December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This is a nuts 24 hour mean for this range… jeez.

LockItIn

[Buddy1987]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I’m leaving that sweet task to mappy. 
 

my return will herald in a new age of horrible moderation, subpar play by play and the Kirkland brand version of analysis. 

Nah.. forget that.. your return is going to result in biblical snows upon us! You've brought good juju before.

[mappy]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

On a plane now about to take off from Bali. It’s going to be a brutal 20 hours.  Back at IAD around 10am tomm

safe travels home! will be nice to catch up when you return! 

13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

 

Ban anyone who starts a thread. Ban them if they mention a thread. Ban them if you think they are even thinking about starting a thread. 
 

And the first person who ponders “wonder when they’ll issue warnings” ban them for life.

LOLOL Unleash the Mappy! 

[Bob Chill]

Hmmm... current plan (subject to change every 3-6 hours) is spending the 22nd - 26th at smith mtn and coming back here for the next one (with a load of snow on my equipment trailer). Climo before 2023 me thinks

[CAPE]

h5 primed for storm 2. 

[H2O]

[Bob Chill]

Check out some of these analogs... top tier stuff. Late Dec 2000 had an historic NE Miller B. We were subject to typical bad luck/timing/poor spacing when it mattered. It was a bomb tho. 

 

[Wonderdog]

21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Is a radio show acceptable? 

Stop it

[clueless]

I just looked at the GFS.  Lolz.  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

14 minutes ago, mappy said:

LOLOL Unleash the Mappy! 

[CAPE]

Way out there and plenty of spread ofc, but indications of the follow-up storm.

Imagine sipping your heavily spiked eggnog on Christmas, looking out your window at deep winter conditions, and tracking the next one. 

[frd]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Late Dec 2000 had an historic NE Miller B. We were subject to typical bad luck/timing/poor spacing

I remember that well.  Philly with 14 inches I believe, then a sharp cut off to the West going from significant to nothing in a matter of miles. Snow basically moving due North with a super sharp West wall cut off. So depressing.

Second to that was the  Pamela Anderson bust, as DT called it.  March 6 th I forget the year maybe 2001 ?   Calls from Accu weather,  Paul Kocin and others for 16 to 22 inches of snow. As we all know, a total bust with only trace amounts.   

Hopefully this time we score. 

[frd]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Way out there and plenty of spread ofc, but indications of the follow-up storm.

Imagine sipping your heavily spiked eggnog on Christmas, looking out your window at deep winter conditions, and tracking the next one. 

Another one for the low lands, or at least it appears that way currently. 

I recall a Nina snow event in the early 2000's and it was brutal after the snow.  These twin snowstorms could cause significant disruptions in travel if they occur. Whatever falls will be around for a while, no doubt very cold with dangerous wind chills.  

 

[Solution Man]

58 minutes ago, bluehens said:

For entertainment purposes only.  Need this to shift north 50 miles.

Christmas Numb Clown Map

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Way out there and plenty of spread ofc, but indications of the follow-up storm.

Imagine sipping your heavily spiked eggnog on Christmas, looking out your window at deep winter conditions, and tracking the next one. 

 

If my eggnog is spiked well enough, I'll be able to look out my window and see deep winter conditions and track the next one, regardless of what the actual weather is! 

[Maestrobjwa]

27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Check out some of these analogs... top tier stuff. Late Dec 2000 had an historic NE Miller B. We were subject to typical bad luck/timing/poor spacing when it mattered. It was a bomb tho. 

 

But the fact that only one of those worked for us (2009) shows ya how difficult it can still be. Not the best history, lol Another reason to keep expectations tempered...

[Quasievil]

36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Check out some of these analogs... top tier stuff. Late Dec 2000 had an historic NE Miller B. We were subject to typical bad luck/timing/poor spacing when it mattered. It was a bomb tho. 

 

12-18-2009 is an exceptional analog!

[lpaschall]

1 hour ago, Paleocene said:

Another snow storm chase to OC

 

 

[Ji]

39 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Way out there and plenty of spread ofc, but indications of the follow-up storm.

Imagine sipping your heavily spiked eggnog on Christmas, looking out your window at deep winter conditions, and tracking the next one. 

hey , can we get the first one first 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

hey , can we get the first one first 

The more dice rolls the better brother!

[Bob Chill]

29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But the fact that only one of those worked for us (2009) shows ya how difficult it can still be. Not the best history, lol Another reason to keep expectations tempered...

That level of detail is too much for using analogs like this. Lots of little things can make or break things in yards and no 2 storms are alike. Having a big east coast storm signal like this at D11+ range is all that matters. Risk of fail only applies once a big storm forms. That's a long ways away

[Twilly05]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

On a plane now about to take off from Bali. It’s going to be a brutal 20 hours.  Back at IAD around 10am tomm

Godspeed 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Twilly05 said:

Godspeed 

When you ride First Class like Storm…20 hours don’t matter

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That level of detail is too much for using analogs like this. Lots of little things can make or break things in yards and no 2 storms are alike. Having a big east coast storm signal like this at D11+ range is all that matters. Risk of fail only applies once a big storm forms. That's a long ways away

isnt dec 23 8 days away?

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, Clueless said:

I just looked at the GFS.  Lolz.  

I just looked at the CMC.  Lolz.

[LP08]

Euro doesn't quite dig far enough south the get the coastal going until its a hair too late.  Still some snow but incoming NE.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Euro is a missed connection with the phase but it still snows before the arctic front so I'll take it.

[LP08]

Great H5 pass though.

[MN Transplant]

Missing the first low but a secondary low develops in a good spot

edit - nice 3-6”

[WxUSAF]

Just Misses the full phase, capture, and TUCK, but this is a very merry Christmas from the euro.