December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[Paleocene]

very close

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Euro doesn't quite dig far enough south the get the coastal going until its a hair too late.  Still some snow but incoming NE.

i mean--id take it but its like a 390 foot fly ball as opposed to a 380 foot homer

[MN Transplant]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Great H5 pass though.

[WxUSAF]

Really nice trends the last 12-24 hours. Long way to go still, but I wanted to see the shortwave dig more , and that’s exactly what we’re getting. I’d expect a few monsters in the EPS.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

Woooo baby. Classic.

[TSSN+]

It’s 186hrs out so I’d take that look right now and run with it. 

[Ji]

any model that this is close to being an all about blizzard but gives us worst case scenario 3-6...is a pretty good run.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Just Misses the full phase, capture, and TUCK, but this is a very merry Christmas from the euro.

It develops a double barrel structure because the initial wave escapes and a second secondary low develops near the better mid and upper level energy.  Ratios would be VERY high for our area as all the snow comes associated with the upper level energy.  5-8" across most of the area.  If that was how it played MOST of us would be happy...but I actually think if that H5 pass is correct this solution is faulty and the more likely result would be a more consolidated system further south.  But none of those details matter at this range...just another pretty picture to look at while we wait a few more days for more clarity.  

[osfan24]

I like it. The Euro and GFS have the same ideas. At Day 8, that's all we can ask for. Let's see if we can get some consistency going with the storm idea and then hone in on the details come Sunday/Monday.

[MillvilleWx]

Euro would be deep winter for Christmas if that panned out. Hell, I'd take that at face and enjoy my holiday if it worked out like that. The trend is more amplification at 5H, and if you want a good storm, that's the way to go. One of the positive scenarios with these evolutions is the fact you would see snow regardless if there is a coastal or not just from the robust Arctic front that would blow through. A lot of positive takeaways in the 12z suite. 

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Woooo baby. Classic.

Agreed. Classic vort pass for a solid plowable snowfall at IAD, DCA, and BWI.

[MN Transplant]

Low max record at DCA on Christmas Eve is 23 (1989).  Could be in play.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Euro would be deep winter for Christmas if that panned out. Hell, I'd take that at face and enjoy my holiday if it worked out like that. The trend is more amplification at 5H, and if you want a good storm, that's the way to go. One of the positive scenarios with these evolutions is the fact you would see snow regardless if there is a coastal or not just from the robust Arctic front that would blow through. A lot of positive takeaways in the 12z suite. 

All aboard the Eskimo Express!

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, frd said:

I remember that well.  Philly with 14 inches I believe, then a sharp cut off to the West going from significant to nothing in a matter of miles. Snow basically moving due North with a super sharp West wall cut off. So depressing.

Second to that was the  Pamela Anderson bust, as DT called it.  March 6 th I forget the year maybe 2001 ?   Calls from Accu weather,  Paul Kocin and others for 16 to 22 inches of snow. As we all know, a total bust with only trace amounts.   

Hopefully this time we score. 

You mean this one?  http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2001/30-Dec-00.html

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, frd said:

I remember that well.  Philly with 14 inches I believe, then a sharp cut off to the West going from significant to nothing in a matter of miles. Snow basically moving due North with a super sharp West wall cut off. So depressing.

Second to that was the  Pamela Anderson bust, as DT called it.  March 6 th I forget the year maybe 2001 ?   Calls from Accu weather,  Paul Kocin and others for 16 to 22 inches of snow. As we all know, a total bust with only trace amounts.   

Hopefully this time we score. 

That bust of march '01 didnt fall apart until 18 hours prior, at least up my way. Modeling has come a long way since that time.

[Potvinsux]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You mean this one?  http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2001/30-Dec-00.html

Yup, that's the one.  2 feet in Roxbury Twp, where I grew up.  Absolutey the heaviest snow I ever saw that early afternoon.

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I like it. The Euro and GFS have the same ideas. At Day 8, that's all we can ask for. Let's see if we can get some consistency going with the storm idea and then hone in on the details come Sunday/Monday.

Very close.

On the GFS the main shortwave digging down the east side of the ridge is sharper and involves some of the energy from the shortwave coming in off the Pac under the PNA ridge. The Euro doesn't dig as sharply or as far west, which allows a vorticity ribbon from that southern wave to run out ahead and induce the lead coastal low. Just a bit out of sync.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

24 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Euro would be deep winter for Christmas if that panned out. Hell, I'd take that at face and enjoy my holiday if it worked out like that. The trend is more amplification at 5H, and if you want a good storm, that's the way to go. One of the positive scenarios with these evolutions is the fact you would see snow regardless if there is a coastal or not just from the robust Arctic front that would blow through. A lot of positive takeaways in the 12z suite. 

Yup...both the GFS and Euro would be a white Christmas with a very wintry feel.  If that were to occur, it would be the only "truly" wintry Christmas that I can recall since I moved to this area (in 2001).  You could say we technically had a white Christmas in 2009 with the leftover snow pack from that Dec. 18-19 storm.  But even then, it was being washed away right on Christmas with rain. 

And it beats the hell out of 65-70 and humid.

[yoda]

180 h5 on 12z EPS looks nice

[frd]

This is from a lack of phasing, imagine the possibilities if things work out timing-wise.  

 

[batmanbrad]

1 hour ago, frd said:

I remember that well.  Philly with 14 inches I believe, then a sharp cut off to the West going from significant to nothing in a matter of miles. Snow basically moving due North with a super sharp West wall cut off. So depressing.

Second to that was the  Pamela Anderson bust, as DT called it.  March 6 th I forget the year maybe 2001 ?   Calls from Accu weather,  Paul Kocin and others for 16 to 22 inches of snow. As we all know, a total bust with only trace amounts.   

Hopefully this time we score. 

Is it coincidence (or not) that you mention "hopefully this time we score" and "the Pamela Anderson bust" in the same message?

Speaking of DT, his latest Twitter posts feature a lot of WOOFing over the 12/23 threat...

[CAPE]

 

[frd]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

180 h5 on 12z EPS looks nice

EPS also likes the idea of the system on the 26 th. GFS and EPS both like that time period. 

[Paleocene]

[gymengineer]

3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yup...both the GFS and Euro would be a white Christmas with a very wintry feel.  If that were to occur, it would be the only "truly" wintry Christmas that I can recall since I moved to this area (in 2001).  You could say we technically had a white Christmas in 2009 with the leftover snow pack from that Dec. 18-19 storm.  But even then, it was being washed away right on Christmas with rain. 

And it beats the hell out of 65-70 and humid.

Were you too far south or east for the 2002 Christmas morning “miracle?”

[SnowGolfBro]

4 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

The 993 off Bethany Beach would work just fine lol

[Eskimo Joe]

12z EPS has great banana high from Texas to Quebec. Classic east coast storm signal.

[Bob Chill]

54 minutes ago, Ji said:

isnt dec 23 8 days away?

I was referencing storms 2&3 after white christmas

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

8 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Were you too far south or east for the 2002 Christmas morning “miracle?”

I was living in the Capitol Hill neighborhood in DC at the time.  I do remember that early morning wet snow Christmas morning, like rain changed to snow for a time I think.  We didn't get a lot other than to whiten the grass a bit, but it was pretty cool for awhile!

[osfan24]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I was referencing storms 2&3 after white christmas

2 AND 3? Ohhh baby.