December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[SnowenOutThere]

A solid foot plus event the for whole forum and its all snow for most (all?) of us with temps in the 20s and low 30s. 

[Terpeast]

Around this time tomorrow we get into the 7 day window for this one. 

How far ahead did the models sniff out this major dakotas blizzard and a mostly rain event here today?

[frd]

Hour 189   WOW 

 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Around this time tomorrow we get into the 7 day window for this one. 

How far ahead did the models sniff out this major dakotas blizzard and a mostly rain event here today?

Solid week? We got teased a couple times that it would get forced to our south, but think that was all like D9? I’d have to go back in the thread to be sure.

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

A solid foot plus event the for whole forum and its all snow for most (all?) of us with temps in the 20s and low 30s. 

Fringed! Didn't love the way that evolved, but it'll change in six hours. Just glad it's still showing the significant storm idea.

[Weather Will]

18Z GFS for late next week.

[CAPE]

Disjointed with a later phase but good outcome esp for places inland. Sort of evolves more like the Euro but comes together quicker, so better at our latitude.

[Terpeast]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Solid week? We got teased a couple times that it would get forced to our south, but think that was all like D9? I’d have to go back in the thread to be sure.

Ok if models still show tomorrow what they’re showing today, then I think we are in game time. 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, CAPE said:

Disjointed with a later phase but good outcome esp for places inland. Sort of evolves more like the Euro but comes together quicker, so better at out latitude.

We have sooooo much more leeway and margin for error if we get the shortwave to get south of our latitude. Increases the floor AND the ceiling.

[CAPE]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Ok if models still show tomorrow what they’re showing today, then I think we are in game time. 

We in the game now man. But sort of like the Seahawks are in the game.. they really need to win tonight.

[frd]

 I like 

 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Ok if models still show tomorrow what they’re showing today, then I think we are in game time. 

We’re basically at D7 for the storm being on our door step. Long way to go but I like where we sit for now. I’d like to see us in a similar position (with wiggle room to maintain a nice event) around 0z Sunday. 
 

Everyone should also remember that even an area wide 3-6” type event would be HIGH TIER for mid-Atlantic La Niña December’s.

[brooklynwx99]

straight up triple phaser. beautiful evolution aloft

it's becoming clear that there's a lot of ways to score with this potential system... that's how you know the pattern is good

[Amped]

I have no good analogs. 

February 1972 and January 1935 look the closest

[Ji]

Around this time tomorrow we get into the 7 day window for this one. 
How far ahead did the models sniff out this major dakotas blizzard and a mostly rain event here today?

We need to get to the 132 hour window unscathed

[Weather Will]

In the wake of the storm, 50 mph gusts and near 0 windchills.

[deer]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Jackpot over my house. Very believeable

[CAPE]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

We’re basically at D7 for the storm being on our door step. Long way to go but I like where we sit for now. I’d like to see us in a similar position (with wiggle room to maintain a nice event) around 0z Sunday. 
 

Everyone should also remember that even an area wide 3-6” type event would be HIGH TIER for mid-Atlantic La Niña December’s.

That's sort of where the constant analysis and especially the damn snow maps (with the runs that have weenie outcomes) can skew expectations. This is a sick ass good pattern and it will be more mature by next week. That said, a solid warning criteria event is much more realistic in December than a KU.

[GATECH]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

In the wake of the storm, 50 mph gusts and near 0 windchills.

That’s amazing, usually it’s drip drip drip after big ones…

[frd]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

In the wake of the storm, 50 mph gusts and near 0 windchills.

 

Drifting snow with arctic cold AFTER the storm would bring back memories of old time winters.  

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Looks good to me, you have two costals increasing the snow time too! 

Feb 83 redux

[Jersey Andrew]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

I have no good analogs. 

February 1972 and January 1935 look the closest

I was just wondering about that. 

 

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

12 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Around this time tomorrow we get into the 7 day window for this one. 
How far ahead did the models sniff out this major dakotas blizzard and a mostly rain event here today?

We need to get to the 132 hour 

 

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Feb 83 redux

Bring on the gravity waves and thundersnow!

[WxUSAF]

Not sure if it will come together, but if we didn’t have a digital HECS 48hrs before this panel, I’d be stoked. This is a canonical look. #CAPEStorm2022

 

 

[WxUSAF]

Something I noticed. Trying to figure out why our shortwave for the 22-23rd is digging so much more in the last 24hrs worth of runs. I think it’s this lead shortwave that moves through the Lakes around D4-5. It sort of merges with and pulls a piece of the 50-50 low west. This provides a lot more suppression of our shortwave and forces it well south. Compare yesterday and todays 18z GFS runs. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

One thing is becoming more clear, and this is just my observation. While we may not be trending HECS or otherwise we ARE starting to see almost every possibility giving us accumulating snows in one form or another late next week. Even with the sw racing out ahead, the phase mistimed, a flatter PNA, etc...we are quickly closing in on a system that it snows with almost regardless of precise timing. One of those situations possibly where it just finds a way to snow. LFG!

[Amped]

The Euro has upper level support for it's initial coastal low.   The 18z GFS does not.   It forms just cause of an arctic high hitting the gulf stream and in an area of rising heights.  

 

 

[osfan24]

Looks like the second storm on Boxing Day vanished this run.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Not sure if it will come together, but if we didn’t have a digital HECS 48hrs before this panel, I’d be stoked. This is a canonical look. #CAPEStorm2022

 

 

Hell of a look for a follow up HECS (Feb 2010) LOL.. just need a few adjustments to get the shortwave as advertised more neutral and we got something.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, osfan24 said:

Looks like the second storm on Boxing Day vanished this run.

Kicker shortwave appears out of nowhere and shoved it east. Still a pretty gorgeous H5 look as I posted above. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

We’re basically at D7 for the storm being on our door step. Long way to go but I like where we sit for now. I’d like to see us in a similar position (with wiggle room to maintain a nice event) around 0z Sunday. 
 

Everyone should also remember that even an area wide 3-6” type event would be HIGH TIER for mid-Atlantic La Niña December’s.

Exactly!  If we can get a blustery 3-6" powder and some truly cold air that goes through Christmas weekend, that's a HUGE win in my book.  Like I said earlier, everyone was all ga-ga  (understandably) over the GFS showing an Arctic front blasting through with a brief period of decent snow the other day.  Point being that (most!) everyone would have been all for that even with just a couple inches of snow.  Now some other things are coming into perhaps better focus with the evolution here, in a good way for us.  Let's hope that continues.  I'd really only be disappointed if we get almost nothing and then a blast of dry cold.  But we don't have to get a HECS either (I'd take it, to be sure!).

 

21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

straight up triple phaser. beautiful evolution aloft

it's becoming clear that there's a lot of ways to score with this potential system... that's how you know the pattern is good

Right...and very good point.  We've seen different solutions from the GFS and Euro today, though overall the same general setup.  And all of those outcomes drop some decent snow here while it's more than plenty cold.  Can't complain at that.  Having some good leeway is a huge plus, let's hope that's real in the end.