Maestrobjwa Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Why is this thread littered with mentions of every god awful bust we’ve ever experienced. Is this some kind of snow reverse jinx or something??? Says the walking encyclopedia of what can possibly wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 NBMSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Who’s gonna post the JMA, the DGEX, the Deep Thunder!? I need more clown maps! It’s happy hour!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Snow climo down here is not as robust as Philly (grew up in Roxborough/Manayunk). If we manage a 4" - 8" storm out of this for Christmas proper, it will exceed norms for IAD, BWI, DCA. That's a win in my book.Philadelphia normal annual snowfall is 22.4 and Washington Dulles is 21. Wilmington is 20.2 and Baltimore BWI is 19.3. Very similar. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 48 minutes ago, H2O said: This storm looks like boxing day I'd take another chance on that setup. It was literally just a few hours off enough phasing to drag the tail across. There are some big flags regardless. Thankfully the crazy pv drops were just crazy model stuff. Looks more "realistic" now but it's still entirely a northern stream ULL with limited potential for a lead shot of WAA as it stands now. It's also a time of year where watching it all shift north D5 inwards is likely. Then there's temps... good snow requires the very first legitimate snow airmass of the year to be in place and ready to rock. This is a lot to come together. I read all posts from northern posters with a grain of salt and a pile of reality. They are chomping at the bit. They love what they see and I would too if I was forced to live in the NE. Here? I won't get involved with a quick capture or perfect ULL pass until inside of 5 days and even then it's a eternity. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 This 18z run is the biggest run since 12z…you dig? See again I used the idea of dig because we want the h5 to dig…masterful 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Negnao said: Philadelphia normal annual snowfall is 22.4 and Washington Dulles is 21. Wilmington is 20.2 and Baltimore BWI is 19.3. Very similar. . True, but the N&W Philly suburbs (a better comparison to IAD) get substantially more snow than PHL. Philly will almost always do better than the DC-area with Miller Bs (where latitude often makes a difference). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, hstorm said: True, but the N&W Philly suburbs (a better comparison to IAD) get substantially more snow than PHL. Philly will almost always do better than the DC-area with Miller Bs (where latitude often makes a difference). I just think back to how they cashed in on all three big storms in 2009-2010 like we did but they also can sometimes get clipped by bigger storms that whiff us. But generally, our storms are their storms and vice versa. Same with NYC for the most part, except for when they get a Boxing Day type deal where the shield is right on the coast, and I think one of the big 2009-2010 storms missed them just to the south. Boston is a whole different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 While we wait for the GFS, Euro Weeklies continue w/ the cold into early January. Of course a lot of this is weighted towards next week's cold snap, but the weeklies depict negative departures through much of January. This would be for the first week of January, showing cold anomalies continue with a pretty decent look up at h500. Verbatim we play with that Aleutian low attempting to encroach mainland Alaska, but not enough to conduct a fully-fledged onslaught of Pacific air. The 12z EPS looked like it would go on and do that, but that look plays out near the Day 12-15 range so there's still a lot of uncertainty w/ regards to the Pacific. Also correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that Aleutian low more characteristic of an El Niño? I recall most of the seasonal models parking an Aleutian ridge over that domain. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: While we wait for the GFS, Euro Weeklies continue w/ the cold into early January. Of course a lot of this is weighted towards next week's cold snap, but an overall impressive 30 day mean. This would be for the first week of January, showing cold anomalies continue with a pretty decent look up at h500. Verbatim we play with that Aleutian low attempting to encroach mainland Alaska, but not enough to a fully-fledged onslaught of Pacific air. The 12z EPS looked like it would go on and do that, but that look plays out near the Day 12-15 range so there's still a lot of uncertainty w/ regards to the Pacific. Also correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that Aleutian low more characteristic of an El Niño? I recall most of the seasonal models parking an Aleutian ridge over that domain. That is more Nino-ish. Nina tendency is for a ridge in that area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 its that time of year....i'm baaaaack. We gonna get a GFS play by play or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 37 minutes ago, BristowWx said: This 18z run is the biggest run since 12z…you dig? See again I used the idea of dig because we want the h5 to dig…masterful A visit to Rockwood bar and grill may be in the offing next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: its that time of year....i'm baaaaack. We gonna get a GFS play by play or what? Ridge out west looks more flat this run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Why is this thread littered with mentions of every god awful bust we’ve ever experienced. Is this some kind of snow god reverse jinx or something??? seriously if I see another March 01 reference I swear... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 I think the energy dropping out west is speed up compared to last run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 More ridging ahead of the troff at 144hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Amped said: More ridging ahead of the troff at 144hrs Yeah, looks like it may drop in farther west this run, which would be good news. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Looks way west to my untrained eye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, osfan24 said: Looks way west to my untrained eye. Can't tell yet whether that's good or bad lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yeah, looks like it may drop in farther west this run, which would be good news. Not sure. We shall see. It can be too far west and cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Negnao said: Philadelphia normal annual snowfall is 22.4 and Washington Dulles is 21. Wilmington is 20.2 and Baltimore BWI is 19.3. Very similar. Was referring to December snow climo. Obviously December 2009 is the gold standard, but just cover the grass for Christmas please. 32 minutes ago, Cobalt said: While we wait for the GFS, Euro Weeklies continue w/ the cold into early January. Of course a lot of this is weighted towards next week's cold snap, but the weeklies depict negative departures through much of January. This would be for the first week of January, showing cold anomalies continue with a pretty decent look up at h500. Verbatim we play with that Aleutian low attempting to encroach mainland Alaska, but not enough to conduct a fully-fledged onslaught of Pacific air. The 12z EPS looked like it would go on and do that, but that look plays out near the Day 12-15 range so there's still a lot of uncertainty w/ regards to the Pacific. Also correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that Aleutian low more characteristic of an El Niño? I recall most of the seasonal models parking an Aleutian ridge over that domain. Looks like cross polar flow and a solid PNA ridge. Very good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Major cyclone going to happen this run. Really digging 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Can't tell yet whether that's good or bad lol It sparks cyclogenesis along the coast earlier and snows for a long time over us. We enthusiastically take! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 BOOM!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Suface low reforms further southwest at 186 like last nights euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 LOL well that's a new solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Looks like a beat down coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Looks good to me, you have two costals increasing the snow time too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Snow into the cities by 0z next Thursday. Looks a bit euro like. But think this will end satisfactorily for most. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Snow from the VA NC border up through New England with a low right off Delaware Christmas Eve Eve 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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