Ian Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 6 hours ago, WxUSAF said: The -NAO starts building at D5. That’s not fantasy land. plus the mechanisms that kick it off are already getting underway in the Scandi/Kara Sea region. would be a pretty ugly bust on ensembles for -NAO not to materialize. more about details etc. from earlier today with some quotes from Wes: https://wapo.st/3io8anP 21 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, Ian said: plus the mechanisms that kick it off are already getting underway in the Scandi/Kara Sea region. would be a pretty ugly bust on ensembles for -NAO not to materialize. more about details etc. from earlier today with some quotes from west: https://wapo.st/3io8anP Hello stranger. Nice article by the way 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Hello stranger. Nice article by the way Thanks! Think I'm quitting Twitter so maybe I'll remember to come here lol. Prob more a game of details like how/if suppression, how long it lasts etc. Background state shouldn't support it for a long time but they do roll once you get strong -NAO/-AO. Boxing Day has been #1 for a while so prepare for DC flurries. This is a great pattern advertised tho. I mean can't ask for a ton more at this range except maybe for a Nino instead of a nina. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 GFS OP shows how we can score mid month (caveat: it’ll change wildly, rely on the ensembles, etc). Should at least be more exciting than last December where we didn’t stand a chance (even in the mountains). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 hours ago, Ian said: plus the mechanisms that kick it off are already getting underway in the Scandi/Kara Sea region. would be a pretty ugly bust on ensembles for -NAO not to materialize. more about details etc. from earlier today with some quotes from Wes: https://wapo.st/3io8anP Wow a blast from the past. This must be a good sign. Welcome back, great to have you posting again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 hours ago, Ian said: Thanks! Think I'm quitting Twitter so maybe I'll remember to come here lol. Prob more a game of details like how/if suppression, how long it lasts etc. Background state shouldn't support it for a long time but they do roll once you get strong -NAO/-AO. Boxing Day has been #1 for a while so prepare for DC flurries. This is a great pattern advertised tho. I mean can't ask for a ton more at this range except maybe for a Nino instead of a nina. 82 winter the record setting Cold Sundays and 79 the bomb snow. and of course Hi Ian!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 hours ago, Ian said: plus the mechanisms that kick it off are already getting underway in the Scandi/Kara Sea region. would be a pretty ugly bust on ensembles for -NAO not to materialize. more about details etc. from earlier today with some quotes from Wes: https://wapo.st/3io8anP Great seeing you here. Well written article! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 WB 18Z GFS…v. 0Z variability continues but this is why I get little sleep during tracking season…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 WB 0Z EPS for the 13th 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Seeing some hints among the members for something around the 12th-13th. These blocky patterns sometimes have to mature a bit before we get our chances, but this timeframe might be the first shot at a significant event for the MA. 6 hour panels so there are a few others prior to and after this window. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 I’m flying out on the 12th for a work trip and returning on the 15th. It’ll certainly snow here that week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 This look appears as one of the more colder and aggressive clusters from @burgwx that he posted yesterday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 12 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’m flying out on the 12th for a work trip and returning on the 15th. It’ll certainly snow here that week. I am home after a work trip the previous week...that should even things out for it to be partly cloudy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 0z Euro shows a southern slider solution for the 10th at the end of its run, it’s fun seeing cold and snow for the long range forecast instead of a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 @CAPE big storm potential leading up to Christmas. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 I can guarantee you there will be all kinds of winter mayhem between Christmas and New Year's since I will be away visiting Disney during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, frd said: @CAPE big storm potential leading up to Christmas. Based on the advertised progression that makes some sense. We haven't done big Dec snow often, esp lately, so we shall see how much a milder climo factors in. These patterns don't tend to be super cold, but generally just cold enough, which in the past has worked out pretty well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 CFS also going Aleutian low/ amped EPO ridge at the end of Dec into Jan. This would bring legit cold. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 41 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’m flying out on the 12th for a work trip and returning on the 15th. It’ll certainly snow here that week. Ha. I’m traveling that week also. Mentally calculating how much it would cost me in a one way rental car to get home for our KU if my flight gets cancelled 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2022 Author Share Posted November 30, 2022 29 minutes ago, frd said: @CAPE big storm potential leading up to Christmas. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 ^that image of the CFS is drool worthy screensaver material. I'm not sure it gets better than that epic look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: CFS also going Aleutian low/ amped EPO ridge at the end of Dec into Jan. This would bring legit cold. Yes, signs point to a significant - EPO reload. Of note as well, are signs of a warming event near the pole. The pattern is locked and loaded it would appear. Should the pattern evolve as modeled significant snow cover will be located to our North and West and maybe over our region as well. Appears that the cryosphere will be healthy to deliver the possibility of intense cold originating in NW Canada then moving SE over snow covered grounds with little moderation at a time of very low sun angle and solar output. Something not seen in a very, very long time. A 1960s analog type deal. Also, this is the last day of the month so I give the CFS a decent chance of verifying for December. It should be in its wheelhouse of best skill for the next month. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 hour ago, frd said: Yes, signs point to a significant - EPO reload. Of note as well, are signs of a warming event near the pole. The pattern is locked and loaded it would appear. Should the pattern evolve as modeled significant snow cover will be located to our North and West and maybe over our region as well. Appears that the cryosphere will be healthy to deliver the possibility of intense cold originating in NW Canada then moving SE over snow covered grounds with little moderation at a time of very low sun angle and solar output. Something not seen in a very, very long time. A 1960s analog type deal. Also, this is the last day of the month so I give the CFS a decent chance of verifying for December. It should be in its wheelhouse of best skill for the next month. CFS sniffed out the blocky look that now appears imminent pretty early. There isn't much not to like about that look. Can even see the indication of energy taking the southern route under the ridge and ejecting eastward. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: CFS sniffed out the blocky look that now appears eminent pretty early. There isn't much not to like about that look. Can even see the indication of energy taking the southern route under the ridge and ejecting eastward. I mean the 12z CFS from yesterday gives me 30 inches of snow throughout December so I'll take it, in fact, it even has your December 13th snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: CFS sniffed out the blocky look that now appears eminent pretty early. There isn't much not to like about that look. Can even see the indication of energy taking the southern route under the ridge and ejecting eastward. Weenie question but is that indicated by those squiggly 500 bars over Mexico? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Just more data on how significant this upcoming Greenland blocking event is going to be. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Time for a Don Sutherland post about deeply negative AO and EPO and the correlation to the rest of winter. Combine that with an Ian post focusing on when the cold will end and a Matt post about how horrible our climo is regardless of indexes and we are all set 3 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 When Allan gets excited I know its the real deal. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 i understand that some of you guys are skeptical about December snow, and rightfully so, but this is basically a perfect pattern for a large snowfall event a 300+ meter anomaly over the Davis Strait on a 5 day mean is the stuff of dreams 9 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 minute ago, frd said: When Allan gets excited I know its the real deal. North Carolina guys getting excited is generally a pink flag for me but the pattern is looking ripe at least 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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