December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS

[Paleocene]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS

 

 

I don't have the hi-res maps, but it seems like cold air should be in place somewhat before that low pops off the coast.

 

[Steve25]

The thing I'm not understanding about the "cold chasing precip never works" people is that next week there's a semblance of cold air already around BEFORE the potential storm takes shape next week. Obviously if the low forms right over us or to the west, it doesn't really matter what the temperatures are coming in, at least in terms of pure snow. Just from what I can see, it seems like this is almost entirely about where the main low pressure takes over vs not having enough cold air in place to make it work. 

Correct me if I'm wrong. Many much more intelligent folks in here. 

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

The thing I'm not understanding about the "cold chasing precip never works" people is that next week there's a semblance of cold air already around BEFORE the potential storm takes shape next week. Obviously if the low forms right over us or to the west, it doesn't really matter what the temperatures are coming in, at least in terms of pure snow. Just from what I can see, it seems like this is almost entirely about where the main low pressure takes over vs not having enough cold air in place to make it work. 

Correct me if I'm wrong. Many much more intelligent folks in here. 

You're correct.  If this sort of redeveloper scenario ends up happening, it all depends on where the energy transfer occurs and how strong the Lakes low will be as that's happening.  If you look closely, GGEM and Euro have a little snow from the coastal at the start today, then quick change to rain, then snow with the arctic front.  Very complicated and lots of subtle details.

For now, we want the strong shortwave to enter the Plains farther east and dig farther south.  

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

You're correct.  If this sort of redeveloper scenario ends up happening, it all depends on where the energy transfer occurs and how strong the Lakes low will be as that's happening.  If you look closely, GGEM and Euro have a little snow from the coastal at the start today, then quick change to rain, then snow with the arctic front.  Very complicated and lots of subtle details.

For now, we want the strong shortwave to enter the Plains farther east and dig farther south.  

what does your gut tell you where this one is headed.  just curious.  mine tells me a strong primary low north of KY is bad but maybe in this type scenario it can work.  I feel like we saw this recently like early last week/previous week or so when this Friday looked to be a more wintry event.  it evolved obviously.  isn't this the same really?  

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

You're correct.  If this sort of redeveloper scenario ends up happening, it all depends on where the energy transfer occurs and how strong the Lakes low will be as that's happening.  If you look closely, GGEM and Euro have a little snow from the coastal at the start today, then quick change to rain, then snow with the arctic front.  Very complicated and lots of subtle details.

For now, we want the strong shortwave to enter the Plains farther east and dig farther south.  

Around the TN valley would be nice  Now, apologies if I asked before, but...the Commutagedon storm (late Jan 2011)...we went from rain to snow (in fact that's the last time I remember that order happening, lol). How did that work again?

[aldie 22]

For now i'm thrilled to see that an event can produce over an inch of liquid....they all won't hit but if one does....weeeeeeee!!!!

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

@psuhoffmanim starting to think the most important thing we need is an active Southern Jet. Seems like -NAO/-AO/PNA whatever never really matters anymore cause we can get a snowstorm from the Gulf like 

Gulf storms that don't fight like hell to rain typically only happen in JFM (mostly FM). Dec gulf storms almost always rain here. We've had more than you remember because they didn't look good cuz it was too warm lol

 

Imo only, the most important thing is deep cold at the surface and mids. I don't mean frigid air. Just a cold dome that pushes at least to the triad in NC or the TN valley. Otherwise return flow in front of anything can chase away a decent column with ease (which is typical in Dec). I have yet to see a single airmass set up proper on guidance since Thanksgiving. Climo is fighting the cold press (as expected unfortunately). 

Before judging anything so far this very early season... let's wait until an airmass presses down that can actually work for more than 2 days 

[Wonderdog]

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

what does your gut tell you where this one is headed.  just curious.  mine tells me a strong primary low north of KY is bad but maybe in this type scenario it can work.  I feel like we saw this recently like early last week/previous week or so when this Friday looked to be a more wintry event.  it evolved obviously.  isn't this the same really?  

This is a Miller B setup as it stands today. They usually don't work out for us, do they?

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

This is a Miller B setup as it stands today. They usually don't work out for us, do they?

they can under certain circumstances...like have a block send the primary south of where it normally would be and reforming off ORF but keeping the primary tugging it back west.  it just rarely works out that way. 

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

what does your gut tell you where this one is headed.  just curious.  mine tells me a strong primary low north of KY is bad but maybe in this type scenario it can work.  I feel like we saw this recently like early last week/previous week or so when this Friday looked to be a more wintry event.  it evolved obviously.  isn't this the same really?  

An all coastal storm scenario looks pretty unlikely at this moment, but I'd also lean against a pure cutter.  So I think some sort of redeveloper scenario like the Op runs today portray makes the most sense.  But there's a pretty huge range of options in there in terms of sensible outcomes for us. Good news is that I think we get *some* snow in most of those redeveloper scenarios, but that could range from a dusting-2" with the arctic front to a MECS/HECS.  

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

This is a Miller B setup as it stands today. They usually don't work out for us, do they?

This isn't really a Miller B setup in a classic sense. The northern stream "shortwave" on the gfs/euro is actually then tropospheric polar vortex. Lol. And it drops down far west then takes a diagonal path SE with a neg tilted trough stretching like a rubber band. Lol. For us to get a Miller B out of it we would need the TPV to approach from the SW. Or at least from due west at or south of our latitude. Problem is, I can't think of a single time that's come close to happening. Lol 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

An all coastal storm scenario looks pretty unlikely at this moment, but I'd also lean against a pure cutter.  So I think some sort of redeveloper scenario like the Op runs today portray makes the most sense.  But there's a pretty huge range of options in there in terms of sensible outcomes for us. Good news is that I think we get *some* snow in most of those redeveloper scenarios, but that could range from a dusting-2" with the arctic front to a MECS/HECS.  

I still think the 26-28th window should present a chance for a coastal storm with cold established. 12z EPS strongly hinting, as have previous runs of the GEFS.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I still think the 26-28th window should present a chance for a coastal storm with cold established. 12z EPS strongly hinting, as have previous runs of the GEFS.

Hopefully if the 23rd fails, by the time we know that we'll be already busy tracking something for after the holiday 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I still think the 26-28th window should present a chance for a coastal storm with cold established. 12z EPS strongly hinting, as have previous runs of the GEFS.

Agree. To me, for our purposes, next week's weird event IS the pattern change we've been waiting for. I guessed mid month back in Nov and that was too soon. I like everything I see coming up. I'd be happy with any frozen events this month. Especially ones that end below freezing. Lol. 

[CAPE]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Hopefully if the 23rd fails, by the time we know that we'll be already busy tracking something for after the holiday 

The 23rd should be interesting, even if it doesn't produce much snow. Not sure we won't see some significant changes from what's currently being depicted. Kinda hoping to see something a bit unusual, with at least a little shot of snow.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS

[Maestrobjwa]

25 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I still think the 26-28th window should present a chance for a coastal storm with cold established. 12z EPS strongly hinting, as have previous runs of the GEFS.

Oho really...Boxing Day: What could possibly go wrong? Lol

[Weather Will]

I don’t understand why we can’t have it snow on the 23rd as well as the 26th… big hits on the individual WB 12Z EPS members and a nice mean.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Weather Will said:

I don’t understand why we can’t have it snow on the 23 as well as the 26th…

Because we're the Mid-Atlantic and we need multiple dice rolls, lol

[CAPE]

Just now, Weather Will said:

I don’t understand why we can’t have it snow on the 23rd as well as the 26th…

Who said we can't? 

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Who said we can't? 

I was being sarcastic….

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I don’t understand why we can’t have it snow on the 23rd as well as the 26th… big hits on the individual WB 12Z EPS members and a nice mean.

The Mean looks almost exactly like the GEFS at 6z. 12z not so much.

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Who said we can't? 

We've had plenty of multi-event heaters over the years. Most decent winters require at least one. We're streaky AF here lol 

Eta: all time heater award has to go to Feb 14th thru March 31st.  What a blast that was 

[Snowmadness]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I don’t understand why we can’t have it snow on the 23rd as well as the 26th… big hits on the individual WB 12Z members.

Will take E 47! 

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, Snowmadness said:

Will take E 47! 

There's actually a few bombs in there. E20 looks amazing. I wouldn't toss E40 out of bed with me.

And then there are a few more solid hits after that.

[Terpeast]

15 minutes ago, Snowmadness said:

Will take E 47! 

E47 has a nice little bulls eye right over my house. 

It is for this reason we can safely discard it. 

[midatlanticweather]

CPC also says more things keep pointing favorably! Best set of maps I have seen in very long time:

 

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

CPC also says more things keep pointing favorably! Best set of maps I have seen in very long time:

 

Like I said, that looks like a miller B signature. 

I'm leaning strongly towards that vs. a cutter for 12/23.

Watch out NYC-BOS corridor...

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

51 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We've had plenty of multi-event heaters over the years. Most decent winters require at least one. We're streaky AF here lol 

Eta: all time heater award has to go to Feb 14th thru March 31st.  What a blast that was 

That was an amazing period ushered in by that nifty squall along the Arctic front on Feb. 14!

But there was another period that was pretty decent, too...Jan. 30-Feb. 10, 2010? 

(ETA:  I joke a bit of course, because everyone knows about 2009-10.  But in all seriousness you're right about us being streaky AF here, or so it seems.  Even that record-breaking 2009-10 winter was streaky:  amazing December that started early and then the HECS...followed by kind of "meh" late December through much of January...followed by that amazing 12 days from end of January into mid-February.)