Chicago Storm Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 I think we need to define "CAD" around here - seems to be some lack of a consensus, lolit used to mean lengthy periods of cold/dry.this season it apparently means a day or two of cold with no precip.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Edit: I put this in the Medium LR thread now, but left it here too. Need a banter thread. Surprised no one posted about the 12z GFS - actual potential in not clown range. But in all seriousness, the 12z GEFS does have an intriguing look later next week, which would fit in the window Joe alluded to on the Medium LR thread. Beyond that, we'll see if things go to a favorable pattern for decent clippers/Pac hybrids. Overnight ENS pointed in that direction. Attached is the composite mean 500 mb heights for December 2010. That had a bigger system (the Metrodome roof crusher) on the 11th-12th then trended to a good clipper pattern through the holidays. It was a Niña with a high end NAO block. We'll see if we have a relatively similar progression this month. The NAO block should have staying power given the forecast magnitude, so if snow can be put down it'll likely stick around.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: it used to mean lengthy periods of cold/dry. this season it apparently means a day or two of cold with no precip. . I'm ready for hot and humid. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Edit: I put this in the Medium LR thread now, but left it here too. Need a banter thread. Surprised no one posted about the 12z GFS - actual potential in not clown range. But in all seriousness, the 12z GEFS does have an intriguing look later next week, which would fit in the window Joe alluded to on the Medium LR thread. Beyond that, we'll see if things go to a favorable pattern for decent clippers/Pac hybrids. Overnight ENS pointed in that direction. Attached is the composite mean 500 mb heights for December 2010. That had a bigger system (the Metrodome roof crusher) on the 11th-12th then trended to a good clipper pattern through the holidays. It was a Niña with a high end NAO block. We'll see if we have a relatively similar progression this month. The NAO block should have staying power given the forecast magnitude, so if snow can be put down it'll likely stick around. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk this supports my early morning thoughts that warren weenied. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Not too much longer and it'll be so busy in here everyone will forget all about the snooze fest. Edit: 18z GFS has nearly a foot in Wayne Cnty next weekend Edit-edit: If you want to see some real eye-candy, entire run thru 12/18 has 2+ feet over mby (and many areas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 3, 2022 Author Share Posted December 3, 2022 43 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Not too much longer and it'll be so busy in here everyone will forget all about the snooze fest. Edit: 18z GFS has nearly a foot in Wayne Cnty next weekend Holy crap! You weren't kidding. If I recall correctly, 2013-2014 started in a similar way. Cold was forecast then it kind of took it's time a bit, and then WHAM! November of that year had a few cold out breaks around Thanksgiving, then It was up and down with a descent snow in early December before it got epic around the holidays. We shall see.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 16 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Holy crap! You weren't kidding. If I recall correctly, 2013-2014 started in a similar way. Cold was forecast then it kind of took it's time a bit, and then WHAM! November of that year had a few cold out breaks around Thanksgiving, then It was up and down with a descent snow in early December before it got epic around the holidays. We shall see.. Good memory on that, yep. Several dustings in Nov and early Dec, but the first solid SN with freezing high temps to go with was 12/8, followed by the substantial system on the 14th. That in my mind was the start of that truly epic snow season across most of SMI. As mentioned by RC, Dec 2010 was similar with the Big Dog getting things rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 To change our December doldrums we need these convoluted patterns to break our way: QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS THURSDAY ONWARD WITH TIMING/PHASING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES BUT THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE FOR THE LOCAL AREA. CHANCE POPS FOR MANY PERIODS LIKELY WARRANTED FOR NOW BUT CHANGES, PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT TO TIMING, CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LATER FORECASTS.-LOT do it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Me waiting for more hype posts 1 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Ready 2 get warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Nothing good for most of us for at least 12 more days per GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 21 hours ago, Frog Town said: Holy crap! You weren't kidding. If I recall correctly, 2013-2014 started in a similar way. Cold was forecast then it kind of took it's time a bit, and then WHAM! November of that year had a few cold out breaks around Thanksgiving, then It was up and down with a descent snow in early December before it got epic around the holidays. We shall see.. What about 2014-2015? Mild and literally almost no measurable snowfall during December 2014. Wonder if we're here for a December 2014 redux. 1 hour ago, chuckster2012 said: Nothing good for most of us for at least 12 more days per GFS.. This month is shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 33 minutes ago, Spartman said: This month is shot. There's 28 days left in the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Spartman said: What about 2014-2015? Mild and literally almost no measurable snowfall during December 2014. Wonder if we're here for a December 2014 redux. This month is shot. Not like January's have been anything special either. One ('19) good since 2014's historic, all others avg to below. Now it all rides on Feb when sun angle and push of spring down south means "game over" for most on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 So much zzzzzz… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: Not like January's have been anything special either. One ('19) good since 2014's historic, all others avg to below. Now it all rides on Feb when sun angle and push of spring down south means "game over" for most on here. Woah slow down there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Looking good. When a dude that just posts random maps incessantly gets an audience karma will step in, always. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 18 minutes ago, Baum said: Looking good. When a dude that just posts random maps incessantly gets an audience karma will step in, always. There is an interesting setup for some snow Friday actually, models been hinting at it a bit with a low that goes south of both of us. Not every model is showing it but it is something to watch potentially during the week. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Another week of above normal temperatures and no snow. Each week of this is one week closer to spring. I knew the cold progged for December would never materialize. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Another week of above normal temperatures and no snow. Each week of this is one week closer to spring. I knew the cold progged for December would never materialize.looks like shorts weather.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 34 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: looks like shorts weather. . Hardly anything below freezing -- even at night -- for at least next 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Hardly anything below freezing -- even at night -- for at least next 7 days.keep moving the goal posts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 12z GFS is just gross. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Enough to help go for the top 10 worst Decembers. We'll be pushing for the longest overcast stretch of the season that starts soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 New low. Posting digitally generated forecasts on here from an app and acting like it matters. Someone help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 Extended at least delivers actual rain so that's nice, maybe some threats as we near xmas break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 10 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Extended at least delivers actual rain so that's nice, maybe some threats as we near xmas break the step down with regular precip chances setting the stage for a Big Dog around mid month that will pull in the real cold. Expecting a Cold and White holiday season this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Baum said: the step down with regular precip chances setting the stage for a Big Dog around mid month that will pull in the real cold. Expecting a Cold and White holiday season this year. not happening. i just applied my lawn dye to green up my dormant grass for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 3 hours ago, hardypalmguy said: not happening. i just applied my lawn dye to green up my dormant grass for the winter. keep it in stock. You'll need it until May. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 All I want is a white Christmas, I'm okay with it if our historic big dawg waits until the new year. Start small. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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