Weather Will Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 We definitely have cold air to work with late next week unlike today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 That’s one of the more interesting scenarios. 963 mb on MD/PA line, sign me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 WB 0Z EPS 6 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 I’ll take that EPS look any day. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 I’ll take that EPS look any day. Damn 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 34 minutes ago, Ji said: 41 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’ll take that EPS look any day. Damn Seeing Ji get excited is better than seeing a pasting on any guidance. Might require the "its happening" jawn in the coming days. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 The big ones are sniffed out early. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Interstate said: The big ones are sniffed out early. This is why my wife said yes on our first date. 1 8 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baldereagle Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 This is simply outstanding!! Well done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 WB 6 GFS is trending in the right direction….WB 6Z yesterday compared to today. No surface low like EURO. Let’s see what GEFS says… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Gfs is like good I got you interested at 0z and euro fired you up, here’s no storm at 6z cause screw you guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6 GFS is trending in the right direction….WB 6Z yesterday compared to today. No surface low like EURO. Let’s see what GEFS says… Isn't it trending towards colder but also dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 There is no distinct shortwave on the 6z run, just a broad lobe of strung out vorticity. PNA ridge is a bit too amped with the axis further east. Not enough dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 We want to see sharpness in the trough, and for it dig to our SW. This run does neither. Too progressive and leads to a low forming wayyy offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: We want to see sharpness in the trough, and for it dig to our SW. This run does neither. Too progressive and leads to a low forming wayyy offshore. You don’t want a perfect solution 9 days out the signal is there for a storm that’s all you can ask for at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: You don’t want a perfect solution 9 days out the signal is there for a storm that’s all you can ask for at this point in time. Thanks dude. Now my mind is right and I can carry on with my day. 2 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 6z GEFS a bit further offshore (expected given the op run). Not bad. Many more iterations to go. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z GEFS a bit further offshore (expected given the op run). Not bad. Many more iterations to go. WB 6Z GEFS…hopefully by Monday there will be consensus. This is under 8 days now. At least we don’t have a trend toward a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS…hopefully by Monday there will be consensus. This is under 8 days now. At least we don’t have a trend toward a cutter. I like where things are now. Still far enough out that this could morph into something different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I like where things are now. Still far enough out that this could morph into something different. Thanks dude. Now my mind is right and I can carry on with my day. 2 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I like where things are now. Still far enough out that this could morph into something different. 6z gefs looks good for the beaches lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Hot damn. This checks all the boxes for big east coast winter storm. Elongated PV toward the 50-50 region? Check. -NAO in Baffin Island region? Check. -AO? —-AO! +PNA with inland ridge axis? Check. Big shortwave diving south? Check. 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hot damn. This checks all the boxes for big east coast winter storm. Elongated PV toward the 50-50 region? Check. -NAO in Baffin Island region? Check. -AO? —-AO! +PNA with inland ridge axis? Check. Big shortwave diving south? Check. There has to be something a miss if the cluster is off shore. trough not deep enough? maybe the surface depiction hasn't caught up with h5 depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, TSSN+ said: Gfs is like good I got you interested at 0z and euro fired you up, here’s no storm at 6z cause screw you guys. Did the exact thing with todays storm at the same range. Wouldnt buy what it's selling until other guidance follows suit for a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: There has to be something a miss if the cluster is off shore. trough not deep enough? maybe the surface depiction hasn't caught up with h5 depiction. Ensembles work by perturbing the intensity and location of features to account for errors and uncertainty. At D7-8, it’s perfectly normal to have a much broader area of low pressure than what will ultimately occur. Plus, always be a little more skeptical when a model suite’s solutions are playing up its biases: 1. Progressive bias for GFS 2. over amplified bias for Euro 3. wonky 2m temps for GGEM 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2nd edition weenie handbook...Chapter 33 Section 69 states "When the GFS has a storm off the coast while the other globals are hits, we say 'It's right where we want to see it for now'". 4 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Two days ago the euro had San Diego at 10 degrees and the gfs has had a different solution every run and some on here are still shaking in their boots over the 6z gfs? I mean I'm an idiot and even I can tell the models are working their way towards something and are a few days away from any sort of consistency 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ensembles work by perturbing the intensity and location of features to account for errors and uncertainty. At D7-8, it’s perfectly normal to have a much broader area of low pressure than what will ultimately occur. Plus, always be a little more skeptical when a model suite’s solutions are playing up its biases: 1. Progressive bias for GFS 2. over amplified bias for Euro 3. wonky 2m temps for GGEM Roger. I appreciate the info. Didn't know the wonky 2m temp one but it makes sense having seen what it spits out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 All 3 globals with a solid signal for scan ridging to return D12-15. With the MJO forecast to pretty much mirror its last rotation you have to wonder if we set this whole pattern progression up again early Jan. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, poolz1 said: All 3 globals with a solid signal for scan ridging to return D12-15. With the MJO forecast to pretty much mirror its last rotation you have to wonder if we set this whole pattern progression up again early Jan. It seems we may get a RELOAD after a slight relaxation. No signs of a 'close the blinds' period. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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