. DT saw the 12z gfs and is barking like a rabid dog.  This is not just a coastal but a BFD (his words), and he’s even cutting a special vid.   Any future runs showing a further nw solution will be deemed as defying physics and you will be instructed to ignore.

[Chicago Storm]

The main wave is currently located within a large trough, off the coast of Japan. Also add in the countless other pieces/players still in flux.

Good luck figuring things out for several days yet.

[A-L-E-K]

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

The main wave is currently located within a large trough, off the coast of Japan. Then add in the countless other pieces/players still in flux.

Good luck figuring things out for several days yet.

Counterpoint: final calls by Sunday or gtfo

[Stebo]

50 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The main wave is currently located within a large trough, off the coast of Japan. Then add in the countless other pieces/players still in flux.

Good luck figuring things out for several days yet.

Yeah, this is a multiple pronged event, there is easily the potential of it being nothing or being what the euro showed last night. What I do expect is for the southern stream to slow some and the northern stream to speed up some. Will that leave enough of a pocket for some wave separation and a storm, remains to be seen.

[Cary67]

Seasonal snow totals so far.

[hardypalmguy]

The main wave is currently located within a large trough, off the coast of Japan. Also add in the countless other pieces/players still in flux.
Good luck figuring things out for several days yet.

So rain it is?

[hardypalmguy]

Seasonal snow totals so far.

Lake influence is awesome for keeping things rain.

[OHweather]

Ton of uncertainty here, as others have mentioned the shortwave that will cause all this is still entangled in a larger trough. That said, some trends to watch...the reason we're seeing many suppressed solutions in the op runs (with many ensemble members also suppressed) is they have too broad of a ridge out west extending into the southern Plains, which doesn't allow the shortwave to dig as much and "round the corner" as quickly. While the NAO block has trended stronger and is pinning a large trough over southeastern Canada, it still is located far enough north that the shortwave does have room to dig, if it's amplified enough and if the ridge out west isn't too broad. Those are certainly trends that we've seen before, so it's possible this trends in a more amplified direction.

Have lost some of the huge cutter solutions and there's definitely a trend for more members to jump to the coast quicker. However, still many deep solutions over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, so while trends over the last day or two may have been somewhat unfavorable for a big storm in this sub-forum, I wouldn't rule out some trend back in the other direction yet.

Even if we don't see a big storm, have to feel that such a large upper-level trough and Arctic front would bring some light snow from all the jet support and squalls along the front to a large portion of the region.