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December Discussion 2022


Frog Town
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So is the upcoming torch the elephant in the room that no one's going to talk about?

I can see some concerns for flooding assuming streams/reservoirs/ponds etc got hard frozen over the last few days; then snow melt (in those areas that actually have a substantial amount on the ground) combined with rain upcoming.

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

My December snow total is up to 7.4" and my season total is 10.1".  Both are close to average.

15.4" on the month and 20.2" on the season.  The increase in snow totals just by gaining the degree and a half of latitude between us is always impressive

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Looks like ORD will technically secure a colder than average December as I don't think there is enough time for the warmup to wipe out the negative anomalies.  Unfortunately it will also be a month with less snow than average.  The last colder than average December at ORD (2017) also had snowfall that was below average.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like ORD will technically secure a colder than average December as I don't think there is enough time for the warmup to wipe out the negative anomalies.  Unfortunately it will also be a month with less snow than average.  The last colder than average December at ORD (2017) also had snowfall that was below average.

Season to date snowfall imby 8.0" (Nov 2.9, Dec 5.1) and DTW 7.5" (Nov 2.5, Dec 5.0).  I'm thinking they finish right around to very slightly warmer than average for Dec.  No surprise, it's been an extremely overcast December. Through the 25th average sky cover is 9.2 out of 10.

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13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Season to date snowfall imby 8.0" (Nov 2.9, Dec 5.1) and DTW 7.5" (Nov 2.5, Dec 5.0).  I'm thinking they finish right around to very slightly warmer than average for Dec.  No surprise, it's been an extremely overcast December. Through the 25th average sky cover is 9.2 out of 10.

Actually have a 3 degree difference in anomalies between ORD and DTW right now (-2.9 to +0.2).  ORD has put up multiple days between 20-30+ degrees colder than average during the recent cold snap, while it has been more muted at DTW probably due to lake influence.  I'd agree that DTW will finish December warmer than average.

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11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Actually have a 3 degree difference in anomalies between ORD and DTW right now (-2.9 to +0.2).  ORD has put up multiple days between 20-30+ degrees colder than average during the recent cold snap, while it has been more muted at DTW probably due to lake influence.  I'd agree that DTW will finish December warmer than average.

Definitely muted due to a number of reasons. Mainly lake influence and a constant low overcast/snow, but also timing of the front.  The high end December 23rd was 34 at midnight. Temperatures hovered between 0 and 1゚ for most of the day into the overnight of the 24th.

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5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Season to date snowfall imby 8.0" (Nov 2.9, Dec 5.1) and DTW 7.5" (Nov 2.5, Dec 5.0).  I'm thinking they finish right around to very slightly warmer than average for Dec.  No surprise, it's been an extremely overcast December. Through the 25th average sky cover is 9.2 out of 10.

The constant cloud cover much of this month pretty much killed this December. Shades of December '14.

This will be one of those weeks we'll be lucky to have one day of sun (besides Christmas), particularly Wednesday. Suicide weather expected tomorrow. We are to get a long crappy New Year's weekend afterwards.

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On 12/25/2022 at 7:44 AM, IWXwx said:

I just noticed that FWA has a 7" deficit in precip for the year. That Friday/Saturday system is going to need to dump a lot of rain to cut into that by year's end.

I just saw on a TV weather graphic that Indianapolis was over 9 inches in the red for the year. Do not knoww the validity of that though.

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4 hours ago, Spartman said:

The constant cloud cover much of this month pretty much killed this December. Shades of December '14.

This will be one of those weeks we'll be lucky to have one day of sun (besides Christmas), particularly Wednesday. Suicide weather expected tomorrow. We are to get a long crappy New Year's weekend afterwards.

There's been no sun here in a while. Christmas was overcast with snow falling most of the day. I don't mind the overcast 

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20 hours ago, madwx said:

15.4" on the month and 20.2" on the season.  The increase in snow totals just by gaining the degree and a half of latitude between us is always impressive

Disparity even greater between RFD at 5.6" for the season

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I haven’t been paying real close attention but it seems to me that it wasn’t too long ago that Friday was looking like a decent rain but that seems to have turned into a stronger northern stream system instead with just a dry front. Just like every snowstorm. 
 

 Some sort of southern stream system tries to come this way over the weekend with rain but I’m sure that will trend SE and weaker too. 

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2 hours ago, roardog said:

I haven’t been paying real close attention but it seems to me that it wasn’t too long ago that Friday was looking like a decent rain but that seems to have turned into a stronger northern stream system instead with just a dry front. Just like every snowstorm. 
 

 Some sort of southern stream system tries to come this way over the weekend with rain but I’m sure that will trend SE and weaker too. 

You would think that the drought has a good chance of getting wiped out in this Nina winter, but if it's still there come spring, then could become a problem.  Still have D2 in parts of MI.

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17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You would think that the drought has a good chance of getting wiped out in this Nina winter, but if it's still there come spring, then could become a problem.  Still have D2 in parts of MI.

It’ll be interesting if there’s still drought around next spring. If we do get a developing Nino next year then I’d assume that favors a wetter and cooler summer in the Midwest but who knows? Even if a Nino is developing by then, there could be a Nina hangover from 3 years of Nina though too. Obviously all speculation at this point.

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30 minutes ago, roardog said:

It’ll be interesting if there’s still drought around next spring. If we do get a developing Nino next year then I’d assume that favors a wetter and cooler summer in the Midwest but who knows? Even if a Nino is developing by then, there could be a Nina hangover from 3 years of Nina though too. Obviously all speculation at this point.

Yeah, I'm not real sure on a Nino happening until later in 2023.  I don't see it getting going in time to have an impact on summer.

Btw, via ONI method, the current Nina is peaking on the border of weak-moderate. 

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1 hour ago, sielicki said:

Between the miss of this last storm and the warming trend that is casting serious doubts on the rest of the season, it’s been a demoralizing past 10 days.

 The 1st week of January is going to be a torch there is no doubt about it. But that has absolutely nothing to do with the rest of the season

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