ravensrule Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Interstate said: The big ones are sniffed out early. This is why my wife said yes on our first date. 1 8 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baldereagle Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 This is simply outstanding!! Well done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 WB 6 GFS is trending in the right direction….WB 6Z yesterday compared to today. No surface low like EURO. Let’s see what GEFS says… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Gfs is like good I got you interested at 0z and euro fired you up, here’s no storm at 6z cause screw you guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6 GFS is trending in the right direction….WB 6Z yesterday compared to today. No surface low like EURO. Let’s see what GEFS says… Isn't it trending towards colder but also dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 There is no distinct shortwave on the 6z run, just a broad lobe of strung out vorticity. PNA ridge is a bit too amped with the axis further east. Not enough dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 We want to see sharpness in the trough, and for it dig to our SW. This run does neither. Too progressive and leads to a low forming wayyy offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: We want to see sharpness in the trough, and for it dig to our SW. This run does neither. Too progressive and leads to a low forming wayyy offshore. You don’t want a perfect solution 9 days out the signal is there for a storm that’s all you can ask for at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: You don’t want a perfect solution 9 days out the signal is there for a storm that’s all you can ask for at this point in time. Thanks dude. Now my mind is right and I can carry on with my day. 2 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 6z GEFS a bit further offshore (expected given the op run). Not bad. Many more iterations to go. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: 6z GEFS a bit further offshore (expected given the op run). Not bad. Many more iterations to go. WB 6Z GEFS…hopefully by Monday there will be consensus. This is under 8 days now. At least we don’t have a trend toward a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS…hopefully by Monday there will be consensus. This is under 8 days now. At least we don’t have a trend toward a cutter. I like where things are now. Still far enough out that this could morph into something different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I like where things are now. Still far enough out that this could morph into something different. Thanks dude. Now my mind is right and I can carry on with my day. 2 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I like where things are now. Still far enough out that this could morph into something different. 6z gefs looks good for the beaches lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 Hot damn. This checks all the boxes for big east coast winter storm. Elongated PV toward the 50-50 region? Check. -NAO in Baffin Island region? Check. -AO? —-AO! +PNA with inland ridge axis? Check. Big shortwave diving south? Check. 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hot damn. This checks all the boxes for big east coast winter storm. Elongated PV toward the 50-50 region? Check. -NAO in Baffin Island region? Check. -AO? —-AO! +PNA with inland ridge axis? Check. Big shortwave diving south? Check. There has to be something a miss if the cluster is off shore. trough not deep enough? maybe the surface depiction hasn't caught up with h5 depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, TSSN+ said: Gfs is like good I got you interested at 0z and euro fired you up, here’s no storm at 6z cause screw you guys. Did the exact thing with todays storm at the same range. Wouldnt buy what it's selling until other guidance follows suit for a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 15, 2022 Author Share Posted December 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: There has to be something a miss if the cluster is off shore. trough not deep enough? maybe the surface depiction hasn't caught up with h5 depiction. Ensembles work by perturbing the intensity and location of features to account for errors and uncertainty. At D7-8, it’s perfectly normal to have a much broader area of low pressure than what will ultimately occur. Plus, always be a little more skeptical when a model suite’s solutions are playing up its biases: 1. Progressive bias for GFS 2. over amplified bias for Euro 3. wonky 2m temps for GGEM 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2nd edition weenie handbook...Chapter 33 Section 69 states "When the GFS has a storm off the coast while the other globals are hits, we say 'It's right where we want to see it for now'". 4 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Two days ago the euro had San Diego at 10 degrees and the gfs has had a different solution every run and some on here are still shaking in their boots over the 6z gfs? I mean I'm an idiot and even I can tell the models are working their way towards something and are a few days away from any sort of consistency 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ensembles work by perturbing the intensity and location of features to account for errors and uncertainty. At D7-8, it’s perfectly normal to have a much broader area of low pressure than what will ultimately occur. Plus, always be a little more skeptical when a model suite’s solutions are playing up its biases: 1. Progressive bias for GFS 2. over amplified bias for Euro 3. wonky 2m temps for GGEM Roger. I appreciate the info. Didn't know the wonky 2m temp one but it makes sense having seen what it spits out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 All 3 globals with a solid signal for scan ridging to return D12-15. With the MJO forecast to pretty much mirror its last rotation you have to wonder if we set this whole pattern progression up again early Jan. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, poolz1 said: All 3 globals with a solid signal for scan ridging to return D12-15. With the MJO forecast to pretty much mirror its last rotation you have to wonder if we set this whole pattern progression up again early Jan. It seems we may get a RELOAD after a slight relaxation. No signs of a 'close the blinds' period. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: It seems we may get a RELOAD after a slight relaxation. No signs of a 'close the blinds' period. Would be pretty sweet considering the time of year and we would have a much better base state to start from. Nothing in the NH needs major work and isn't a terrible look as it is. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Ensembles work by perturbing the intensity and location of features to account for errors and uncertainty. At D7-8, it’s perfectly normal to have a much broader area of low pressure than what will ultimately occur. Plus, always be a little more skeptical when a model suite’s solutions are playing up its biases: 1. Progressive bias for GFS 2. over amplified bias for Euro 3. wonky 2m temps for GGEM Hypothetically given these known biases wouldn’t the GGEM be the best model for this setup for the general progression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: It seems we may get a RELOAD after a slight relaxation. No signs of a 'close the blinds' period. Any signs of the "quit weather learn to macramé" signal noted yesterday with anomalous warmth even with a trough east/ridge west combo as mentioned by PSU? I did note the kind of positive-ish EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Would be pretty sweet considering the time of year and we would have a much better base state to start from. Nothing in the NH needs major work and isn't a terrible look as it is. Things looking good moving into Jan. PV still under pressure even though it may temporarily get a little stronger. Scandi High and good support for a + PNA. Also looks active. Exciting possibilities next week and later in the month. EPS had some really deep members at this range for the 23 rd. Could be a rather intense cyclone along with very high winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Hot damn. This checks all the boxes for big east coast winter storm. Elongated PV toward the 50-50 region? Check. -NAO in Baffin Island region? Check. -AO? —-AO! +PNA with inland ridge axis? Check. Big shortwave diving south? Check. Oooooo! I want to play too!! Thanks dude. Now my mind is right and I can carry on with my day. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Any signs of the "quit weather learn to macramé" signal noted yesterday with anomalous warmth even with a trough east/ridge west combo as mentioned by PSU? I did note the kind of positive-ish EPO. Some advertised relaxation in the -EPO/WPO yes, but at the same time the PNA is going positive. Still an overall favorable look at day 15, and ofc that's way out there so we just can't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Oooooo! I want to play too!! Thanks dude. Now my mind is right and I can carry on with my day. Not until you are told how it is by some rando from another sub. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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