December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[CAPE]

Latest GEFSX continues the cold pattern into Jan.

[Terpeast]

Just now, CAPE said:

Latest GEFSX continues the cold pattern into Jan.

With that pna ridge, I’m liking our chances despite the op models not showing much of anything. 

We don’t have that western ridge in place right now. Just get it there, and let the rest take care of itself.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

With that pna ridge, I’m liking our chances despite the op models not showing much of anything. 

We don’t have that western ridge in place right now. Just get it there, and let the rest take care of itself.

As long as we don't go dry. A bit of a split flow will help in a Nina.

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

As long as we don't go dry. A bit of a split flow will help in a Nina.

Trough near Hawaii and that Aleutian low are very Nino-like and should keep things pretty active. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Many pro LR forecasters had January shaping up like this...a big 'thaw' period. It is probably going to be a backloaded season as we are accustomed to in a Nina and we arr going to have to be patient. Like you said tho...it's way out there but the great looks are going to shift around at some point. The Dec -AO/-NAO base is a good signal tho for returning periodically so even if it happens as you noted,  I doubt we are done with the +heights at HL for the year.

My point was with that pacific look it shouldn’t be that warm in the east. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

GFS still has the hellacious arctic front, temps dropping to the teens in the afternoon with some fresh light snow on the ground next Friday.  Would be cool if it happened. 

[BristowWx]

16 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

GFS still has the hellacious arctic front, temps dropping to the teens in the afternoon with some fresh light snow on the ground next Friday.  Would be cool if it happened. 

CMC digs a h5 little farther SE and turns out a little better at the surface.  Now I see what has to happen for the 23rd to even have a prayer to be something beyond a snow squall...needs to dig to Southwest GA

[Kevin Reilly]

19 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

GFS still has the hellacious arctic front, temps dropping to the teens in the afternoon with some fresh light snow on the ground next Friday.  Would be cool if it happened. 

snow globe effect very fast northern Jet under the block and the southern jet screaming out to sea not to connect with a phased storm which can change.  We need at least 4 days to work on that solution. 

[MN Transplant]

Strictly from a White Christmas standpoint, there is a little vort that slides just to our south on the 24th.  Something like that on the heels of the Arctic front could do it.

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Strictly from a White Christmas standpoint, there is a little vort that slides just to our south on the 24th.  Something like that on the heels of the Arctic front could do it.

That's what happened in 83 after the artic blast came thru. No storms but several light snow events moved thru with an inch or 2 here and there iirc. That was a long time ago but I remember that holiday specifically for the cold and bit of snow that came with it. 

[Cobalt]

On 10/27/2022 at 4:18 PM, Cobalt said:

That look on the EPS reminds me a lot of November 2017. Not identical, but overtop there are definitely similarities to the start of the month in both figures. 

 

While the month wasn't 1:1 at h500, November 2017 did have an extreme -EPO event, much like what we had during the middle of last month. That year also featured a prolific Arctic outbreak during the last week of December into early January. 

The main difference between these two timeframes is that December 2017 was more positive in the AO and NAO domains than what we're dealing with now. Not hostile, but it was definitely a pacific driven pattern.

That timeframe had some impressive cold. According to @RodneyS, December 26th through January 8th 2018 averaged 22.5 degrees at DCA, which was the coldest such 2 week stretch since January 10-23,  1994. That arctic outbreak concluded with a major storm for our subforum's Eastern region on January 4th, but wintry threats continued through mid January. We will see if additional Greenland/Arctic blocking allows for this stretch to be snowier than that was for our general subforum, although I'm unsure if this timeframe will rival that one in terms of temperature departures.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Strictly from a White Christmas standpoint, there is a little vort that slides just to our south on the 24th.  Something like that on the heels of the Arctic front could do it.

This is classic @psuhoffman how we win. As @WxUSAF said, 3" - 6" in December is climo and then some.

[LP08]

Small change on the Euro from yesterday 

[Ji]

Small change on the Euro from yesterday 

Still mostly rain lol

[LP08]

Just now, Ji said:

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Small change on the Euro from yesterday 

Still mostly rain lol

Mostly but not all!

[MN Transplant]

Euro 49 at 1am to 17 at 1pm on the 23rd.  Now that would be fun to see.

[Amped]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Euro 49 at 1am to 17 at 1pm on the 23rd.  Now that would be fun to see.

November 1950

[midatlanticweather]

Oh wow! Some very close calls for Christmas. Few better adjustments and Bing Crosby may start singing! If we get a big snow Amwx is "gonna find the jolliest bunch of a$$holes this side of the nuthouse."

My banter shall end. 
 
 

 

[BristowWx]

another 100miles for h5 to dig  south-south west...and we would like it...this run spawns low around va capes...just too  far east from what I can see

[mattie g]

3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Euro 49 at 1am to 17 at 1pm on the 23rd.  Now that would be fun to see.

Only if precip arrives after the temp drops.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO at range, but if this phases a little quicker….

[MN Transplant]

9 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Only if precip arrives after the temp drops.

So, you are going with the "never" scenario.  Bold.

[mattie g]

We need that phase to happen and kill off the primary that gets up into f'ing Wisconsin. Wouldn't hurt for that west Coast ridge to get farther east.

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

So, you are going with the "never" scenario.  Bold.

What I say means nothing, so might as well go for it!

[BristowWx]

looking at comparative  maps from Euro things have come a long way in 3 runs with mean sea level pressure.  still 9 days out. EPS will be  interesting

[WinterWxLuvr]

Cold chasing precip is money here.

[Ji]

@psuhoffmanim starting to think the most important thing we need is an active Southern Jet. Seems like -NAO/-AO/PNA whatever never really matters anymore cause we can get a snowstorm from the Gulf like ever

[WxUSAF]

Massive improvements on the euro vs last 2 runs.  Couple more similar shifts and we're in business 

[aldie 22]

So it won't be 10 degrees in San Diego now? Seems like just yesterday it was supposed to be

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

So it won't be 10 degrees in San Diego now? Seems like just yesterday it was supposed to be

That single person who lives in San Diego and likes winter will be disappointed

[Scraff]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

So it won't be 10 degrees in San Diego now? Seems like just yesterday it was supposed to be

Was hoping to see some ice surfing on the news. Meh. Stupid 70 degrees and sunny days. That place has horrible weather. Kinda of like here…