Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Euro had an interesting take on the big system next week: Might could be not bad for upslope? The rest of that pattern doesn't look too bad either. I think this storm window is the same one the GFS called like 10 days ago, but had it as a storm moving WSW into Norfolk: Speaking of the GFS, it looks pretty similar to the Euro in the window: I know I just posted that time frame at 500 mb yesterday afternoon, but I fully expected it to be 100% different on the GFS this morning with how that model has been swinging lately. At least this is a dollop of consistency. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 The OP GFS wasn't great as it tries to dump the cold into Mexico and it struggles to move East. Other models, including the GEFS not so much and the cold progresses East just fine. I've seen some mets talking about the GFS having major long range warm bias issues with the new version. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 The cold arrives around the 15th and looks like it sticks around as we approach Christmas on the Ens. We get a snow event on the Canadian just after the shift to cold. The GEFS puts some of the coldest air, relative to normal, in the world into the Lower 48 as we approach the 1st day of solar winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 One thing we can say, is at least the pattern can kicking seems to have stopped, at least for now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: I've seen some mets talking about the GFS having major long range warm bias issues with the new version. Maybe they put something in its algorithm from way back in the FV3 days when it used to produce those wild snow storms late in its run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 11 minutes ago, John1122 said: The OP GFS wasn't great as it tries to dump the cold into Mexico and it struggles to move East. Other models, including the GEFS not so much and the cold progresses East just fine. I've seen some mets talking about the GFS having major long range warm bias issues with the new version. Yeah ive been reading a lot in the New England forum and several mets are saying that the new GFS is doing a horrendous job with the blocking and just basically the whole flow of things. I can tell it's taken a hit because there is absolutely no run to run continuity with the models since the upgrade. Why upgrade a model with poorer performance.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 41 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Maybe they put something in its algorithm from way back in the FV3 days when it used to produce those wild snow storms late in its run. 34 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah ive been reading a lot in the New England forum and several mets are saying that the new GFS is doing a horrendous job with the blocking and just basically the whole flow of things. I can tell it's taken a hit because there is absolutely no run to run continuity with the models since the upgrade. Why upgrade a model with poorer performance.... I've noticed it, even before the upgrade, struggling with long range temperature extremes. I remember it went on a streak of advertising desert southwest temps for the middle part of the country in September. The heatwave happened but the GFS was 5-10 degrees too warm with it when it saw it in the longer ranges. Winter is much more volatile and even harder to predict from day to day, because temperatures can vary much more greatly in winter vs summer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: I've noticed it, even before the upgrade, struggling with long range temperature extremes. I remember it went on a streak of advertising desert southwest temps for the middle part of the country in September. The heatwave happened but the GFS was 5-10 degrees too warm with it when it saw it in the longer ranges. Winter is much more volatile and even harder to predict from day to day, because temperatures can vary much more greatly in winter vs summer. Yeah you are right. I remember this summer is was record breaking high temps for areas like OK and surrounding regions. Then the heat wave come and left and no records or super records were broken... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah you are right. I remember this summer is was record breaking high temps for areas like OK and surrounding regions. Then the heat wave come and left and no records or super records were broken... I believe it had Memphis at 107-109 for several days on end. It verified about 6-10 degrees cooler. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 hours ago, John1122 said: The OP GFS wasn't great as it tries to dump the cold into Mexico and it struggles to move East. Other models, including the GEFS not so much and the cold progresses East just fine. I've seen some mets talking about the GFS having major long range warm bias issues with the new version. Yeah, it's absolutely fouled up. It was bad enough before but, this takes the cake, lol. Looks like it's been hijacked by the Climate agenda money milking bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Could be an interesting end to this GFS run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 It's banter, but man, I think there's some weenie rule that says a run like that has to be posted: The stuff Gulf Low dreams are made of lol. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Do not look at the GFS. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: It's banter, but man, I think there's some weenie rule that says a run like that has to be posted: The stuff Gulf Low dreams are made of lol. Maybe the GFS is offering up an apology after an absolute cluster of a week. LOL. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 It's banter, but man, I think there's some weenie rule that says a run like that has to be posted: The stuff Gulf Low dreams are made of lol. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 Just a bit of a run to run difference on the GFS. There's a 45 degree difference in our area from 18z to 00z. I don't know which, if either will be correct but right now it's just not a usable model for anything beyond 5 days. The GEFS doesn't agree with the op, at all. The Canadian is unchanged. The cold arrives and we have snow showers around the 15th/16th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 3 hours ago, John1122 said: Just a bit of a run to run difference on the GFS. There's a 45 degree difference in our area from 18z to 00z. I don't know which, if either will be correct but right now it's just not a usable model for anything beyond 5 days. The GEFS doesn't agree with the op, at all. The Canadian is unchanged. The cold arrives and we have snow showers around the 15th/16th. My exact sentiments on the gfs. The OP is extremely volatile passed day 5 from run to run... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 The 0z Euro control is insanely cold over the Plains and Front Range. That is a fantastic set-up for those who live in western areas of the forum. The EPS supports that look(core of the cold in the western Plains) w/ the furtherest extent of the cold reaching the Atlantic. Remember the strat split a while back? Yep, that is where it normally dumps cold first in NA(if it goes to NA), and right on time 2-3 weeks after the event. Would be interesting if the background driver was a combination of SSW and Pac forcing(not the good kind). Anyway, the set-up depicted is very similar to the over-running event for Memphis a few years back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 TGF Britian and France! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 I relearn this lesson every winter. Models often go haywire right before and just as cold air shows up in the medium and long range in modeling. Guessing this is a Montana special(cold) that bleeds in an ever modified form...eastward. Winter chances increase as one goes westward(from the Apps) in this set-up. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 9 hours ago, John1122 said: Just a bit of a run to run difference on the GFS. There's a 45 degree difference in our area from 18z to 00z. I don't know which, if either will be correct but right now it's just not a usable model for anything beyond 5 days. The GEFS doesn't agree with the op, at all. The Canadian is unchanged. The cold arrives and we have snow showers around the 15th/16th. We'll call it the Woke Hack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: I relearn this lesson every winter. Models often go haywire right before and just as cold air shows up in the medium and long range in modeling. Guessing this is a Montana special(cold) that bleeds in an ever modified form...eastward. Winter chances increase as one goes westward(from the Apps) in this set-up. Yeah, sure looking more and more like a Plains/ Rockies Winter. It may translate East to encompass areas similar to last Winter and year before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 If the Euro is correct, we will at minimum see a snow showery day coming soon. The 850s will be frigid and squeezing out moisture. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 Well, I see the operationals have all "found" the block now. Suppression city. Now, I think we start to see systems attack the base of the block where we are. Very good adjustments today. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2022 Author Share Posted December 8, 2022 5 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, sure looking more and more like a Plains/ Rockies Winter. It may translate East to encompass areas similar to last Winter and year before. Nina winters are huge for the northern Rockies in terms of snowfall. Water content in the snow can lack at times as it did last winter - lots of cold, fluffy snow and water content was low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 It's really a shame the anticipated blocking hasn't threw the Nina off kilter much. So far, about all it's done is help with the moisture transport into our area. It is possible had the Blocking not setup we'd be dry and warm with a huge SE Ridge dominating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 If I lived in northwest TN right now...I would be chomping at the bit. The pattern is loaded for bear from a line from Memphis to Nashville and northwest. I hope NE TN can get in on the action (not holding my breath). A classic Nina cold weather outbreak is set for the western half of the state IMHO. I am really interested to see if that line can press further SE. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: If I lived in northwest TN right now...I would be chomping at the bit. The pattern is loaded for bear from a line from Memphis to Nashville and northwest. I hope NE TN can get in on the action (not holding my breath). A classic Nina cold weather outbreak is set for the western half of the state IMHO. I am really interested to see if that line can press further SE. Yeah, hopefully the deep cold will come far enough east to get us on the cold side of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 A little confidence builder; the 1960's featured several -PDO, -PNA, -NAO combo Winter's and they weren't too shabby Snowfall wise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Nice wrap around event on the GFS that run. Inside 200 hours now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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