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December Discussion 2022


Frog Town
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While we drown our sorrows over the recent model snowfall trends, here's the NWS Great Falls AFD for posterity. At least it will be cold somewhere. :scooter:

Wednesday night through Thursday...Record breaking temperatures
are expected. Some locations will be colder than 40 below zero. It
is possible some of the coldest valleys could see air
temperatures colder than 50 or 60 below, as record surface high
pressure approaches the region. (The all time record cold for the
lower 48 states was at Roger`s Pass, with a temperature of 70
below.) Current temperatures in northern Canada are 50 to 60
below, thus these temperatures are possible. These records will
be dependent on skies becoming clear, and any cloud cover will
limit how cold it gets. Overall, current forecast lows for
Thursday morning were adjusted a bit colder than the NBM and might
need to be adjusted even colder over the next day or so should
sky cover look to become more clear. Also, a wind chill advisory
will be needed for portions of Southwest MT Thursday night into
Friday morning.

Note...be aware that some temperature sensors are only capable of
measuring temperatures to near 40 below. Thus it could actually be
colder than what is currently reported for some weather stations.
The NWS/FAA temperature sensor can report temperature values down
to 80 below.
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1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

While we drown our sorrows over the recent model snowfall trends, here's the NWS Great Falls AFD for posterity. At least it will be cold somewhere. :scooter:

Wednesday night through Thursday...Record breaking temperatures
are expected. Some locations will be colder than 40 below zero. It
is possible some of the coldest valleys could see air
temperatures colder than 50 or 60 below, as record surface high
pressure approaches the region. (The all time record cold for the
lower 48 states was at Roger`s Pass, with a temperature of 70
below.) Current temperatures in northern Canada are 50 to 60
below, thus these temperatures are possible. These records will
be dependent on skies becoming clear, and any cloud cover will
limit how cold it gets. Overall, current forecast lows for
Thursday morning were adjusted a bit colder than the NBM and might
need to be adjusted even colder over the next day or so should
sky cover look to become more clear. Also, a wind chill advisory
will be needed for portions of Southwest MT Thursday night into
Friday morning.

Note...be aware that some temperature sensors are only capable of
measuring temperatures to near 40 below. Thus it could actually be
colder than what is currently reported for some weather stations.
The NWS/FAA temperature sensor can report temperature values down
to 80 below.

and rain by sunday with temps nearing 50.  LOL

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3" of snow reported this morning, and a very cold day with single digit highs. Shipping season will be closing in a couple weeks. Here's an arrival in Duluth this morning in the sea smoke. Horn blows are the typical salute between Aerial lift bridge, and boat captains. You can see ice already forming in the harbor.

 

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With the excitement for the upcoming event abating somewhat, might be a good time to reminisce on the not-too-distant past.

The couple of wet & heavy thumps (I wonder if those might have been less than 10:1) in the early part of the month combined with a misty fog resulted in decent conditions for shooting the daylight run of the Canadian Pacific Holiday Train through southern Wisconsin on Saturday the 10th.

As thick as a soda's white fizzThe first Holiday Train in three years approaches its Wisconsin DellsstopBlasting off after doing the Dells showThe rolling light show passes through the Kilbourn West switch, re-taking the mainCP 2246, the red-nosed (well, all red) locomotive


Of course, the full effect comes after dark, and is best conveyed with video:
 

 

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NWS Duluth summary of the last storm we had here. They are calling it the "Blue" Blizzard of Dec 2022. Interesting reason for the name in the last paragraph. 

https://www.weather.gov/dlh/BlueBlizzardDec2022

A powerful, long duration winter storm brought widespread snowfall amounts of 8 to 24 inches across parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, with areas around Lake Superior receiving up to 30 inches of snow. A wintry mixture of sleet, freezing rain and snow began Tuesday (December 13th) afternoon and evening, spreading northeast overnight Tuesday night and into Wednesday (December 14th) morning. This first wave of precipitation brought a widespread 6 to 12 inches of snow.  We had a break in the snowfall during the day on Wednesday, but it started up again Wednesday night and continued into Thursday (December 15th), bringing another 8-20 inches of snow.  This second wave of precipitation was nearly all snow, enhanced by the main upper level low pressure system as it moved close to the area.  Lighter snow lingered into Friday and Saturday, December 16th and 17th.  A low pressure system developed over eastern Colorado early Tuesday, moved northeast to eastern Nebraska by Wednesday morning, then to east-central Minnesota by Thursday morning, lingering there through Friday before moving off to the northeast Friday night and Saturday. 

The storm resulted in a long period of poor road conditions, with strong winds causing blowing and drifting snow. There were also widespread power outages, with some people reporting no power for over two days!

Notable with this storm was how wet and heavy the snow was, with 3-day liquid equivalent values of 1 to 4 inches. The wet quality of this snow, unusual for winter storms in this area, heavily weighed down trees and power lines. The density of the snowpack also exacerbated the quality of snow to absorb the red end of the visible light spectrum, transmitting the blue end, which led to many folks observing a glacier blue color in holes and cracks in the snow as they cleared it. Because of this blue color, as well as the very wet quality of the snowfall, NWS Duluth has taken to referring to this snow as the Blue Blizzard of 2022.

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Some stats for Chicago

Friday will be the first time in 27 years that a high temperature does not go over 5 degrees in December. 

12/9/1995:  high 5, low -4

 

The last time that the high was 0 or below in December was 33 years ago.

12/21/1989:  high 0, low -14

 

The last time that the high was below 0 in December was 39 years ago.

12/25/1983:  high -5, low -17

 

Given the temps and strong winds on Friday, one could say that it will feel like the coldest day in December since the 1980s.

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Did some quick calculating, and Friday alone is going to knock almost 1.5 degrees off the monthly December temperature departure at ORD, which will take the month into negative territory.  Pretty impressive to see that much of a move in 1 day this late in the month.  

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