December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Doesn't look good

50/50 lifts out too quickly and the vort doesn't dig

At 144 isnt it in the process of digging? or not as the case may be?  in other words how do we know what the next panels would show?  h5 compared to 0z?  Thanks in advance

[Eskimo Joe]

06z EPS doesn't go out beyond 144 hours so let's not jump off a cliff. 

[osfan24]

16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

He's a big game hunter. Even then, it's not good enough.

I'll take small storms but when you've been in the snow wilderness for six years and you have a ripe pattern and signs of potential big storm and then it looks like it might not happen, I'm not going to be thrilled.

[Chris78]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

06z EPS doesn't go out beyond 144 hours so let's not jump off a cliff. 

How does it compare to the 00z at 150?

[Terpeast]

I don’t have access to the latest eps, but I’d compare the h5 to gefs at 144

[aldie 22]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Doesn't look good

50/50 lifts out too quickly and the vort doesn't dig

How's the weather in Brooklyn these days?

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I don’t have access to the latest eps, but I’d compare the h5 to gefs at 144

to this weenie eye it looks more like 0z GFS at 150 than 6z GFS at 144.  might not be all the dig we want but the trough looks further west like 0z.  6z GFS was further east.  I could be way off of course

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EPS compared to 0Z

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS compared to 0Z

Thanks for Posting.

Looks like the SW dropping out of Canada is in a better position/tilt compared to 00z.

[BristowWx]

I would argue...probably not effectively...6z looks a bit sharper and more neutrally tilted than 0z...maybe?

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS compared to 0Z

Minor differences for that range but it’s more amplified and digging slightly further SW at 144 v 0z.  I’d take it as a slight improvement. 

[CAPE]

I think this is probably the best panel to see the differences. Continues the trend of ejecting less lead energy eastward underneath the NAO ridge.

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I think this is probably the best panel to see the differences. Continues the trend of ejecting of less lead energy eastward underneath the NAO ridge.

And that's a good thing right?

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I think this is probably the best panel to see the differences. Continues the trend of ejecting of less lead energy eastward underneath the NAO ridge.

Noob question….don’t we want some to eject under the block to reinforce the 50/50?  

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

And that's a good thing right?

 

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Noob question….don’t we want some to eject under the block to reinforce the 50/50?  

Yeah. We want some lead energy that suppresses the flow over the eastern conus. That helps our shortwave dig farther southwest. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Noob question….don’t we want some to eject under the block to reinforce the 50/50?  

The runs with the better outcomes have lower heights there yes. 

[CAPE]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

 

Yeah. We want some lead energy that suppresses the flow over the eastern conus. That helps our shortwave dig farther southwest. 

Look at the 6z GFS run. I made a post on it earlier.

[Ralph Wiggum]

50 minutes ago, frd said:

Do you feel the GFS suppresses coastal low pressure incorrectly as a bias? 

Earlier in the month it had this storm further out in the Atlantic only to correct West.  

Also I read that the warm pool in the NW Atlantic may be playing a role by enticing the block to connect to this area by the way of a ridge and hence cause the coastal to be more of a inland runner or coastal hugger.   

This warm pool has been a persistent feature and was even focused on during the summer as part of a study on marine heat waves where certain ocean SST anomalies are significantly above normal.  

So we have anomalous - AO but also anomalously warm sea surface temps in the NW Atlantic. I imagine possibly competing forces for our area.  

Maybe this feature becomes less of a concern next month.  

 

We played this game with a persistent WAR a few years back. Don't need a repeat of that season, please.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I’d think a more consolidated piece of energy would dig deeper and produce a storm more likely to gain latitude. Without something to block it it might end up cutting but I’d rather see that than a low that just slides off the coast.

[Buddy1987]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’d think a more consolidated piece of energy would dig deeper and produce a storm more likely to gain latitude. Without something to block it it might end up cutting but I’d rather see that than a low that just slides off the coast.

I like this times 10,000.. I’d rather roll the dice here and be looking down the barrel of an amped system than have some weak pos sheared out mess because the phase was never even close. Beggers can’t be choosers BUT it’s early and I’m willing to push the chips all in. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I think this is probably the best panel to see the differences. Continues the trend of ejecting less lead energy eastward underneath the NAO ridge.

Are we going back to tracking avocados?

[CAPE]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Are we going back to tracking avocados?

The Euro was doing this a few days ago then trended away from it, but yeah I don't think we want the shortwave to be an entire TPV lobe lol.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’d think a more consolidated piece of energy would dig deeper and produce a storm more likely to gain latitude. Without something to block it it might end up cutting but I’d rather see that than a low that just slides off the coast.

24 hours ago folks were thrilled a cutter option was waning. So, now we want the cutter idea back? I thought S and E was where we wanted it at this range? 

[mattie g]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

24 hours ago folks were thrilled a cutter option was waning. So, now we want the cutter idea back? I thought S and E was where we wanted it at this range? 

Luvr is all about ensuring that there's precip around. Likes the idea of thump and dryslot and all that. It helps that he's much farther west and can withstand that kind of track better than most.

[mattie g]

6 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EPS

I'm not upset with either the mean or the cluster of Lows right here.

[jayyy]

I'll take small storms but when you've been in the snow wilderness for six years and you have a ripe pattern and signs of potential big storm and then it looks like it might not happen, I'm not going to be thrilled.

It doesn’t look like it might not happen though? It is WAY premature to be saying that man. The 6z gfs showed upwards of a foot of snow over the course of a few days in your area close to I-95…. in the third week of December. The GEFS, which tends to be a bit too progressive, shows a low off the coast with lots of cold air to work with. Not exactly a terrible outcome. Living and dying with the exact surface details of each run a week plus out is a fools errand.

Besides the Jan 2016 blizzard, which was impressively sniffed out by models over a week out and wavered very little in the week leading up the storm, how many significant snowstorms can you remember over the past 10-20 years where models showed a big snowstorm 8 days out and they remained that way the entire way leading up to the event? That rarely ever happens.

Nothings changed since the model runs that showed 12” two days ago. We have a potentially good to great 500mb setup and plenty of cold air to work with, and every single model is signaling a storm in the 23rd-25th timeframe. That’s all that matters right now. We’ll iron out the details later.


.

[WinterWxLuvr]

11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

24 hours ago folks were thrilled a cutter option was waning. So, now we want the cutter idea back? I thought S and E was where we wanted it at this range? 

Where we want it is irrelevant. I guess partly cloudy is a better option than plain rain, but until I see a system throwing snow to Altoona, I won’t be investing time into this. I really don’t care if Delaware gets snow or not. Just like those folks don’t care about my yard. Just the way it is.

[H2O]

We have people in two camps.  Ones that just want any snow from 2" to a lot and those that only look for the biggest storms to get ONLY the most snow.  

I'm in the first camp and too bad more aren't cause it isn't always about the perfect track or deepest low.  

[osfan24]

Just now, jayyy said:

It doesn’t look like it might not happen though? It is WAY premature to be saying that man. The 6z gfs showed upwards of a foot of snow over the course of a few days in your area close to I-95…. in the third week of December. The GEFS, which tends to be a bit too progressive, shows a low off the coast with lots of cold air to work with. Not exactly a terrible outcome. Living and dying with the exact surface details of each run a week plus out is a fools errand.

Besides the Jan 2016 blizzard, which was impressively sniffed out by models over a week out and wavered very little in the week leading up the storm, how many significant snowstorms can you remember over the past 10-20 years where models showed a big snowstorm 8 days out and they remained that way the entire way leading up to the event? That rarely ever happens.

Nothings changed since the model runs that showed 12” two days ago. We have a potentially good to great 500mb setup and plenty of cold air to work with, and every single model is signaling a storm in the 23rd-25th timeframe. That’s all that matters right now. We’ll iron out the details later.


.

Maybe I used the wrong choice of words. My main point more than anything was that you can always tell whether the overnight runs were really good or not based on how many additional pages of the thread there are when you wake up.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, H2O said:

We have people in two camps.  Ones that just want any snow from 2" to a lot and those that only look for the biggest storms to get ONLY the most snow.  

I'm in the first camp and too bad more aren't cause it isn't always about the perfect track or deepest low.  

I’m in that camp as well. I personally think that really big storms, while fun to watch, are a pain to deal with afterwards.