RogueWaves Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Been waiting like 5 years for him to post CAW - just once 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 deep extended after the mid week rainer doesn't look terrible the much hyped rocking late december? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: deep extended after the mid week rainer doesn't look terrible the much hyped rocking late december? nothing will happen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 On 12/7/2022 at 4:32 AM, A-L-E-K said: Looks like a return to cad after the rainer next week, brutal run 3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: deep extended after the mid week rainer doesn't look terrible the much hyped rocking late december? 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 on track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 I know I've been around for merely a small fraction of how long you record keepers have been, but I'm pretty sure a map like this would turn our heads even in the Jan-Feb make up periods we've been having the last few years. But before Christmas? Fantasy or not, it's nice to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Looks like we'll get a day filled with backwash snow showers and flurries behind the big rainer next week. At least it will look wintry for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 13 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I know I've been around for merely a small fraction of how long you record keepers have been, but I'm pretty sure a map like this would turn our heads even in the Jan-Feb make up periods we've been having the last few years. But before Christmas? Fantasy or not, it's nice to see. Love the big void over OHV/S GL's. Scraps and left-overs map compared to those west/NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Love the big void over OHV/S GL's. Scraps and left-overs map compared to those west/NW We don't want to be in the bullseye of a day 16 total map, history has taught us that doesnt work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 3 hours ago, Malacka11 said: I know I've been around for merely a small fraction of how long you record keepers have been, but I'm pretty sure a map like this would turn our heads even in the Jan-Feb make up periods we've been having the last few years. But before Christmas? Fantasy or not, it's nice to see. Its nice to see WI is still in play for that storm next week. I figured it would cut way up into Canada. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Latest runs are a snooze-fest through 240. Not even a fantasy storm for eye candy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 xmas cad on that op run, hate to see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 You'd think this would be a great look in the MW/GL, given the mean trough being in a decent spot (a bit west) to avoid storms being suppressed. But it seems like no Day 8+ fantasy storms are showing up on the op runs yet. Or, my interpretation of the map could be wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: You'd think this would be a great look in the MW/GL, given the mean trough being in a decent spot (a bit west) to avoid storms being suppressed. But it seems like no Day 8+ fantasy storms are showing up on the op runs yet. Or, my interpretation of the map could be wrong... GEFS/EPS at face value, it's one of the best looking potential Dec patterns in years. But that's at face value, and we know how ENS ended up doing a 180 for the period we are in now. So maybe cautious optimism, but there's a fine line between cold/active and CAD. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 19 hours ago, Stebo said: We don't want to be in the bullseye of a day 16 total map, history has taught us that doesnt work out. I suppose. One thing for sure, it will change and maybe on the very next run. Prolly snag some white stuff when a clipper pops-up out of nowhere like last Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 GEFS/EPS at face value, it's one of the best looking potential Dec patterns in years. But that's at face value, and we know how ENS ended up doing a 180 for the period we are in now. So maybe cautious optimism, but there's a fine line between cold/active and CAD.Yep, get that pattern within day 10 and it would be surprising to not get a solid event or two. Would think some vigorous clipper/hybrid type systems would be a decent bet too with that look, and those will not be well modeled at extended lead times either.Regarding most recent ensemble runs, both the EPS and GEFS look solid, though would prefer the GEFS because it holds onto positive 500 mb height anomalies in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Both ensemble systems indicate the EPO ridge being far enough west to not point toward CAD at this time though as Joe noted it can be a fine line. For the first Decembers since 2016-17, there's hope for winter weather prior to Christmas. Main message is patience and try to stay away from the op runs out beyond day 7-8. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 Running a day or two later than I wanted to get this out, but nonetheless... The middle 1/3rd of December (10-20th) will sort of be a transitional period. The well advertised Plains storm system for next week will be a rainer for many (Backside snow potential?), though there will most definitely be some accumulating snow across MN/WI/MI. That snow potential and the fact that any push of mild temperatures will be very muted/confined to the southern half of the sub-forum, will be thanks to the continued significant -NAO/Greenland block and associated 50/50 low that will be in place across the Northeast/Southeast Canada/adjacent Atlantic. So anyone that was onboard the mild for days or super mild temperatures train, be prepared to be derailed. Beyond the aforementioned storm system for next week, the final half of this middle 1/3rd of December is when see things start to take shape. We will slide into an -EPO/-AO/-NAO/N to -PNA pattern, with a SWE occurring as well (SPV on the move from Siberia to Greenland. This should lead to an overall colder temperature pattern for the closing days of this middle of the month period, but whether it's CAD or cold and active is still TBD. This pattern as of now would then continue into Christmas week. As mentioned in another thread post, this is probably one of the best looking patterns on paper that the GEFS/EPS have shown in years for December. However, after the 180 flip for the pattern in the current period we are in, caution should definitely be taken. We'll see how it goes. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 ^ Greatly appreciate these write ups. My take: on track for some real winter over holiday period. Forecast: "oh the weather outside is frightful, and the fire looks so delightful,Let it snow, Let It Snow, Let it snow." 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Agreed! The professional insight, and pause, these guys offer is greatly appreciated. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 well I guess the NAO is negative, specifically if think that one of the ways to express the NAO index is the SLP anomaly in Ponta Delgada, Azores Islands, minus the SLP anomaly in Iceland and the AO index, which is effectively calculated by SLP (really, 1000mb heights) shows a very negative value today December 1-8 analysis shows a strong negative NAO value and yet the eastern USA had higher than normal heights at 500mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 No wonder people don't call the GFS the GooFuS for nothing. Don't look at today's 18z GFS unless you are really expecting the "pattern change" to really occur on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 We got this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 My call is won't be 60 on Christmas this year. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 If we can just get something special to come in on the front end of this, we'll be golden! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 I'd much rather have the suppression that the GFS is selling this far out, than the big GLC at this point. Plenty of time for the ol'e NW turn and will our way into a Great lakes cutter GFS verbatim looks like true CAD though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 56 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: I'd much rather have the suppression that the GFS is selling this far out, than the big GLC at this point. Plenty of time for the ol'e NW turn and will our way into a Great lakes cutter GFS verbatim looks like true CAD though. Why would you want cold and dry? If it ain't gonna snow, let it rain and torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 Why would you want cold and dry? If it ain't gonna snow, let it rain and torch. re-read what the post said.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 24 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Why would you want cold and dry? If it ain't gonna snow, let it rain and torch. I'm not saying I do, or it will be. I'm saying I'd rather have the model show that this far and have it back off a bit vs showing confluence setting up around I-80 as ND the we n hope it pushes further 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: I'm not saying I do, or it will be. I'm saying I'd rather have the model show that this far and have it back off a bit vs showing confluence setting up around I-80 as ND the we n hope it pushes further Ahh gotcha. I hope you're right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 There's a "non-zero" chance of waves pre-Christmas for the KC-->ORD-->DTW Peeps. Colder antecedent temps should make anything that tries less of a thread-the-needle scenario than this past system. That's the extent of my optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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