WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 One thing to watch with todays runs: the storm around the 7th that was looking like it would usher in the pattern seems to be breaking up into different shortwaves vs phasing into a strong cutter. What we’d like is for the northern stream to drag in the cold air and then let something scoot along to our south. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: One thing to watch with todays runs: the storm around the 7th that was looking like it would usher in the pattern seems to be breaking up into different shortwaves vs phasing into a strong cutter. What we’d like is for the northern stream to drag in the cold air and then let something scoot along to our south. Follow up wave hope there! As long as the cold still gets here. It was looking different on the models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: One thing to watch with todays runs: the storm around the 7th that was looking like it would usher in the pattern seems to be breaking up into different shortwaves vs phasing into a strong cutter. What we’d like is for the northern stream to drag in the cold air and then let something scoot along to our south. A couple more shifts like the one on the 12z gfs and December 7th would surprise. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: A couple more shifts like the one on the 12z gfs and December 7th would surprise. 12z GGEM making me look like a GD genius lol 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 12z GGEM making me look like a GD genius lol Did you pay them off because that does look very close to what you said could happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z GGEM making me look like a GD genius lol I was about to post the same thing. Did you get a sneak peak of that this morning? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Calling for a KU 15+ days out to be the first... good ole Twitter. 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 13 minutes ago, Ian said: Calling for a KU 15+ days out to be the first... good ole Twitter. Unless I see a blue checkmark I'm not buying it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 the GEFS generating weather porn at h5 starting next week...and the 2m temps are a continuous river of chilled vodka from NW Canada 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 I’m flying out on the 12th for a work trip and returning on the 15th. It’ll certainly snow here that week. I’ll be that guy too - first ever work trip is on the 8th/9th, so sorta rooting against our first window here. Good thing it’s always the storm-after-the-storm that pulls through. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I’ll be that guy too - first ever work trip is on the 8th/9th, so sorta rooting against our first window here. Good thing it’s always the storm-after-the-storm that pulls through. Heading to Vegas on the 12th to see family. Missed Dec.2009 storm for same reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Sounds like we need to add a "who is going to be out of town" index to our model forecasts. The greater the number the higher the chance of a storm. I'm out Dec 15-20 as well. Maybe there'll be a blizzard and the airports will shut down so I'll have an excuse to stay home. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Sounds like winter arrives soon...literally and figuratively. I have a mish mosh of mostly potential/unconfirmed plans through January. Once I book a trip I'm expecting a tropical storm to begin showing up in the GOM with a 1050 high over Lake Ontario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 Digital blue on all 3 major globals today. Finally starting to get in range where threats and storm windows are appearing and things seem to be roughly in the pattern that’s been well covered already. One thing to keep in mind that’s not just weenie hopium: when you have extreme blocking, we can and often will get southward/colder adjustments in the medium range rather than the more typical northward/warm adjustment. Buckle up, we could be busy. 18 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Buckle up, we could be busy. Considering I don't remember a snowy December I would be fine with being a bit busy weather wise this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Considering I don't remember a snowy December I would be fine with being a bit busy weather wise this month. We’ve had a long run of pretty crappy decembers. 2013 was the last one with solid snowfall I think. 2017 was ok and 2020 had a nice event, but been a pretty dry stretch since 2013. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 15 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Considering I don't remember a snowy December I would be fine with being a bit busy weather wise this month. I remember when Dec 5th snow used to be like clockwork 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, yoda said: I remember when Dec 5th snow used to be like clockwork Showing our age…I too remember 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 I am hoping that the EPS is as awesome for us since NYC and SNE are calling it weenie run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, yoda said: I am hoping that the EPS is as awesome for us since NYC and SNE are calling it weenie run 11 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, yoda said: I am hoping that the EPS is as awesome for us since NYC and SNE are calling it weenie run https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=epsens&p=500h_anom-mean&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 That's a lot of blue over us with a western ridge too and of course the crazy -NAO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 4 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 GEFS been more bouncy after D10, but EPS rock solid with the double-bunner look for many days now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Modern Nina Dec with above avg snow in DC. 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 27 minutes ago, Ian said: Modern Nina Dec with above avg snow in DC. did musk kick you off twitter lol? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS been more bouncy after D10, but EPS rock solid with the double-bunner look for many days now. Double-bunner? So we get not one Christmas cinnamon bun but two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Double-bunner? So we get not one Christmas cinnamon bun but two? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Outside of a correctional institution this should be a good thing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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