WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Something I noticed. Trying to figure out why our shortwave for the 22-23rd is digging so much more in the last 24hrs worth of runs. I think it’s this lead shortwave that moves through the Lakes around D4-5. It sort of merges with and pulls a piece of the 50-50 low west. This provides a lot more suppression of our shortwave and forces it well south. Compare yesterday and todays 18z GFS runs. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 One thing is becoming more clear, and this is just my observation. While we may not be trending HECS or otherwise we ARE starting to see almost every possibility giving us accumulating snows in one form or another late next week. Even with the sw racing out ahead, the phase mistimed, a flatter PNA, etc...we are quickly closing in on a system that it snows with almost regardless of precise timing. One of those situations possibly where it just finds a way to snow. LFG! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 The Euro has upper level support for it's initial coastal low. The 18z GFS does not. It forms just cause of an arctic high hitting the gulf stream and in an area of rising heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Looks like the second storm on Boxing Day vanished this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Not sure if it will come together, but if we didn’t have a digital HECS 48hrs before this panel, I’d be stoked. This is a canonical look. #CAPEStorm2022 Hell of a look for a follow up HECS (Feb 2010) LOL.. just need a few adjustments to get the shortwave as advertised more neutral and we got something. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, osfan24 said: Looks like the second storm on Boxing Day vanished this run. Kicker shortwave appears out of nowhere and shoved it east. Still a pretty gorgeous H5 look as I posted above. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We’re basically at D7 for the storm being on our door step. Long way to go but I like where we sit for now. I’d like to see us in a similar position (with wiggle room to maintain a nice event) around 0z Sunday. Everyone should also remember that even an area wide 3-6” type event would be HIGH TIER for mid-Atlantic La Niña December’s. Exactly! If we can get a blustery 3-6" powder and some truly cold air that goes through Christmas weekend, that's a HUGE win in my book. Like I said earlier, everyone was all ga-ga (understandably) over the GFS showing an Arctic front blasting through with a brief period of decent snow the other day. Point being that (most!) everyone would have been all for that even with just a couple inches of snow. Now some other things are coming into perhaps better focus with the evolution here, in a good way for us. Let's hope that continues. I'd really only be disappointed if we get almost nothing and then a blast of dry cold. But we don't have to get a HECS either (I'd take it, to be sure!). 21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: straight up triple phaser. beautiful evolution aloft it's becoming clear that there's a lot of ways to score with this potential system... that's how you know the pattern is good Right...and very good point. We've seen different solutions from the GFS and Euro today, though overall the same general setup. And all of those outcomes drop some decent snow here while it's more than plenty cold. Can't complain at that. Having some good leeway is a huge plus, let's hope that's real in the end. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 WB 18Z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS Thats like 1/4 northeast of the USA under some form of wintry precip. Talk about an expansive precip shield and thats with the mean ens lp leaning well off the coast. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 All the maps aside, 18z GEFS is very similar to 12z for next week in every way. On to the next one.. eta- by 'next one' I mean next model cycle lol. Both runs are good. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Thats like 1/4 northeast of the USA under some form of wintry precip. Talk about an expansive precip shield and thats with the mean ens lp leaning well off the coast. We take. Well for what it's worth looking closely, there's a hint of a trough extending northwest through the Lakes area. Probably the effect of various other solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Kinda amazing to see the CPC put out a map like this. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, Terpeast said: Kinda amazing to see the CPC put out a map like this. San Diego went from 10 degrees to 95. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Kinda amazing to see the CPC put out a map like this. 8-14 is a beaut as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: All the maps aside, 18z GEFS is very similar to 12z for next week in every way. On to the next one.. Uh oh…fish storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Cold…damn cold up to NYE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Uh oh…fish storm?? Lot of misses on the WB 18Z GEFS members mixed in with the heavy hitters. Keep hopes in check for a few more days…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 59 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Snow into the cities by 0z next Thursday. Looks a bit euro like. But think this will end satisfactorily for most. It does look VERY euro like but a little less strung out and more dominant with the “second secondary” so a little better result. The double barrel structure still limits a top end outcome a bit but no one (except one persons) would complain. I still kinda doubt it ends up that way. Maybe. It could. But I’ve seen this look a lot at range and 90% of the time it ends up a more consolidated system when we’re talking about this kind of upper level feature involved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Uh oh…fish storm?? Yeah, I was surprised no one was alarmed by the GEFS. But maybe it's cause it's still many days away? Definitely too east for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 @dtk or anyone else…did they ever update the gefs to be run off the new operational or is it still the old gefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Ya’ll are missing my sarcasm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: @dtk or anyone else…did they ever update the gefs to be run off the new operational or is it still the old gefs? I feel like that’s still not happened… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Lot of misses on the WB 18Z GEFS members mixed in with the heavy hitters. Keep hopes in check for a few more days…. Man…that’s either a royal flush or pair of deuces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Ya’ll are missing my sarcasm Yeah was just about to post that. There are a lot of cutters. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, Amped said: Yeah was just about to post that. There are a lot of cutters. Best if we close the blinds until we get a PNA ridge that’s not so far east and also not so far west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Uh oh…fish storm?? Mmmmm, sushi!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: Best if we close the blinds until we get a PNA ridge that’s not so far east and also not so far west. Me personally i'm waiting for perfection 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: All the maps aside, 18z GEFS is very similar to 12z for next week in every way. On to the next one.. I finally looked at it. Actually farther west than 12z. This next week is going to be nuts in here White Christmas fever going to make crazy weenies 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ya’ll are missing my sarcasm I almost said something then figured Naw let ‘em squirm a little. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I feel like that’s still not happened… Worth noting that. That’s all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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