December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[Kevin Reilly]

19 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

GFS still has the hellacious arctic front, temps dropping to the teens in the afternoon with some fresh light snow on the ground next Friday.  Would be cool if it happened. 

snow globe effect very fast northern Jet under the block and the southern jet screaming out to sea not to connect with a phased storm which can change.  We need at least 4 days to work on that solution. 

[MN Transplant]

Strictly from a White Christmas standpoint, there is a little vort that slides just to our south on the 24th.  Something like that on the heels of the Arctic front could do it.

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Strictly from a White Christmas standpoint, there is a little vort that slides just to our south on the 24th.  Something like that on the heels of the Arctic front could do it.

That's what happened in 83 after the artic blast came thru. No storms but several light snow events moved thru with an inch or 2 here and there iirc. That was a long time ago but I remember that holiday specifically for the cold and bit of snow that came with it. 

[Cobalt]

On 10/27/2022 at 4:18 PM, Cobalt said:

That look on the EPS reminds me a lot of November 2017. Not identical, but overtop there are definitely similarities to the start of the month in both figures. 

 

While the month wasn't 1:1 at h500, November 2017 did have an extreme -EPO event, much like what we had during the middle of last month. That year also featured a prolific Arctic outbreak during the last week of December into early January. 

The main difference between these two timeframes is that December 2017 was more positive in the AO and NAO domains than what we're dealing with now. Not hostile, but it was definitely a pacific driven pattern.

That timeframe had some impressive cold. According to @RodneyS, December 26th through January 8th 2018 averaged 22.5 degrees at DCA, which was the coldest such 2 week stretch since January 10-23,  1994. That arctic outbreak concluded with a major storm for our subforum's Eastern region on January 4th, but wintry threats continued through mid January. We will see if additional Greenland/Arctic blocking allows for this stretch to be snowier than that was for our general subforum, although I'm unsure if this timeframe will rival that one in terms of temperature departures.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Strictly from a White Christmas standpoint, there is a little vort that slides just to our south on the 24th.  Something like that on the heels of the Arctic front could do it.

This is classic @psuhoffman how we win. As @WxUSAF said, 3" - 6" in December is climo and then some.

[LP08]

Small change on the Euro from yesterday 

[Ji]

Small change on the Euro from yesterday 

Still mostly rain lol

[LP08]

Just now, Ji said:

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Small change on the Euro from yesterday 

Still mostly rain lol

Mostly but not all!

[MN Transplant]

Euro 49 at 1am to 17 at 1pm on the 23rd.  Now that would be fun to see.

[Amped]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Euro 49 at 1am to 17 at 1pm on the 23rd.  Now that would be fun to see.

November 1950

[midatlanticweather]

Oh wow! Some very close calls for Christmas. Few better adjustments and Bing Crosby may start singing! If we get a big snow Amwx is "gonna find the jolliest bunch of a$$holes this side of the nuthouse."

My banter shall end. 
 
 

 

[BristowWx]

another 100miles for h5 to dig  south-south west...and we would like it...this run spawns low around va capes...just too  far east from what I can see

[mattie g]

3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Euro 49 at 1am to 17 at 1pm on the 23rd.  Now that would be fun to see.

Only if precip arrives after the temp drops.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO at range, but if this phases a little quicker….

[MN Transplant]

9 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Only if precip arrives after the temp drops.

So, you are going with the "never" scenario.  Bold.

[mattie g]

We need that phase to happen and kill off the primary that gets up into f'ing Wisconsin. Wouldn't hurt for that west Coast ridge to get farther east.

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

So, you are going with the "never" scenario.  Bold.

What I say means nothing, so might as well go for it!

[BristowWx]

looking at comparative  maps from Euro things have come a long way in 3 runs with mean sea level pressure.  still 9 days out. EPS will be  interesting

[WinterWxLuvr]

Cold chasing precip is money here.

[Ji]

@psuhoffmanim starting to think the most important thing we need is an active Southern Jet. Seems like -NAO/-AO/PNA whatever never really matters anymore cause we can get a snowstorm from the Gulf like ever

[WxUSAF]

Massive improvements on the euro vs last 2 runs.  Couple more similar shifts and we're in business 

[aldie 22]

So it won't be 10 degrees in San Diego now? Seems like just yesterday it was supposed to be

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

So it won't be 10 degrees in San Diego now? Seems like just yesterday it was supposed to be

That single person who lives in San Diego and likes winter will be disappointed

[Scraff]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

So it won't be 10 degrees in San Diego now? Seems like just yesterday it was supposed to be

Was hoping to see some ice surfing on the news. Meh. Stupid 70 degrees and sunny days. That place has horrible weather. Kinda of like here…

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS

[Paleocene]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS

 

 

I don't have the hi-res maps, but it seems like cold air should be in place somewhat before that low pops off the coast.

 

[Steve25]

The thing I'm not understanding about the "cold chasing precip never works" people is that next week there's a semblance of cold air already around BEFORE the potential storm takes shape next week. Obviously if the low forms right over us or to the west, it doesn't really matter what the temperatures are coming in, at least in terms of pure snow. Just from what I can see, it seems like this is almost entirely about where the main low pressure takes over vs not having enough cold air in place to make it work. 

Correct me if I'm wrong. Many much more intelligent folks in here. 

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

The thing I'm not understanding about the "cold chasing precip never works" people is that next week there's a semblance of cold air already around BEFORE the potential storm takes shape next week. Obviously if the low forms right over us or to the west, it doesn't really matter what the temperatures are coming in, at least in terms of pure snow. Just from what I can see, it seems like this is almost entirely about where the main low pressure takes over vs not having enough cold air in place to make it work. 

Correct me if I'm wrong. Many much more intelligent folks in here. 

You're correct.  If this sort of redeveloper scenario ends up happening, it all depends on where the energy transfer occurs and how strong the Lakes low will be as that's happening.  If you look closely, GGEM and Euro have a little snow from the coastal at the start today, then quick change to rain, then snow with the arctic front.  Very complicated and lots of subtle details.

For now, we want the strong shortwave to enter the Plains farther east and dig farther south.  

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

You're correct.  If this sort of redeveloper scenario ends up happening, it all depends on where the energy transfer occurs and how strong the Lakes low will be as that's happening.  If you look closely, GGEM and Euro have a little snow from the coastal at the start today, then quick change to rain, then snow with the arctic front.  Very complicated and lots of subtle details.

For now, we want the strong shortwave to enter the Plains farther east and dig farther south.  

what does your gut tell you where this one is headed.  just curious.  mine tells me a strong primary low north of KY is bad but maybe in this type scenario it can work.  I feel like we saw this recently like early last week/previous week or so when this Friday looked to be a more wintry event.  it evolved obviously.  isn't this the same really?  

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

You're correct.  If this sort of redeveloper scenario ends up happening, it all depends on where the energy transfer occurs and how strong the Lakes low will be as that's happening.  If you look closely, GGEM and Euro have a little snow from the coastal at the start today, then quick change to rain, then snow with the arctic front.  Very complicated and lots of subtle details.

For now, we want the strong shortwave to enter the Plains farther east and dig farther south.  

Around the TN valley would be nice  Now, apologies if I asked before, but...the Commutagedon storm (late Jan 2011)...we went from rain to snow (in fact that's the last time I remember that order happening, lol). How did that work again?

[aldie 22]

For now i'm thrilled to see that an event can produce over an inch of liquid....they all won't hit but if one does....weeeeeeee!!!!