poolz1 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, frd said: Things looking good moving into Jan. PV still under pressure even though it may temporarily get a little stronger. Scandi High and good support for a + PNA. Also looks active. Exciting possibilities next week and later in the month. EPS had some really deep members at this range for the 23 rd. Could be a rather intense cyclone along with very high winds. As other have noted this morn...it really does look ripe for a major storm. I would love to start tracking something legit . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 The 15th at 12z was always my date to start looking for real opportunities or for the "pattern" to not be real....gut feel is the 12z runs today show a nice hit or two in the near future 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Everyone needs to adopt the balanced, measured attitude and reasonable expectations of…*checks notes*… @leesburg 04? 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 15 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said: That was an amazing period ushered in by that nifty squall along the Arctic front on Feb. 14! But there was another period that was pretty decent, too...Jan. 30-Feb. 10, 2010? (ETA: I joke a bit of course, because everyone knows about 2009-10. But in all seriousness you're right about us being streaky AF here, or so it seems. Even that record-breaking 2009-10 winter was streaky: amazing December that started early and then the HECS...followed by kind of "meh" late December through much of January...followed by that amazing 12 days from end of January into mid-February.) I missed adding 2015 in that edit. Lol. 09-10 is the big dog grandaddy but there was a ton of dead space that winter even with obscene totals. Dec storm was almost written off 72 hours out. It wasn't a long track like the first Feb storm or Jan 2016. Jan was rather frustrating until the lucky last minute north trend. From a tracking perspective I don't remember 09-10 being busy like the 13-15 stretch. Or Feb/Mar 2003. Those periods are what enthusiasts really thrive in. Multiple threat threads for events with different synoptics is what I define as a heater. It's subjective of course. 13-15 stretch taught us a lot. We can snow from nearly any angle or setup that has a chance.... as long as a difficult to move cold dome is centered close by even if it's running away. Nobody can ever convince me that precip comes before cold because in my yard it certainly does not and when it accidentally does, it's gone before my coffee Eta: once the artic front clears our area, it keeps the door open for some chances. Not none or one and done imo. If hl blocking follows a typical progression with a relax and reload it could crack the door open on a heater period with different setups or even a hostile west track dump. This is what I'm really focused on and why I have little to say leading into the first real cold. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, poolz1 said: As other have noted this morn...it really does look ripe for a major storm. I would love to start tracking something legit . HM is onboard 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 looks like the 06z EPS would end up more favorable than 00z... stronger block would lead to more confluence, and the initial vort is stronger as well. wish we could see this play out 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: looks like the 06z EPS would end up more favorable than 00z... stronger block would lead to more confluence, and the initial vort is stronger as well. wish we could see this play out And a better defined 50/50 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 2nd edition weenie handbook...Chapter 33 Section 69 states "When the GFS has a storm off the coast while the other globals are hits, we say 'It's right where we want to see it for now'". 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 52 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: The 15th at 12z was always my date to start looking for real opportunities or for the "pattern" to not be real....gut feel is the 12z runs today show a nice hit or two in the near future When is our next 70F day? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 I found some old but very relevant attachments related to AO behavior. First off, assuming Dec AO comes in around -2, this Dec joins some good company. Gotta remove the Nino's so not elite but good company in general Using the AO and enso as simple filters, it brings 2010-11, 2005-06. 2000-01, 1995-96, and 1985-86 to the front of the line. Here's how the daily AO graph played out for 2 of those years. If I can find the time I'll graph 05-06, 95-96 and 85-86 soon. They will be similar tho. I remember looking at this before Unsurprisingly, the 2 biggest storms those years came with a deeply negative AO moving towards neutral leading in. That seems to be a common theme with decent storms in non-nino years. Nino years don't care as much. Big block and southern stream is enough by itself. Lol 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: When is our next 70F day? tell you at 12z 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I found some old but very relevant attachments related to AO behavior. First off, assuming Dec AO comes in around -2, this Dec joins some good company. Gotta remove the Nina's so not elite but good company in general Using the AO and enso as simple filters, it brings 2010-11, 2005-06. 2000-01, 1995-96, and 1985-86 to the front of the line. Here's how the daily AO graph played out for 2 of those years. If I can find the time I'll graph 05-06, 95-96 and 85-86 soon. They will be similar tho. I remember looking at this before Unsurprisingly, the 2 biggest storms those years came with a deeply negative AO moving towards neutral leading in. That seems to be a common theme with decent storms in non-nino years. Nino years don't care as much. Big block and southern stream is enough by itself. Lol Nice comparison. Next week we follow the same general idea. Deeply negative - AO peaks shortly, maybe -4.25, then moves slowly back towards neutral next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Amazing how quickly the + PNA forecast came about. Today it appears even more positive for next week versus yesterday. HM feels the + PNA signal is real. I believe we want a more significant+ PNA next week to drive our disturbance South. The snowier and more favorable EPS clusters have a more pronounced+ PNA. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 17 minutes ago, frd said: Amazing how quickly the + PNA forecast came about. Today it appears even more positive for next week versus yesterday. HM feels the + PNA signal is real. I believe we want a more significant+ PNA next week to drive our disturbance South. The snowier and more favorable EPS clusters have a more pronounced+ PNA. Not surprising this came on quick. HM has said in the past that PNA and EPO forecasting beyond D7 isn't as reliable as the AO/NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 22 minutes ago, frd said: Amazing how quickly the + PNA forecast came about. Today it appears even more positive for next week versus yesterday. HM feels the + PNA signal is real. I believe we want a more significant+ PNA next week to drive our disturbance South. The snowier and more favorable EPS clusters have a more pronounced+ PNA. It's very common to get all ridgy and bluebirdy out west after a long storm cycle in Nina December's. It can be very persistent before breaking down. I hated this cycle when I lived out west. We don't remember this much here though because a Dec +pna pattern in the MA during a Nina is cold front or rain, 3 cold days, repeat. An anomalous blocking period changes this. How much for the better is hard to say with confidence. Previous Dec threats with similar longwave patterns still didn't do well. We almost never get big snow in Dec for real reasons and not bad luck. You almost have to root against a big wind up no matter the track. Imo only, the "easiest" way to get a foot of snow out of the upcoming pattern is back to back weakish waves running more horizontal than vertical. The proverbial train tracks and hose. When things wind up it becomes way too easy to inhale the wrong kind of air anywhere east of the blue ridge lol 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's very common to get all ridgy and bluebirdy out west after a long storm cycle in Nina December's. It can be very persistent before breaking down. I hated this cycle when I lived out west. We don't remember this much here though because a Dec +pna pattern in the MA during a Nina is cold front or rain, 3 cold days, repeat. An anomalous blocking period changes this. How much for the better is hard to say with confidence. Previous Dec threats with similar longwave patterns still didn't do well. We almost never get big snow in Dec for real reasons and not bad luck. You almost have to root against a big wind up no matter the track. Imo only, the "easiest" way to get a foot of snow out of the upcoming pattern is back to back weakish waves running more horizontal than vertical. The proverbial train tracks and hose. When things wind up it becomes way too easy to inhale the wrong kind of air anywhere east of the blue ridge lol If I'm reading this correctly, is it reasonable to say we shouldn't have any real hopes for a significant snow event out of this potential for next week? If so, what type of trend for this potential should I be pulling for on the models in the coming days that you would say would lead to the most realistic shot of any type of accumulating snow, for the period around next Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Me “ working” . 9 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 I'm so proud of you 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 "that's all fine and well, General, but are you aware of the potential if a piece of the PV gets caught under the block?" 4 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, North Balti Zen said: "that's all fine and well, General, but are you aware of the potential if a piece of the PV gets caught under the block?" We cannot afford a blocking gap! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 This won't be a 06z type run. Looking ripe... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 PNA Ridge looking sharper through 150... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: "that's all fine and well, General, but are you aware of the potential if a piece of the PV gets caught under the block?" General: "we have to have precip first, son. Now tell me how we can shoot it if it has sinister intentions." 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, poolz1 said: This won't be a 06z type run. Looking ripe... I was toggling back forth. looks more like 0z taller ridge out west. but I dont see as strong a shortwave in NW region of US. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, WeatherShak said: Me “ working” . I'm telling ya there is an addictive quality to this hobby that has us lookin' at this when we ain't got no business doin' so, lolol Probably everybody on this board has done this! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 That ridge is screaming dig. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: This won't be a 06z type run. Looking ripe... Looks much more like 0z, which is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Looks diggier and better than 0z in my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Wow ! big changes for the better. Vort really digging 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 I'm "diggin" this. see what I did there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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