Frog Town Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Starting my first topic so maybe beginners luck will help us all out.... Seems like a lot of things(MJO, EPO, NAO, AO, etc.) are lining up for a cold and potentially snowy month. Let's see what happens! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 It definitely looks cold, snowy will still depend on the storm track. We don't need the NAO falling over a cliff, otherwise we will be in trouble and it could end up being cold and dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Anything to break up the last 10-12 years of monotonous Decembers we have endured. I would most definitely welcome a front loaded winter, not one that lingers well into April, as has been another common theme. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 11 hours ago, Chambana said: Anything to break up the last 10-12 years of monotonous Decembers we have endured. I would most definitely welcome a front loaded winter, not one that lingers well into April, as has been another common theme. December 2017 was anything but lame in my opinion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 3 hours ago, nwohweather said: December 2017 was anything but lame in my opinion IF you were in the right place. Also, there have been others in the last 12 years: 2010, 2013, 2016 at the least. Still, majority have been crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: IF you were in the right place. Also, there have been others in the last 12 years: 2010, 2013, 2016 at the least. Still, majority have been crap. Didn't Marshall get hit by the Christmas eve snowstorm in 2017, then the LES squalls on Christmas day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Powerball said: Didn't Marshall get hit by the Christmas eve snowstorm in 2017, then the LES squalls on Christmas day? I did fine, yes. I was actually one of those in the right place but I think many on here were too far away from the Detroit magnet that month. I think more shared in Dec of 2016 as relates to good snows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 5 hours ago, RogueWaves said: IF you were in the right place. Also, there have been others in the last 12 years: 2010, 2013, 2016 at the least. Still, majority have been crap. Agree. 2010, 2013, 2016, 2017 were good Decembers. 2012 & 2020 were ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted November 27, 2022 Author Share Posted November 27, 2022 I always thought it was cool how Grand Rapids does an extended prelude! Actually starting to get a bit excited, considering my state of mind at this time last year, staring down the barrel of december torch. "Change to colder follow next big storm This is where it gets interesting. Due to the MJO going into Phase 8, which is cold for a large part of the central and northern CONUS we are likely to get back into the deep freeze after the 6th of December. This is well supported by the ensembles of both the GFS and ECWMF. In fact the latest model runs show part of the northern Midwest into Montana with a 5 day departure from normal over 20 degrees below normal! We will need to watch this closely, this could have significant impacts on our area." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Stuck in the brief warming, dry fropa, cad cycle of doom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 21 hours ago, Frog Town said: I always thought it was cool how Grand Rapids does an extended prelude! Actually starting to get a bit excited, considering my state of mind at this time last year, staring down the barrel of december torch. "Change to colder follow next big storm This is where it gets interesting. Due to the MJO going into Phase 8, which is cold for a large part of the central and northern CONUS we are likely to get back into the deep freeze after the 6th of December. This is well supported by the ensembles of both the GFS and ECWMF. In fact the latest model runs show part of the northern Midwest into Montana with a 5 day departure from normal over 20 degrees below normal! We will need to watch this closely, this could have significant impacts on our area." Dear God it's 72° at my house right now, my body may shut down As I mentioned before I wouldn't be shocked to see something to 2017 where it was a clipper train for the 1st half of the month and had a few snowstorms on the back half. Heck on the 28th we got down to -8° at Toledo Express 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 5 hours ago, nwohweather said: As I mentioned before I wouldn't be shocked to see something to 2017 where it was a clipper train for the 1st half of the month Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 5:24 PM, michsnowfreak said: Agree. 2010, 2013, 2016, 2017 were good Decembers. 2012 & 2020 were ok. 2020 I only had 3.6" in Marshall, about 33% of normal. Wasn't keeping daily data back in Dec of '12 but iirc it was a similar deal with the two bliz storms leaving mby fringed to the left and fringed to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Good luck with that. The Clippers or the late month storms part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: The Clippers or the late month storms part? The clipper part. There's definitely no support or shot at a clipper train for the whole first half of the month. Wouldn't rule it out for a time as we approach and get into mid-month, but that's pending PV lobe evolution. Late month is too far off to even mention at this point, given how volatile the pattern continues to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 Yikes....palm tree weather continues. Wake me up when winter is over because apparently we aren't getting it....zzzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: Yikes....palm tree weather continues. Wake me up when winter is over because apparently we aren't getting it....zzzzz On 11/23/2022 at 2:10 PM, Chicago Storm said: i wouldn't be wasting time with OP runs in this pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 December looking like another bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 29 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: December looking like another bust I didn't say it,he said it: "TRENDED THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH CHANCE POPS REASONABLE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH TYPE. A BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL AIR MASS SHOULD ARRIVE ON TUESDAY, WITH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY FAVORED TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL. SIGNS AGAIN LEANING AWAY FROM ANY BIG PRECIP PRODUCERS,"- Castro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 What is the world is the GFS doing with the low pressure in the midwest around the 12th? That is an odd looking evolution that I would bet doesn't occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 hours ago, WestMichigan said: What is the world is the GFS doing with the low pressure in the midwest around the 12th? That is an odd looking evolution that I would bet doesn't occur. you're thinking something the GFS shows 12 days out doesn't occur? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 A few things are becoming clear for December. Not going to be persistently mild, which is already a change from the last several Decembers. Snow chances are more nebulous, at least through the next 7-10 days. It's clear that the models are struggling with the very progressive and northern stream dominant pattern we're in now. I actually think the retrograding NAO block has some potential to help in that regard. There's some chance for corridors of light-moderate accums in portions of the sub next week but don't expect the models to handle them with solid lead time. Last night's EPS was a step back in the right direction in the day 10-15. Following a brief pseudo +PNA Rockies ridge which may still offer some Pac clipper hybrid type threats, the block connects with the EPO domain block and a signal for lower heights (-PNA) on the west coast toward the end of the run, with neutral heights elsewhere. So basically the connected blocks would allow for a more zonal pattern and not one crushed by the northern stream, plus having sufficiently cold air available due to -EPO/-NAO. Not going to say I'm confident yet in decent event(s) materializing toward and beyond December 10th, but could do worse than the look of the 00z EPS last night. It's a misnomer to think that a big -NAO has to be bad out here. It helped deliver late Jan-Feb 2021. February-March 2013 was another solid stretch of winter weather with a prolonged -NAO. December 2010 was a solid winter month for many with a huge -NAO (Jan was drier and favored EC then the -EPO and -PNA delivered you know what in early Feb 2011. 2009-10 was a very good winter in a moderate El Niño no less with a historically strong NAO block. There's obviously counter examples that mostly benefitted the east coast, such as March 2018, though that did have the late March event for parts of IA and IL. The thing most of us, especially with westward extent, don't want is a big +PNA, which with a -EPO and -NAO would be CAD hell. If you like snow, it not being mild is part of the equation, so we should have that for a good chunk of the month, which we haven't had since 2016 and 2017. Could many of us get skunked? Sure. If I were to bet I'd probably go around normal for ORD (7.7"), which a. shouldn't be that high a bar to clear and b. ORD hasn't had AN December snow since December 2016 and before that previous AN snowfall Decembers were 2013 and 2010. Yikes. 5 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 minute ago, chuckster2012 said: The Ohio Valley's looking good if this can be believed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Cad ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Equal chances that NOAA outlook is good through 12/10 and is wrong thereafter. Steady build to cold and than the snow chances begin to increase thereafter. A real December is in the offing... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Baum said: Equal chances that NOAA outlook is good through 12/10 and is wrong thereafter. Steady build to cold and than the snow chances begin to increase thereafter. A real December is in the offing... After the past few years, it's hard for me to share that positivity. However, forgetting meteorology and just playing the odds, we're overdue, changing climo be damned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Cad ftl New climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Cad ftlwould be the first CAD on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 I think we need to define "CAD" around here - seems to be some lack of a consensus, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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