December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’d think a more consolidated piece of energy would dig deeper and produce a storm more likely to gain latitude. Without something to block it it might end up cutting but I’d rather see that than a low that just slides off the coast.

Yes but upon further inspection the trend toward a more northern stream dominant system continued. That’s a big problem for us. We know how a northern stream dominant miller b ends for us. 24 hours ago the trend was towards more of a hybrid. If this ends up northern stream dominant history suggests we end up on the losing side.  More than any other feature the trend I want to see if back towards less northern stream dominant and more STJ interaction. It’s been going the wrong way recent runs. Still plenty of time for more changes. 

[jayyy]

We have people in two camps.  Ones that just want any snow from 2" to a lot and those that only look for the biggest storms to get ONLY the most snow.  
I'm in the first camp and too bad more aren't cause it isn't always about the perfect track or deepest low.  

They’re living in the wrong area if they only want big snowstorms.


.

[aldie 22]

7 minutes ago, H2O said:

We have people in two camps.  Ones that just want any snow from 2" to a lot and those that only look for the biggest storms to get ONLY the most snow.  

I'm in the first camp and too bad more aren't cause it isn't always about the perfect track or deepest low.  

What's funny is that we rarely get either yet here we are every year wishing and hoping for something we don't get while not enjoying what we do get. What a goofy group we are

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

They’re living in the wrong area if they only want big snowstorms.


.

yesterday at 6z GFS had nothing so at least we still have something.  I see what psu was saying in the previous post.  6z GFS today looked more like clipper than previous 3 runs. 

[Buddy1987]

14 minutes ago, H2O said:

We have people in two camps.  Ones that just want any snow from 2" to a lot and those that only look for the biggest storms to get ONLY the most snow.  

I'm in the first camp and too bad more aren't cause it isn't always about the perfect track or deepest low.  

I stand by my amped solution. Would much rather take the risk although I’m closer to the apps than some here toward the coast, however I agree with you where right now beggars can’t be choosers in our setups last couple years, so if it’s 2” then it’s better than partly sunny and bitterly cold. 
 

I also was spoiled as sh*t growing up in Northwest Connecticut, about an hour from the Mass border, so there’s that too lol. 

[North Balti Zen]

18 minutes ago, jayyy said:

They’re living in the wrong area if they only want big snowstorms.


.

Counterpoint - for those not in the highlands like you and those out west most of us need modeled big storms just to eek out a few inches…

[Ralph Wiggum]

I still stand by the Dec 22-27 producing at least 1 widespread wintry event for our respective regions. I see zero reason to deviate from this. If we fail, we move on....heads down and mentally exhausted from tracking. But I don't think that happens based off of ens modeling.

[mattie g]

21 minutes ago, jayyy said:

They’re living in the wrong area if they only want big snowstorms.


.

We get more big snowstorms than most areas of the country, but that doesn't mean people should expect them.

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I like this times 10,000.. I’d rather roll the dice here and be looking down the barrel of an amped system than have some weak pos sheared out mess because the phase was never even close. Beggers can’t be choosers BUT it’s early and I’m willing to push the chips all in. 

Having a TPV under the block does more than just compress the flow. It spins off spokes of energy that can phase with and sharpen the primary wave in time for a coastal to get going south of our latitude. It actually encourages the wave to amplify/dig more, and take on a negative tilt.

 

[MDScienceTeacher]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but upon further inspection the trend toward a more northern stream dominant system continued. That’s a big problem for us. We know how a northern stream dominant miller b ends for us. 24 hours ago the trend was towards more of a hybrid. If this ends up northern stream dominant history suggests we end up on the losing side.  More than any other feature the trend I want to see if back towards less northern stream dominant and more STJ interaction. It’s been going the wrong way recent runs. Still plenty of time for more changes. 

To me it looks like a timing issue with the initial wave getting way too far out in front of the northern stream low diving out of Canada.   Now those pieces don't go boom until Christmas when everything as already progressed past us.  

The good news is that the pattern says blocking.  And I am pretty sure that blocking means that progression will get slowed and the energy will get pushed further south as the models come into focus.  Fingers crosses LOL

[IronTy]

06Z gives us like a foot and a half of snow by new years, what's not to like?   Well at least for the more southern members.  I'm gonna keep remembering that lifeboat meme @H2O posted though.   

[frd]

5 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

To me it looks like a timing issue with the initial wave getting way too far out in front of the northern stream low diving out of Canada.   Now those pieces don't go boom until Christmas when everything as already progressed past us.  

The good news is that the pattern says blocking.  And I am pretty sure that blocking means that progression will get slowed and the energy will get pushed further south as the models come into focus.  Fingers crosses LOL

Model scoring and verification has decreased since early December.  So uncertainty in this pattern is higher than normal.  

[nj2va]

Yellow'd

[Terpeast]

For those of us hoping for a KU (I'll admit, I'm one of them), we have to remember that there have been only two Decembers in the last 50 years that had double digit monthly snowfall amounts at DCA. At IAD, there has only been 5 double digit Decembers.

Keep expectations accordingly. 

(advice goes for me, too)

[Paleocene]

Me waiting for the 12z GFS, refreshing pivotal and and TT free sites to try to beat the people who pay for subscriptions in posting blue pastings:

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

Me waiting for the 12z GFS, refreshing pivotal and and TT free sites to try to beat the people who pay for subscriptions in posting blue pastings:

How many cores you running on your rig?  Gigabit fiber DL speed? 

[olafminesaw]

The WPC leans more towards the GFS, FWIW

[aldie 22]

I will say this, if we get what would be about 9 consecutive days of model runs showing snow over the area that would be one of the most impressive runs of success i can ever recall. My guess is that we see more than a few runs that are total whiffs or rainers or no storm at all between now and then. I suspect today's 12z runs will be the beginning of the roller coaster. But what do i know i predicted 70 degrees this week

[Paleocene]

9 minutes ago, IronTy said:

How many cores you running on your rig?  Gigabit fiber DL speed? 

 ok sorry for banter, I'll be quiet now.

[Buddy1987]

Ready for my 12Z fine wine and dine experience, with the GFS as the main entree. Serve the dig!

[MDScienceTeacher]

14 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

camp 3:  no snow until after Christmas.

Meaning you don't want snow til after Christmas or "It just doesn't snow before Christmas around here"?

[stormtracker]

Ok. Back on US soil. Haven’t seen anything but I’m pretty sure two things are facts:

Something has changed, as forecasts beyond 7 days do

There are the usual suspects who are concerned and nitpicking every small detail. 
 

amirite?

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Ok. Back on US soil. Haven’t seen anything but I’m pretty sure two things are facts:

Something has changed, as forecasts beyond 7 days do

There are the usual suspects who are concerned and nitpicking every small detail. 
 

amirite?

Indeed--welcome back! Also...HAPPY BEETHOVEN DAY to all who observe 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Ok. Back on US soil. Haven’t seen anything but I’m pretty sure two things are facts:

Something has changed, as forecasts beyond 7 days do

There are the usual suspects who are concerned and nitpicking every small detail. 
 

amirite?

The blinds have been opening and closing with lightning speed 

[BristowWx]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Ok. Back on US soil. Haven’t seen anything but I’m pretty sure two things are facts:

Something has changed, as forecasts beyond 7 days do

There are the usual suspects who are concerned and nitpicking every small detail. 
 

amirite?

yes..yes you are.  we have no functioning gauges but the radio works..clear as a bell

[Weather Will]

Just now, BristowWx said:

yes..yes you are.  we have no functioning gauges but the radio works..clear as a bell

May wish you had stayed in Bali…

[Ralph Wiggum]

22 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

The WPC leans more towards the GFS, FWIW

Feb 83 vibes with the dual low structure

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Indeed--welcome back! Also...HAPPY BEETHOVEN DAY to all who observe 

[Eskimo Joe]

Mid Altantic snow lovers right now

[Prismshine Productions]

Just want to point this out:

The 6z ENS suits (GEFS and EPS both) had the ridge taller and the energy digging further west. The 12z run from yesterday is still very much on the table, because we all know that models have a tendency to overcorrect (which is what I suspected happened from 18z last night through 6z GFS OP this morning. Got a hunch we see the ridge trend back more amped with taller heights like ALL of us need until we find the median for the Short range wheelhouse.

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