December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[mattie g]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

24 hours ago folks were thrilled a cutter option was waning. So, now we want the cutter idea back? I thought S and E was where we wanted it at this range? 

Luvr is all about ensuring that there's precip around. Likes the idea of thump and dryslot and all that. It helps that he's much farther west and can withstand that kind of track better than most.

[mattie g]

6 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EPS

I'm not upset with either the mean or the cluster of Lows right here.

[jayyy]

I'll take small storms but when you've been in the snow wilderness for six years and you have a ripe pattern and signs of potential big storm and then it looks like it might not happen, I'm not going to be thrilled.

It doesn’t look like it might not happen though? It is WAY premature to be saying that man. The 6z gfs showed upwards of a foot of snow over the course of a few days in your area close to I-95…. in the third week of December. The GEFS, which tends to be a bit too progressive, shows a low off the coast with lots of cold air to work with. Not exactly a terrible outcome. Living and dying with the exact surface details of each run a week plus out is a fools errand.

Besides the Jan 2016 blizzard, which was impressively sniffed out by models over a week out and wavered very little in the week leading up the storm, how many significant snowstorms can you remember over the past 10-20 years where models showed a big snowstorm 8 days out and they remained that way the entire way leading up to the event? That rarely ever happens.

Nothings changed since the model runs that showed 12” two days ago. We have a potentially good to great 500mb setup and plenty of cold air to work with, and every single model is signaling a storm in the 23rd-25th timeframe. That’s all that matters right now. We’ll iron out the details later.


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[WinterWxLuvr]

11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

24 hours ago folks were thrilled a cutter option was waning. So, now we want the cutter idea back? I thought S and E was where we wanted it at this range? 

Where we want it is irrelevant. I guess partly cloudy is a better option than plain rain, but until I see a system throwing snow to Altoona, I won’t be investing time into this. I really don’t care if Delaware gets snow or not. Just like those folks don’t care about my yard. Just the way it is.

[H2O]

We have people in two camps.  Ones that just want any snow from 2" to a lot and those that only look for the biggest storms to get ONLY the most snow.  

I'm in the first camp and too bad more aren't cause it isn't always about the perfect track or deepest low.  

[osfan24]

Just now, jayyy said:

It doesn’t look like it might not happen though? It is WAY premature to be saying that man. The 6z gfs showed upwards of a foot of snow over the course of a few days in your area close to I-95…. in the third week of December. The GEFS, which tends to be a bit too progressive, shows a low off the coast with lots of cold air to work with. Not exactly a terrible outcome. Living and dying with the exact surface details of each run a week plus out is a fools errand.

Besides the Jan 2016 blizzard, which was impressively sniffed out by models over a week out and wavered very little in the week leading up the storm, how many significant snowstorms can you remember over the past 10-20 years where models showed a big snowstorm 8 days out and they remained that way the entire way leading up to the event? That rarely ever happens.

Nothings changed since the model runs that showed 12” two days ago. We have a potentially good to great 500mb setup and plenty of cold air to work with, and every single model is signaling a storm in the 23rd-25th timeframe. That’s all that matters right now. We’ll iron out the details later.


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Maybe I used the wrong choice of words. My main point more than anything was that you can always tell whether the overnight runs were really good or not based on how many additional pages of the thread there are when you wake up.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, H2O said:

We have people in two camps.  Ones that just want any snow from 2" to a lot and those that only look for the biggest storms to get ONLY the most snow.  

I'm in the first camp and too bad more aren't cause it isn't always about the perfect track or deepest low.  

I’m in that camp as well. I personally think that really big storms, while fun to watch, are a pain to deal with afterwards.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’d think a more consolidated piece of energy would dig deeper and produce a storm more likely to gain latitude. Without something to block it it might end up cutting but I’d rather see that than a low that just slides off the coast.

Yes but upon further inspection the trend toward a more northern stream dominant system continued. That’s a big problem for us. We know how a northern stream dominant miller b ends for us. 24 hours ago the trend was towards more of a hybrid. If this ends up northern stream dominant history suggests we end up on the losing side.  More than any other feature the trend I want to see if back towards less northern stream dominant and more STJ interaction. It’s been going the wrong way recent runs. Still plenty of time for more changes. 

[jayyy]

We have people in two camps.  Ones that just want any snow from 2" to a lot and those that only look for the biggest storms to get ONLY the most snow.  
I'm in the first camp and too bad more aren't cause it isn't always about the perfect track or deepest low.  

They’re living in the wrong area if they only want big snowstorms.


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[aldie 22]

7 minutes ago, H2O said:

We have people in two camps.  Ones that just want any snow from 2" to a lot and those that only look for the biggest storms to get ONLY the most snow.  

I'm in the first camp and too bad more aren't cause it isn't always about the perfect track or deepest low.  

What's funny is that we rarely get either yet here we are every year wishing and hoping for something we don't get while not enjoying what we do get. What a goofy group we are

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

They’re living in the wrong area if they only want big snowstorms.


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yesterday at 6z GFS had nothing so at least we still have something.  I see what psu was saying in the previous post.  6z GFS today looked more like clipper than previous 3 runs. 

[Buddy1987]

14 minutes ago, H2O said:

We have people in two camps.  Ones that just want any snow from 2" to a lot and those that only look for the biggest storms to get ONLY the most snow.  

I'm in the first camp and too bad more aren't cause it isn't always about the perfect track or deepest low.  

I stand by my amped solution. Would much rather take the risk although I’m closer to the apps than some here toward the coast, however I agree with you where right now beggars can’t be choosers in our setups last couple years, so if it’s 2” then it’s better than partly sunny and bitterly cold. 
 

I also was spoiled as sh*t growing up in Northwest Connecticut, about an hour from the Mass border, so there’s that too lol. 

[North Balti Zen]

18 minutes ago, jayyy said:

They’re living in the wrong area if they only want big snowstorms.


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Counterpoint - for those not in the highlands like you and those out west most of us need modeled big storms just to eek out a few inches…

[Ralph Wiggum]

I still stand by the Dec 22-27 producing at least 1 widespread wintry event for our respective regions. I see zero reason to deviate from this. If we fail, we move on....heads down and mentally exhausted from tracking. But I don't think that happens based off of ens modeling.

[mattie g]

21 minutes ago, jayyy said:

They’re living in the wrong area if they only want big snowstorms.


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We get more big snowstorms than most areas of the country, but that doesn't mean people should expect them.

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I like this times 10,000.. I’d rather roll the dice here and be looking down the barrel of an amped system than have some weak pos sheared out mess because the phase was never even close. Beggers can’t be choosers BUT it’s early and I’m willing to push the chips all in. 

Having a TPV under the block does more than just compress the flow. It spins off spokes of energy that can phase with and sharpen the primary wave in time for a coastal to get going south of our latitude. It actually encourages the wave to amplify/dig more, and take on a negative tilt.

 

[MDScienceTeacher]

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but upon further inspection the trend toward a more northern stream dominant system continued. That’s a big problem for us. We know how a northern stream dominant miller b ends for us. 24 hours ago the trend was towards more of a hybrid. If this ends up northern stream dominant history suggests we end up on the losing side.  More than any other feature the trend I want to see if back towards less northern stream dominant and more STJ interaction. It’s been going the wrong way recent runs. Still plenty of time for more changes. 

To me it looks like a timing issue with the initial wave getting way too far out in front of the northern stream low diving out of Canada.   Now those pieces don't go boom until Christmas when everything as already progressed past us.  

The good news is that the pattern says blocking.  And I am pretty sure that blocking means that progression will get slowed and the energy will get pushed further south as the models come into focus.  Fingers crosses LOL

[IronTy]

06Z gives us like a foot and a half of snow by new years, what's not to like?   Well at least for the more southern members.  I'm gonna keep remembering that lifeboat meme @H2O posted though.   

[frd]

5 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

To me it looks like a timing issue with the initial wave getting way too far out in front of the northern stream low diving out of Canada.   Now those pieces don't go boom until Christmas when everything as already progressed past us.  

The good news is that the pattern says blocking.  And I am pretty sure that blocking means that progression will get slowed and the energy will get pushed further south as the models come into focus.  Fingers crosses LOL

Model scoring and verification has decreased since early December.  So uncertainty in this pattern is higher than normal.  

[nj2va]

Yellow'd

[Terpeast]

For those of us hoping for a KU (I'll admit, I'm one of them), we have to remember that there have been only two Decembers in the last 50 years that had double digit monthly snowfall amounts at DCA. At IAD, there has only been 5 double digit Decembers.

Keep expectations accordingly. 

(advice goes for me, too)

[Paleocene]

Me waiting for the 12z GFS, refreshing pivotal and and TT free sites to try to beat the people who pay for subscriptions in posting blue pastings:

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

Me waiting for the 12z GFS, refreshing pivotal and and TT free sites to try to beat the people who pay for subscriptions in posting blue pastings:

How many cores you running on your rig?  Gigabit fiber DL speed? 

[olafminesaw]

The WPC leans more towards the GFS, FWIW

[aldie 22]

I will say this, if we get what would be about 9 consecutive days of model runs showing snow over the area that would be one of the most impressive runs of success i can ever recall. My guess is that we see more than a few runs that are total whiffs or rainers or no storm at all between now and then. I suspect today's 12z runs will be the beginning of the roller coaster. But what do i know i predicted 70 degrees this week

[Paleocene]

9 minutes ago, IronTy said:

How many cores you running on your rig?  Gigabit fiber DL speed? 

 ok sorry for banter, I'll be quiet now.

[Buddy1987]

Ready for my 12Z fine wine and dine experience, with the GFS as the main entree. Serve the dig!

[MDScienceTeacher]

14 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

camp 3:  no snow until after Christmas.

Meaning you don't want snow til after Christmas or "It just doesn't snow before Christmas around here"?

[stormtracker]

Ok. Back on US soil. Haven’t seen anything but I’m pretty sure two things are facts:

Something has changed, as forecasts beyond 7 days do

There are the usual suspects who are concerned and nitpicking every small detail. 
 

amirite?

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Ok. Back on US soil. Haven’t seen anything but I’m pretty sure two things are facts:

Something has changed, as forecasts beyond 7 days do

There are the usual suspects who are concerned and nitpicking every small detail. 
 

amirite?

Indeed--welcome back! Also...HAPPY BEETHOVEN DAY to all who observe