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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I’m a snow addict, I’m always worrying haha, was just pointing it out after seeing OP/EPS.

Snow climo down here is not as robust as Philly (grew up in Roxborough/Manayunk). If we manage a 4" - 8" storm out of this for Christmas proper, it will exceed norms for IAD, BWI, DCA. That's a win in my book.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Snow climo down here is not as robust as Philly (grew up in Roxborough/Manayunk). If we manage a 4" - 8" storm out of this for Christmas proper, it will exceed norms for IAD, BWI, DCA. That's a win in my book.

Any measureable snow followed by arctic air right before christmas is a massive win.  Of course we all wanted a fully capture low stalled off Ocean City dumping on us a la 2016 but I'll take what we can get.

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2 minutes ago, H2O said:

When will TWC send a met to broadcast live?

I'm sure Cantore is already trying to figure out where the best thundersnow chances are... or maybe he'll just go out to Nags Head think there'll be a late 'cane around there next week and get caught in a snowstorm instead that will miss our area and dump down that way.

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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I want warnings to be hoisted. Why hasn't LWX hoisted warnings yet? Seems like there should be warnings with this package. It's less than 24 hours away...what's taking them so long? CTP already hoisted them! 

Radar looks super dry - bulk of precip going to miss north it looks like. I'm out. 

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Snow climo down here is not as robust as Philly (grew up in Roxborough/Manayunk). If we manage a 4" - 8" storm out of this for Christmas proper, it will exceed norms for IAD, BWI, DCA. That's a win in my book.

Philadelphia normal annual snowfall is 22.4 and Washington Dulles is 21. Wilmington is 20.2 and Baltimore BWI is 19.3. Very similar.


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48 minutes ago, H2O said:

This storm looks like boxing day

I'd take another chance on that setup. It was literally just a few hours off enough phasing to drag the tail across. 

There are some big flags regardless. Thankfully the crazy pv drops were just crazy model stuff. Looks more "realistic" now but it's still entirely a northern stream ULL with limited potential for a lead shot of WAA as it stands now. It's also a time of year where watching it all shift north D5 inwards is likely. Then there's temps... good snow requires the very first legitimate snow airmass of the year to be in place and ready to rock. This is a lot to come together. 

I read all posts from northern posters with a grain of salt and a pile of reality. They are chomping at the bit. They love what they see and I would too if I was forced to live in the NE. Here? I won't get involved with a quick capture or perfect ULL pass until inside of 5 days and even then it's a eternity. 

 

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1 minute ago, Negnao said:


Philadelphia normal annual snowfall is 22.4 and Washington Dulles is 21. Wilmington is 20.2 and Baltimore BWI is 19.3. Very similar.


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True, but the N&W Philly suburbs (a better comparison to IAD) get substantially more snow than PHL.

Philly will almost always do better than the DC-area with Miller Bs (where latitude often makes a difference).

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