December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

Was he the guy from Carbondale?

Anyway, we have a chance to go above climo for December and right around Christmas, sounds pretty awesome to me.

Somewhere up that way. Near Allentown iirc.

[clskinsfan]

25 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Once some get a sniff of the good stuff

Man. I just had a serious flashback to the 80's from this. 

[StantonParkHoya]

13 minutes ago, THEREALTOR1 said:

12/18/2009...can't remember which model showed it first but that's the last time I remember seeing something like this...

You do know we got several feet of snow from one storm in 2016

Still seems like people don’t talk about that storm enough.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

You do know we got several feet of snow from one storm in 2016

40 inches here. But who's counting? In all seriousness. Having both major globals with pretty similar setups is probably a decent sign someone is going to get smacked. Might not be all of us. Always depends on track. Off the coast is good for coastal plain dwellers. On the coast and I am dancing. But I think it is pretty likely there is going to be a big storm somewhere on the east coast at this point. 

[Solution Man]

28 minutes ago, THEREALTOR1 said:

12/18/2009...can't remember which model showed it first but that's the last time I remember seeing something like this...

The Nam sniffed out the 2009 storm first

[THEREALTOR1]

19 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

You do know we got several feet of snow from one storm in 2016

Still seems like people don’t talk about that storm enough.

Lol forgot about that one...  January 4th, 5th, .... can't remember exactly that one....good call tho

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

@psuhoffmanif trends continue can we get a live stream at some point for one of the model runs? 

If we can get it inside 5 days sure. But we’re way too far out at this point. I wouldn’t mind doing just a general pattern overview chat at some point either though.  I’ll be honest though I don’t have as much time as I used too.   So if I’m ever unable to host and anyone else wants to take over I’m great with that. But I’ll try to fit them in when warranted. 

[Steve25]

17 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

You do know we got several feet of snow from one storm in 2016

Still seems like people don’t talk about that storm enough.

That month of January 2016 was also the last time we went substantially into double digit snowfall for the month total at BWI. The only other month since then that reached double digits was last January when we nickled and dimed our way to about 14 inches for the month. 

I'm trying to think of what was our best single storm/event snow total has been since that January of 2016. Maybe like 4 to 5 inches a couple times? The itch is real for a big one. 

 

 

[Paleocene]

27 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

You do know we got several feet of snow from one storm in 2016

Still seems like people don’t talk about that storm enough.

That storm is still my benchmark for "large snowfall inside beltway" - I moved here right before commutaggedon in 2011. Was in south central PA for ultrawinter of 09-10. 

The 2016 storm was great while it was happening, very ominous leadup, quickly accumulating snow, cold when it was falling, power outages, actual heavy plowing of local streets. But the next couple days were very drippy and above freezing, which took away from the experience just a little bit. Overall, 10/10, would want that to happen again. It was also fantastic to track because models were dead locked on 120+ hours out.

[Weather Will]

Years with Highest daily snowfall recorded at Washington DC in December.  Source: Current Results

15.0December 19, 2009

6.1December 05, 2002

0.4December 23, 1998

3.0December 27, 1990

3.6December 08, 1989

6.6December 12, 1982

6.0December 16, 1973

4.9December 31, 1970

4.3December 25, 1969

5.6December 23, 1963

5.4December 25, 1962

11.1December 04, 1957

3.4December 14, 1951

 

 

 

[Snowchaser]

[WxWatcher007]

2016 was one of just ten category four KU storms. A true all timer where the long lead lock in by guidance was almost as extraordinary as the event itself. 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Steve25]

34 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

That storm is still my benchmark for "large snowfall inside beltway" - I moved here right before commutaggedon in 2011. Was in south central PA for ultrawinter of 09-10. 

The 2016 storm was great while it was happening, very ominous leadup, quickly accumulating snow, cold when it was falling, power outages, actual heavy plowing of local streets. But the next couple days were very drippy and above freezing, which took away from the experience just a little bit. Overall, 10/10, would want that to happen again. It was also fantastic to track because models were dead locked on 120+ hours out.

It's absolutely true about the days following big storms and how they can either accentuate or blur the memories a bit. There's something truly special about big snows being followed by bitter cold for at least a few days. 

[Maestrobjwa]

42 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Years with Highest daily snowfall recorded at Washington DC in December.  Source: Current Results

15.0December 19, 2009

6.1December 05, 2002

0.4December 23, 1998

3.0December 27, 1990

3.6December 08, 1989

6.6December 12, 1982

6.0December 16, 1973

4.9December 31, 1970

4.3December 25, 1969

5.6December 23, 1963

5.4December 25, 1962

11.1December 04, 1957

3.4December 14, 1951

 

 

 

Man you're messin' with mild OCD with the no spacing between the inches and the month listed, lol

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z NBM

[clskinsfan]

35 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

That storm is still my benchmark for "large snowfall inside beltway" - I moved here right before commutaggedon in 2011. Was in south central PA for ultrawinter of 09-10. 

The 2016 storm was great while it was happening, very ominous leadup, quickly accumulating snow, cold when it was falling, power outages, actual heavy plowing of local streets. But the next couple days were very drippy and above freezing, which took away from the experience just a little bit. Overall, 10/10, would want that to happen again. It was also fantastic to track because models were dead locked on 120+ hours out.

I always debate whether 2016 or 1996 were the best storm of my lifetime. 2016 was just unrelenting solid snow for 2 plus days. And is the highest single storm total of my life. I never thought I would live to see 40 plus inches in a single storm here. But 1996 was an absolute whiteout blizzard.  Honorable mention to 2003 (PD2). Which is an underrated storm because the temps were marginal. 

[clskinsfan]

41 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

2016 was one of just ten category four KU storms. A true all timer where the long lead lock in by guidance was almost as extraordinary as the event itself. 

 

Thing is. If you lived where you do now you would have reaped yourself in 2016.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z NBM

Had to look it up. NBM is basically a blend of a bunch of models? How has it been performing?

[TSSN+]

GFS is rollin. Ride or die time. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Had to look it up. NBM is basically a blend of a bunch of models? How has it been performing?

It's showing a lot of promise. I'm in a few NWS partners work groups and I like it.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

GFS is rollin. Ride or die time. 

It ain't REALLY ride or die 7-8 days out...only in the weenie subconscious, lol

[Weather Will]

For what it is worth 0Z ICON is nothing more than a frontal passage.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

For what it is worth 0Z ICON is nothing more than a frontal passage.

Not even worth mentioning--that cutter is so far north it's like it's totally ignoring the block, lol

[cbmclean]

Just now, Weather Will said:

For what it is worth 0Z ICON is nothing more than a frontal passage.

I've never trusted the Germans since they bombed Pearl Harbor.

[clskinsfan]

Snowshoe and the rest of the ski resorts loving the GFS through 66. They are going to get hit hard the next few days. 

[Ji]

Not even worth mentioning--that cutter is so far north it's like it's totally ignoring the block, lol

Icon has no western ridge

[Solution Man]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It ain't REALLY ride or die 7-8 days out...only in the weenie subconscious, lol

Refer to Weenie handbook page 69, chapter 17  sub para 3, updated last week

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It ain't REALLY ride or die 7-8 days out...only in the weenie subconscious, lol

It’s ride or die time every run from here on in. lol 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Had to look it up. NBM is basically a blend of a bunch of models? How has it been performing?

It outperforms any one model at shorter ranges. I have no idea what or how it calculates at that range. An average of wildly divergent solutions isn’t that useful.