Heisy Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Main issue right now is the lead TPV wave that sets up or confluence. Last couple cycles other data not pushing it into classic 50/50 region. The farther SE this energy pushes the colder and snowier the models will be. Check out differences between 6z GFS - 00z EURO - 00z CMC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6z GFS does things with the initial vortex- more symmetrical and turns it under the block instead of it sliding out towards 50-50. A piece of energy rotating down phases with the main shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 hours ago, Sandstorm94 said: Based on the trends today, dead on the money Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk I don't disagree actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Per GFS…Looks like the wave catches up too late. Start cranking just off shore. Eastern Va gets a good thumping. Still a week out, things can change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Verbatim it's a big hit along I-95 and east. NW burbs would see several inches. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Pretty epic run. A weak wave with some light snow on Xmas day, and it has the storm on the 27th. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Total (kuchera) thru the 28th. Clown map but the 2nd storm on the 27th looked to be an extended training plume of moisture flowing in from the SW. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 WB 6Z GEFS 7am Fri. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 A bit of an increased indication of low pressure to the NW on the 6z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Verbatim it's a big hit along I-95 and east. NW burbs would see several inches.Different outcome, but still a solid hit as you said. Doubt many of us would be upset if this played out verbatim with another shot at snow 3-4 days afterward - particularly along the I95 corridor. A foot of snow Christmas week with a very cold airmass in place for BWI. That’d be a huge win in my view.Nonetheless, some will still be like “damn, the phase was too late so we didn’t see a 1-2 footer”. If you’re living with a ‘KU or bust’ mantra living in the mid Atlantic in the year 2022, you’re literally begging for disappointment. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: A bit of an increased indication of low pressure to the NW on the 6z GEFS. Kinda like the Euro, the euro isn’t really a full blown cutter but just a broad area of low pressure with a secondary max of low pressure to our NW. Euro is not far off from a snowstorm for us still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Total (kuchera) thru the 28th. Clown map but the 2nd storm on the 27th looked to be an extended training plume of moisture flowing in from the SW.A combined 1-2 feet of snow from Maryland into Virginia from two storms while NYC sees 2-3”. What could go wrong . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, jayyy said: Different outcome, but still a solid hit as you said. Doubt many of us would be upset if this played out verbatim with another shot at snow 3-4 days afterward - particularly along the I95 corridor. A foot of snow Christmas week with a very cold airmass in place for BWI. That’d be a huge win in my view. Nonetheless, some will still be like “damn, the phase was too late so we didn’t see a 1-2 footer”. If you’re living with a ‘KU or bust’ mantra living in the mid Atlantic in the year 2022, you’re literally begging for disappointment. . At this juncture the depiction on the means is reasonably close to what we want, but plenty of details that will determine the ultimate outcome remain unresolved. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 People expecting every run to not have variation are in for a long week. Gonna be some changes for something 7 days away. And a reminder for those freaking out over the euro It showed San Diego in a deep freeze just a couple days ago. How’s that working out? 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 We have our best chance at a white Christmas since 09…now that’s fun 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We have our best chance at a white Christmas since 09…now that’s fun Honestly I’d be happy with 2-4” and an arctic blast, for Christmas… meanwhile waiting on the 27th storm to arrive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: Honestly I’d be happy with 2-4” and an arctic blast, for Christmas… meanwhile waiting on the 27th storm to arrive. 1-2 feet would be disruptive. oh hell I would love it but also love 3 inches. also I noticed just looking at the snowfall maps it is possible the entire state of VA would have a white Christmas if things work out. That has to be quite rare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 It’s over … Guys, I’m kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 28 minutes ago, H2O said: People expecting every run to not have variation are in for a long week. Gonna be some changes for something 7 days away. And a reminder for those freaking out over the euro It showed San Diego in a deep freeze just a couple days ago. How’s that working out? 7 days out, a lot will change. Just happy to be in the game. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 It would be nice to get a big early season hit because I’ve noticed the forum is a lot less volatile and reactionary in seasons where the snow fix has already been satiated somewhat. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I prefer this forum when some are in “jump off the cliff mode” lol 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Good stuff! Least we got a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It would be nice to get a big early season hit because I’ve noticed the forum is a lot less volition and reactionary in seasons where the snow fix has already been satiated somewhat. I don’t know, once you get a taste of the good stuff…just makes you want more….plus there is JI, who always wants more better. I think he was complaining 2nd half of Feb 2010…meanwhile I was hiring folks to shovel off my flat roof from 3ft of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I figured overnight runs were not great when I saw how few additional posts there were. Good thing we still have a week to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I figured overnight runs were not great when I saw how few additional posts there were. Good thing we still have all winter to go! FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: FYP Well sure, but you realllly don't want to waste great patterns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: A bit of an increased indication of low pressure to the NW on the 6z GEFS. Do you feel the GFS suppresses coastal low pressure incorrectly as a bias? Earlier in the month it had this storm further out in the Atlantic only to correct West. Also I read that the warm pool in the NW Atlantic may be playing a role by enticing the block to connect to this area by the way of a ridge and hence cause the coastal to be more of a inland runner or coastal hugger. This warm pool has been a persistent feature and was even focused on during the summer as part of a study on marine heat waves where certain ocean SST anomalies are significantly above normal. So we have anomalous - AO but also anomalously warm sea surface temps in the NW Atlantic. I imagine possibly competing forces for our area. Maybe this feature becomes less of a concern next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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