Daniel Boone Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: There are ingredients (just spitballing) for a multi-wave over-running event for somewhere in the forum area sometime between the 17th and Christmas. If the GEFS can be believed(huge IF), the over-running characteristic are readily apparent. The gradient sets east-west over the forum area, and then the GOM moisture runs along it. The CMC is suppressed, but it has been overdoing the cold of late. Chance are that gradient is north of where it has it. The ICON has that look. Somewhere between the great bend of the TN River in Alabama and the Ohio...there is a chance for a gradient winter storm. Cosgrove is honking for a major snowstorm just before Christmas for the Apps to Ohio Valley. As some know on here, Coz has been in the business many years and is an expert in LR and Pattern recognition. He, imo, is an ef hutton of Meteorology. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 I'm on the app in Chrome on a Android phone. None of these ads were here last year but now every page of posts is flooded by ads.AW has a App now?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Jump right in. We need more folks from middle and west TN. Looks like a nice set-up incoming. Models are going to understandably have a difficult time. Euro hangs-up the cold in the Plains - I think the cold gets further east and I would think its ensemble will show that. This is the type of signal we saw when west TN got hammered a few years back. It’s always nice having people west of us for live opps. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 The 18z GFS is trying to turn out my power on Christmas Eve-eve. The GFS is again advertising an over-running event. No idea if I trust the model, but it has had some consistency in showing that run to run. My guess is that will shift to middle and west...but who knows with that block suppressing things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 18z GFS is trying to turn out my power on Christmas Eve-eve. The GFS is again advertising an over-running event. No idea if I trust the model, but it has had some consistency in showing that run to run. My guess is that will shift to middle and west...but who knows with that block suppressing things. Yeah, the block may be the difference maker here, depending on how deep the trough is out west, however. If there's a deep trough still out there it could cause the boundary to be more ene oriented and cause frozen precip to be relegated to our north and west. Hopefully, we get a west, east boundary and the entire forum cashes in . IF there is an ene orientation, hopefully it'll be far enough south to still get the area in the frozen zone. I've witnessed that on several occasions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 11, 2022 Author Share Posted December 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, the block may be the difference maker here, depending on how deep the trough is out west, however. If there's a deep trough still out there it could cause the boundary to be more ene oriented and cause frozen precip to be relegated to our north and west. Hopefully, we get a west, east boundary and the entire forum cashes in . IF there is an ene orientation, hopefully it'll be far enough south to still get the area in the frozen zone. I've witnessed that on several occasions. We need a strong block and a slight SER. I think we get both. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: We need a strong block and a slight SER. I think we get both. Agree. I'm feeling pretty confident. We've been burned so many times it's tough to be though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 41 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Agree. I'm feeling pretty confident. We've been burned so many times it's tough to be though. Oh yeah, for sure. Looks like our best chances are the week prior to Christmas and maybe just after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 I will be glad to share some GFS/GEFS stuff, but we probably should have everyone sign a waiver before viewing them. LOL. The 18z CFSv2 says, "What January thaw?" 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: I will be glad to share some GFS/GEFS stuff, but we probably should have everyone sign a waiver before viewing them. LOL. The 18z CFSv2 says, "What January thaw?" I signed that waver when I created my account. Spill it Carvers! 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 I’m a glass half empty on overrunning events. First thing I think of is 33° and rain. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Where oh where have we seen this axis before??? Seems like the last 2 years have had this kind of banking axis against the Apps. In lala land so its probably moot but I was just struck by the familiarity. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 30 minutes ago, Bigbald said: Where oh where have we seen this axis before??? Seems like the last 2 years have had this kind of banking axis against the Apps. In lala land so its probably moot but I was just struck by the familiarity. yeah. we have a difference maker this time that hopefully will project that further east. Gfs is terrible with upstream blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Regardless of the specific outcome, the GFS REALLY wants a big storm somewhere in our forum area around the 23rd. Seems like its been trying to show something since that period came into range. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Regardless of the specific outcome, the GFS REALLY wants a big storm somewhere in our forum area around the 23rd. Seems like its been trying to show something since that period came into range. True. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Regardless of the specific outcome, the GFS REALLY wants a big storm somewhere in our forum area around the 23rd. Seems like its been trying to show something since that period came into range. I’m traveling in from Maryland to Tennessee on the 22nd leaving on the 30th. Will visit to Knoxville Nashville ending up in Gatlinburg before heading home. I bringing the snow!!! . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Bigbald said: Where oh where have we seen this axis before??? Seems like the last 2 years have had this kind of banking axis against the Apps. In lala land so its probably moot but I was just struck by the familiarity. Textbook La Nina storm track....I couldn't draw it up any better. The upcoming wx pattern is just screaming for that track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just glancing at the GEFS out through 300.................... on TT. Pattern looks good to possibly great, although that doesn't mean we have to score here in the Tennessee Valley. Near perfect patterns can have misses. It's something we do very well......... Massive west based -NAO will likely linger a bit more than shown (LOVE the look of the highest heights centered around Baffin Bay - it's a good location for our area if you want the possibility of winter). The move to a -EPO, -AO and +PNA as the pattern progresses makes sense given what I'm seeing. This could introduce cross polar flow at some point. What we know at this point is the likelihood of a winter event in the southeast is on the rise. Figuring out which threat may prompt a dedicated thread is still up for debate. I'm just looking forward to having something to track. That said, I don't want any part of an ice storm. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Textbook La Nina storm track....I couldn't draw it up any better. The upcoming wx pattern is just screaming for that track. Pulling for all but that track would smack me good. East Tenn would be in ice it looks like. Hopefully we all get the right track for snow. I have to say the possibilities have me excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, snowmaker said: Pulling for all but that track would smack me good. East Tenn would be in ice it looks like. Hopefully we all get the right track for snow. I have to say the possibilities have me excited. The pattern as shown would likely be a better one for you sooner than for the plateau and points east in TN. This is a lot of speculation of course and is based on how similar patterns have behaved, but a pattern like the one shown will usually hit areas from Arkansas to west (and possibly middle) Tennessee before our area. As the boundary presses south and east we'd wait for a follower to have our fun. If the pattern fully matures as shown on the ensembles, it wouldn't surprise me to see a larger part of Tennessee have a winter opportunity. I guess what I'm saying in a nutshell is you could potentially have fun toward the front end of the pattern change and also other opportunities as the pattern matures, before the pattern shown runs out of gas and then we all wait for the next iteration of a pattern that could produce a winter system for the southeast. I grew up in Gallatin, so living northwest of Nashville puts you in a good spot as compared to areas to your south and east. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 The 12z Euro and 12z GFS are in agreement for d9-10? LOL. Pattern is loaded up in about ten days(where have we heard that before?!). In all seriousness, it does look good. I have said for a while, I like the Plateau westward for this. But last tnwxnut stated, just depends on where the boundary sets up. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 The Euro Weeklies....Yup. Will post more later. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Where oh where have we seen this axis before??? Seems like the last 2 years have had this kind of banking axis against the Apps. In lala land so its probably moot but I was just struck by the familiarity.Are you local to Big Bald? Just curious, I live on the SE slope of it. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Wonder if the GFS is gonna be actually close to what its showing on the thermals around Christmas,Thats some height drops in East Asia,havent seen that in a few years. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Looking more likely as we get into the 3rd week of Dec we could see a stretch of days not even getting above freezing...JMHO.We'll pay the piper it seems as we get into Jan the way the MJO is looking,hopefully we can get some snow out of this before.Be a shame if we dont 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 18z GFS gives TN a nice I 40 storm at hr 174. Ideal levels of suppression at range after that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Well, this pattern is certainly ripe for some surprises. I've been caught up with the Christmas period and the 18z GFS says, what about next week instead? Seriously seems like something could easily pop up in a few days notice. Not too concerned about details as it seems to be in flux from run to run. Hopefully we can all score the next couple of weeks! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Looking more likely as we get into the 3rd week of Dec we could see a stretch of days not even getting above freezing...JMHO.We'll pay the piper it seems as we get into Jan the way the MJO is looking,hopefully we can get some snow out of this before.Be a shame if we dont Jax, hopefully the mjo can continue to move along and not get stuck in warm phases or stall there. I know its la niña, but trying to be optimistic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 53 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Jax, hopefully the mjo can continue to move along and not get stuck in warm phases or stall there. I know its la niña, but trying to be optimistic. If it weren't for the Nina, with the strong HLB we'd already be in business Winter weather wise. Hopefully the SST'S in the western PAC will become more conducive for better and stronger MJO progression in cold Phases as we move forward this Winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I’ll start believing when we hear it thunder on Wednesday . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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