December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I have a terrible meteo memory but is this type of evolution similar to a storm we had in '15?  I recall a distinct lull between the coastal and ULL.  Great storm but disjointed iirc.

Feb 14 2014

[Jersey Andrew]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Feb 14 2014

Does the progged storm for late next week resemble any other storm or similar pattern?

[poolz1]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Feb 14 2014

Yes! '14.  I remember being on the outside looking in with the majority of the ULL pass.  Still put down around a foot imby but I think places east had close to 2'.

Would you consider the GFS/Euro to be a similar evolution to the feb 14 storm?

[HighStakes]

Thank you to all those who tell us to keep expectations in check and don't get our hopes too high for a  storm that is 168 HOURS AWAY!!! I definitely needed to be brought back to reality. 

 

 

[Amped]

There are a substantial amount of cutters on both the GEFS and EPS.  Relax I'm just the messenger.

 

[MDScienceTeacher]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Around this time tomorrow we get into the 7 day window for this one. 

How far ahead did the models sniff out this major dakotas blizzard and a mostly rain event here today?

TT only goes back 7 days.. but it nailed it in the 7 day window:

[George BM]

47 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Kinda amazing to see the CPC put out a map like this.

 

 

[TSG]

11 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

TT only goes back 7 days.. but it nailed it in the 7 day window:

Not quite. It had the idea on that run but the next day (dec 9th) we got like 3 runs in a row showing snow/frozen for central VA and north, followed by 2 or 3 showing suppression with us maybe getting some flurries.

It didn't "lock in" on the correct solution until 12z on the 10th. So about 4-5 days.

[AtlanticWx]

This threat looks exciting for our area tbh. The spread on the ensembles is good at this range, we don't exactly want to be in the bullseye.

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Does the progged storm for late next week resemble any other storm or similar pattern?

Details like the double barrel thing are useless at this range. From a pattern sense, west NAO block, 50/50, western ridge, TPV under the block that rotates a lobe and dives down to our SW, yea this setup resembles lots of our big snowstorms. But also a lot of close misses.  It’s similar to December 2009. But it’s also similar to December 2010!  I posted the h5 of 6 storms once and 3 were HECS and 3 were total busts and you couldn’t tell the difference.  The pattern is great. We need luck with the details now. 

[mdhokie]

On 12/7/2022 at 8:02 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

This would be an epic call from the 12/7 GFS 366HR. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

This would be an epic call from the 12/7 GFS 366HR. 

That is one iteration among many other disparate runs in that timeframe.

[IronTy]

Wow that 18Z was drool.  Hell, even WeatherBug is showing the snow on the ten day forecast.   That's a lock.   

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Me personally i'm waiting for perfection

I’m concerned that temps are in the 20s instead of low teens. We need more leeway. 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I’m concerned that temps are in the 20s instead of low teens. We need more leeway. 

Need you for PBP, keep up the libations because you are going in the game Sunday

[SnowenOutThere]

26 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

This threat looks exciting for our area tbh. The spread on the ensembles is good at this range, we don't exactly want to be in the bullseye.

There is no reason to not want to be in the bullseyes besides superstition, we don’t want a spread of the ensembles that shows cutters 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I’m concerned that temps are in the 20s instead of low teens. We need more leeway. 

Saturated soil going eat the snow. Ground must be a frozen brick. Need advertised Barney cold or I'll worry even more until the advertised snow doesn't come.

[IronTy]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Saturated soil going eat the snow. Ground must be a frozen brick. Need advertised Barney cold or I'll worry even more until the advertised snow doesn't come.

That and sun angle will be rising by that time so any marginal temps won't be enough to overcome it.  

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

That and sun angle will be rising by that time so any marginal temps won't be enough to overcome it.  

The dumb angle is always a problem. 

[Weather Will]

WB latest extended GEFS 7 day period centered around Christmas.  Pretty amazing and rare if this indeed verifies.

[NorthArlington101]

47 minutes ago, George BM said:

 

Not only that...

 

[Jersey Andrew]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Details like the double barrel thing are useless at this range. From a pattern sense, west NAO block, 50/50, western ridge, TPV under the block that rotates a lobe and dives down to our SW, yea this setup resembles lots of our big snowstorms. But also a lot of close misses.  It’s similar to December 2009. But it’s also similar to December 2010!  I posted the h5 of 6 storms once and 3 were HECS and 3 were total busts and you couldn’t tell the difference.  The pattern is great. We need luck with the details now. 

I did not want to mention that storm from 12 years ago by name. Actually was living in northern New Jersey at the time where we cashed in. Back in NOVA now.

[GATECH]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The dumb angle is always a problem. 

And rates, if you don’t have 5”/hr rates it will never accumulate on the roads!  

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

The low position shifted closer to the coast this GEFS run.  Not sure why the snow mean did not go up.. maybe that is why they are called clown maps…

GEFS is straight up weenie material. 

[AtlanticWx]

20 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

There is no reason to not want to be in the bullseyes besides superstition, we don’t want a spread of the ensembles that shows cutters 

At this range, a spread of ensembles that show cutters is fine. The changes that will determine what happens with our storm probably can't be resolved that well this far out (eg +PNA and the extent of it)

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said:

At this range, a spread of ensembles that show cutters is fine. The changes that will determine what happens with our storm probably can't be resolved that well this far out (eg +PNA and the extent of it)

I understand that spread is to be expected but it would probably be for the best if the ensembles would begin to phase out the cutters

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

GEFS is straight up weenie material. 

Pants tent?  It’s gon snow 

[clskinsfan]

24 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

There is no reason to not want to be in the bullseyes besides superstition, we don’t want a spread of the ensembles that shows cutters 

I will take my chances with something trying to cut into that block. I mean you simply cannot ask for a better setup for us to get plastered than this. It is pretty much text book perfection. 

 

[AtlanticWx]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I understand that spread is to be expected but it would probably be for the best if the ensembles would begin to phase out the cutters

We're 7 days out, they'll have time to phase out the cutters and tbh ensembles have been flip flopping on support for a cutter - can't really ride or die w/ one run.

[osfan24]

Bernie Rayno seems convinced it's going negatively tilted far sooner and cutting.