Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Chicago Storm]

I wanted to get some thoughts out regarding the first 1/3rd of December a few days ago, but haven't had the chance with the holiday and some other thing going on. Hope to have something more out today or tomorrow, but shall see. In the mean-time tough, the tldr version will be...

-The first 1/3rd of December (1-10th), as many can see now, will feature a solid mix of mild/cool temps across the sub-forum, with the coldest temps north and warmest south. With anticipated PV lobe movement to the Hudson/Ontario coast in canada and significant NAO progression, we should see the colder temps being most significant and widespread late in this opening 1/3rd of the month, and into the beginning of the middle 1/3rd of the month. 

-The best snow opportunity with the next two storm systems (early/mid this week & this weekend) will be across the northern half of the sub-forum, the the PV still across Northern Canada and a solid -PNA and associated ridge. As we head into next week, we will probably see the best alignment possible for PV lobe interaction with the continued -PNA. That would be the potential time to watch for something of more interest across the sub-forum. To wrap up this beginning 1/3rd of the month, we should see a turn towards a period of WNW/NW flow, given the aforementioned PV movement.

[Stebo]

My worry with the upcoming pattern is unless you are down wind of the lakes, it might be going from wet and warm to cold and dry with no snow.

[RCNYILWX]

Need a banter thread. Surprised no one posted about the 12z GFS - actual potential in not clown range. But in all seriousness, the 12z GEFS does have an intriguing look later next week, which would fit in the window Joe alluded to on the Medium LR thread. Beyond that, we'll see if things go to a favorable pattern for decent clippers/Pac hybrids. Overnight ENS pointed in that direction.

Attached is the composite mean 500 mb heights for December 2010. That had a bigger system (the Metrodome roof crusher) on the 11th-12th then trended to a good clipper pattern through the holidays. It was a Niña with a high end NAO block. We'll see if we have a relatively similar progression this month. The NAO block should have staying power given the forecast magnitude, so if snow can be put down it'll likely stick around.


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[Stebo]

Yeah the one thing I am seeing is that the NAO doesn't get locked in place, so it very well could be a case that everyone in the east gets something decent after the 15th of the month.

Main thing is keeping the Pacific sending waves into the SW part of the country and not cut them off there.

[buckeye]

15 hours ago, Stebo said:

Yeah the one thing I am seeing is that the NAO doesn't get locked in place, so it very well could be a case that everyone in the east gets something decent after the 15th of the month.

Main thing is keeping the Pacific sending waves into the SW part of the country and not cut them off there.

I've never seen 500 maps as crazy as they've been.   Everything is fast moving and blocky at the same time.  If you do model run comparisons beyond 120 hours, the changes and differences are night and day run to run..   Gotta be a nightmare for forecasters.

[Chicago Storm]

27 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I've never seen 500 maps as crazy as they've been.   Everything is fast moving and blocky at the same time.  If you do model run comparisons beyond 120 hours, the changes and differences are night and day run to run..   Gotta be a nightmare for forecasters.

It's a f***** up situation/pattern, to say the least.

[Stebo]

2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

It's a f***** up situation/pattern, to say the least.

Its also an incredibly changeable one run to run even on ensembles. Getting a feeling we may not know what happens until its almost right upon us over the next 3 weeks.

[Baum]

amateur viewpoint. I think this is good. From small things,good things come. beat ya too it ww.

[michsnowfreak]

I'm as guilty as anyone else in complaining about the models every year, but I can honestly say I have never seen more run to run variability than we've been seeing lately. Not just in the op runs (that's not so unusual), but even the ensemble means.

[Stebo]

This is a lot of the reason why the models are struggling with the PNA and how it will end up being:

 

Now for most of us a negative or neutral PNA is perfectly fine. Ohio probably would want a positive PNA though.

[Chicago Storm]

On 12/3/2022 at 6:00 PM, Stebo said:

This is a lot of the reason why the models are struggling with the PNA and how it will end up being:

 

Now for most of us a negative or neutral PNA is perfectly fine. Ohio probably would want a positive PNA though.

The PNA is only part of it though. The whole handling of the PV lobe in Canada has done a 180 over the past week, which is also a main driver of the pattern.

Instead of a colder and not as active (For bigger storm systems) WNW/NW flow pattern with the PV lobe stuck beneath the NAO block (Sort of rex block-like), we get a quickly retreating PV lobe back up towards the Arctic and a more cool/mild and more active pattern (For bigger storm systems).

[Stebo]

On 12/5/2022 at 3:20 PM, Chicago Storm said:

The PNA is only part of it though. The whole handling of the PV lobe in Canada has done a 180 over the past week, which is also a main driver of the pattern.

Instead of a colder and not as active (For bigger storm systems) WNW/NW flow pattern with the PV lobe stuck beneath the NAO block (Sort of rex block-like), we get a quickly retreating PV lobe back up towards the Arctic and a more cool/mild and more active pattern (For bigger storm systems).

Yeah the blocking across Canada is disappearing fast, going to be a warm pattern I think.

[Chicago Storm]

2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah the blocking across Canada is disappearing fast, going to be a warm pattern I think.

Still doesn't look warm, but more-so a continued mild/cool back and forth.

[Stebo]

10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Still doesn't look warm, but more-so a continued mild/cool back and forth.

Mild enough to be rain for most of us.

[michsnowfreak]

While the circus of models continue their indecisiveness....it does appear that mid month amd beyond looks more wintry. Hopefully translates to a white Christmas for most of us.

[madwx]

I wonder if we’ll get a repeat of last year where northern Minnesota was an icebox compared to the rest of the region

[Frog Town]

The only way I'll forgive this cluster #$%@ of a pattern is if we get buried Christmas Week, otherwise I'm giving up on this shitty start to the Winter....

One month down 2 to go I guess.

 

Where the hell is the banter thread!  It's never been needed more sub forum wide.  

[Malacka11]

IIRC last year we didn't even have any storms to track before Christmas so personally I'm happy we are least have a system thread open.

[Baum]

15 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

The only way I'll forgive this cluster #$%@ of a pattern is if we get buried Christmas Week, otherwise I'm giving up on this shitty start to the Winter....

One month down 2 to go I guess.

 

Where the hell is the banter thread!  It's never been needed more sub forum wide.  

hit the counselor's thread. It's December 5th and winter is going as it should. Prior to Thanksgiving we've seen a major invasion of cold, record breaking lake snows and measurable snow already through the Ozarks and Louisville, Ky. And Toledo as well. Reality bites. 

[Chicago Storm]

On 12/6/2022 at 4:42 PM, Frog Town said:

Where the hell is the banter thread!  It's never been needed more sub forum wide.  

there was a fall banter thread, but not a winter one yet. so i went ahead and created one.

[Chicago Storm]

21 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

IIRC last year we didn't even have any storms to track before Christmas so personally I'm happy we are least have a system thread open.

There was nothing of note for most prior to Christmas last year. There were two threads created (One in early Dec & one in Nov), but both events faded well in advance. Outside of that, not much happened either, other than up north near Duluth/UP-land.

Going back two winters ago, to the start of winter 2020/2021... We also only had two thread worthy events prior to Christmas, which did end up producing for areas of MN/WI/MI.

So we are already ahead of where we were pretty much the last two winters. So far this season we have had that surprise event about a month ago across MO/IL/IN/KY, and then the lighter event further north up around here a few weeks ago. Minnesota/N WI/N MI have obviously had several events too. Then add in the upcoming Thur/Friday event for somewhere.

[michsnowfreak]

42 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

IIRC last year we didn't even have any storms to track before Christmas so personally I'm happy we are least have a system thread open.

Last year, we lucked into back to back snowfalls Nov 27-29 (4.3" + 2.0") but as I recall they were isolated to just southern Michigan. Dec 2020 was also very flukey to SE MI.  We basically had average snowfall while everyone else had a dumpster fire. I want to be buried all winter, but if the snow gods must I'll sacrifice another 200-300% of average snowfall February for some better times in the mid December to mid January timeframe.

[Chicago Storm]

On 11/28/2022 at 4:54 PM, Chicago Storm said:

I wanted to get some thoughts out regarding the first 1/3rd of December a few days ago, but haven't had the chance with the holiday and some other thing going on. Hope to have something more out today or tomorrow, but shall see. In the mean-time tough, the tldr version will be...

-The first 1/3rd of December (1-10th), as many can see now, will feature a solid mix of mild/cool temps across the sub-forum, with the coldest temps north and warmest south. With anticipated PV lobe movement to the Hudson/Ontario coast in canada and significant NAO progression, we should see the colder temps being most significant and widespread late in this opening 1/3rd of the month, and into the beginning of the middle 1/3rd of the month. 

-The best snow opportunity with the next two storm systems (early/mid this week & this weekend) will be across the northern half of the sub-forum, the the PV still across Northern Canada and a solid -PNA and associated ridge. As we head into next week, we will probably see the best alignment possible for PV lobe interaction with the continued -PNA. That would be the potential time to watch for something of more interest across the sub-forum. To wrap up this beginning 1/3rd of the month, we should see a turn towards a period of WNW/NW flow, given the aforementioned PV movement.

Portions of this first 1/3rd of the month are going as planned, and other portions are not (Bolded parts of the above quoted previous post are what will not be working out). As has been mentioned in other threads, a big fail point for the upcoming times is going to be medium/long range guidance failing horribly with the handling of things, especially the PV lobe in Canada. This is the first time medium/long range informaton has performed this badly since this past spring. The MJO movement, which has been a big signal for the pattern for far this season, has also not been as helpful in this case.

Instead of the Canadian PV lobe parking on the south Hudson coast beneath the NAO block, we are seeing it instead make a brief appearance there, before quickly returning back north to the Arctic. What this means for late in this opening 1/3rd of the month and continuing into the middle 1/3rd of the month, is instead of a pattern featuring more consisently/widespread colder temps and a WNW/NW flow pattern that would likely not be as active or conducive to big storms... We end up with more a mild/cool temp pattern, and a pattern that is more active and supportive of bigger storm systems.

Will have more thought on the middle 1/3rd of the month in its entirety soon.

[Chicago Storm]

4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Portions of this first 1/3rd of the month are going as planned, and other portions are not (Bolded parts of the above quoted previous post are what will not be working out). As has been mentioned in other threads, a big fail point for the upcoming times is going to be medium/long range guidance failing horribly with the handling of things, especially the PV lobe in Canada. This is the first time medium/long range informaton has performed this badly since this past spring. The MJO movement, which has been a big signal for the pattern for far this season, has also not been as helpful in this case.

Instead of the Canadian PV lobe parking on the south Hudson coast beneath the NAO block, we are seeing it instead make a brief appearance there, before quickly returning back north to the Arctic. What this means for late in this opening 1/3rd of the month and continuing into the middle 1/3rd of the month, is instead of a pattern featuring more consisently/widespread colder temps and a WNW/NW flow pattern that would likely not be as active or conducive to big storms... We end up with more a mild/cool temp pattern, and a pattern that is more active and supportive of bigger storm systems.

Will have more thought on the middle 1/3rd of the month in its entirety soon.

Should add an image comparison of the pattern, from what it looked like previously (Top) to what it is expected to look like now (Bottom).

[Baum]

44 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Portions of this first 1/3rd of the month are going as planned, and other portions are not (Bolded parts of the above quoted previous post are what will not be working out). As has been mentioned in other threads, a big fail point for the upcoming times is going to be medium/long range guidance failing horribly with the handling of things, especially the PV lobe in Canada. This is the first time medium/long range informaton has performed this badly since this past spring. The MJO movement, which has been a big signal for the pattern for far this season, has also not been as helpful in this case.

Instead of the Canadian PV lobe parking on the south Hudson coast beneath the NAO block, we are seeing it instead make a brief appearance there, before quickly returning back north to the Arctic. What this means for late in this opening 1/3rd of the month and continuing into the middle 1/3rd of the month, is instead of a pattern featuring more consisently/widespread colder temps and a WNW/NW flow pattern that would likely not be as active or conducive to big storms... We end up with more a mild/cool temp pattern, and a pattern that is more active and supportive of bigger storm systems.

Will have more thought on the middle 1/3rd of the month in its entirety soon.

setting the table.

[Stebo]

3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Should add an image comparison of the pattern, from what it looked like previously (Top) to what it is expected to look like now (Bottom).

Pacific is wildly different

[RogueWaves]

4 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Last year, we lucked into back to back snowfalls Nov 27-29 (4.3" + 2.0") but as I recall they were isolated to just southern Michigan. Dec 2020 was also very flukey to SE MI.  We basically had average snowfall while everyone else had a dumpster fire. I want to be buried all winter, but if the snow gods must I'll sacrifice another 200-300% of average snowfall February for some better times in the mid December to mid January timeframe.

Mostly SEMI actually. They weren't even that great in GR and WMI. Thought we were off to a great start last year, but the white Thanksgiving = brown Christmas rang truer than ever. See if this year wants to repeat that mantra. 

[A-L-E-K]

Looks like a return to cad after the rainer next week, brutal run

[hardypalmguy]

14 hours ago, Frog Town said:

The only way I'll forgive this cluster #$%@ of a pattern is if we get buried Christmas Week, otherwise I'm giving up on this shitty start to the Winter....

One month down 2 to go I guess.

 

Where the hell is the banter thread!  It's never been needed more sub forum wide.  

this pattern is my perfect winter pattern.

[Chicago Storm]

9 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Looks like a return to cad after the rainer next week, brutal run

ricky lol'd at your thought that we have had a period of cad at any point so far.