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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


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5 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I was living in the Capitol Hill neighborhood in DC at the time.  I do remember that early morning wet snow Christmas morning, like rain changed to snow for a time I think.  We didn't get a lot other than to whiten the grass a bit, but it was pretty cool for awhile!

Got it. Yeah, it was one of those “west of the Fall Line” situations for accumulation. 

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Sloppy phase on euro a bit concerning. There’s a bunch of EPS scenarios (including control) where that lead southern vort escapes and then you’re relying on whether or not the main vort can close off in time. Too early to get too worried about that though. Just happy it showed a storm at this range


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2 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Got it. Yeah, it was one of those “west of the Fall Line” situations for accumulation. 

It really was a surprise too!  I remember it was raining, then looked out the window not long after and these fat flakes were coming down!  It ended a short time later but like I said, still pretty cool.

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9 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Sloppy phase on euro a bit concerning. There’s a bunch of EPS scenarios (including control) where that lead southern vort escapes and then you’re relying on whether or not the main vort can close off in time. Too early to get too worried about that though. Just happy it showed a storm at this range


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Hey brother are you trying to win a prize or something?

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9 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Sloppy phase on euro a bit concerning. There’s a bunch of EPS scenarios (including control) where that lead southern vort escapes and then you’re relying on whether or not the main vort can close off in time. Too early to get too worried about that though. Just happy it showed a storm at this range


.

Sounds like you're already worrying though...lol

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3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I’m a snow addict, I’m always worrying haha, was just pointing it out after seeing OP/EPS.

Snow climo down here is not as robust as Philly (grew up in Roxborough/Manayunk). If we manage a 4" - 8" storm out of this for Christmas proper, it will exceed norms for IAD, BWI, DCA. That's a win in my book.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Snow climo down here is not as robust as Philly (grew up in Roxborough/Manayunk). If we manage a 4" - 8" storm out of this for Christmas proper, it will exceed norms for IAD, BWI, DCA. That's a win in my book.

Any measureable snow followed by arctic air right before christmas is a massive win.  Of course we all wanted a fully capture low stalled off Ocean City dumping on us a la 2016 but I'll take what we can get.

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2 minutes ago, H2O said:

When will TWC send a met to broadcast live?

I'm sure Cantore is already trying to figure out where the best thundersnow chances are... or maybe he'll just go out to Nags Head think there'll be a late 'cane around there next week and get caught in a snowstorm instead that will miss our area and dump down that way.

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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I want warnings to be hoisted. Why hasn't LWX hoisted warnings yet? Seems like there should be warnings with this package. It's less than 24 hours away...what's taking them so long? CTP already hoisted them! 

Radar looks super dry - bulk of precip going to miss north it looks like. I'm out. 

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