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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

:hurrbear:

Ji won’t like it. PSU will rationalize it. CAPE will love it but downplay it. I’ll be like “whatever”. You will make jokes regardless. Yeoman will crack me up 5 times. Mattie will be mad about stupid comments (like this one). Mappy will ban someone. H2O will philosophically tie this to something funny. Clskinsfan will say he’s happy for the cities. NPZ will lament moving further west. WxUSAF will sarcastically predict mixing. Bob will leave the forum for a month. Millville will post optimism that keeps everyone suckered in. This is how it will go.

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Just now, H2O said:

One whole week for it to adjust so far north I will still end up with weather like we have today. And usual places look like LES Buffalo from a few weeks ago

lol i just got the dog situation worked out for next weekend and here it is showing chances of snow on their drop off day. 

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8 minutes ago, H2O said:

One whole week for it to adjust so far north I will still end up with weather like we have today. And usual places look like LES Buffalo from a few weeks ago

Yea, worried about this given the trend for all coastals lately for those of us along/east of 95.

Please Santa, let this depiction of 850mb temps and wind direction when the storm is cranking be true. (yeah yeah op run 200+ hours I know, but this is a beautiful storm headed to the benchmark...)

and to further, 2m temps are basically in the teens/low 20s across our region at this point lol. weeniest run in a while

 

gfs_T850_neus_35.png

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Regardless of the precise snow amounts shown, fact is we all would stand to get at least a halfway decent amount or more in time for Christmas.  The other day everyone was all excited about that Arctic front blast that was showing up, even as it gave far less snow than this depicts now today.  I'm glad it's showing more of a potential for a coastal storm at this point instead of a frontal passage.

(ETA:  Looking at the temps, it would be like cold powder for everyone too)

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The shortwave that gets it done shoots SE out of an EPO ridge wave break, after a lead piece comes out and moves into the 50-50 position. The 0z run did this, but 12z did it better. (The 6z run brought too much energy out in the lead wave, with not much trailing energy). PNA ridge axis is perfect.

Beautiful progression.

1671753600-5s5rT3Hq1Ls.png

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We all know this dance.  PSU will scream fringed 1000000000 times and run after run will adjust until Mt. Westminster becomes Donner pass and the low gets so TUCKED that a beverly hill plastic surgeon will be impressed.

 

Too add: I will sweat the warm nose again because in order to get that sweet non fringed set up for the N folks we need it 10 miles off OC and blasting 850s above 3C

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Meanwhile the Ukie is dumping all the energy out West like the data was showing few days ago and CMC overwhelms the pattern with the lead wave. We are 7-8+ days away. So temper expectations and don’t fret the details. Just keep hoping you see it he same general setup around 144 hours with the 50/50 and main S/W behind it. We’re still at the range where everything can go poof. I honestly don’t really care what the Ukie shows beyond 96 hours unless it gives us a blizzard, just posting for a reality check11b7a91df1e8af395425c95ebd3b238c.gif


.

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