December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[nj2va]

The euro is not the king it once was. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, nj2va said:

The euro is not the king it once was. 

The ops is also not very reliable in a Nina pattern in that range. Not saying its wrong but I would go with the eps over the ops at this point tbh. Total outlier attm.

[nj2va]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

The ops is also not very reliable in a Nina pattern in that range. Not saying its wrong but I would go with the eps over the ops at this point tbh. Total outlier attm.

Yeah, OPs at range are lol. People shouldn’t put faith in any exact depiction on the OPs that far out whether good or bad. Stick to the ensembles. 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yeah, OPs at range are lol. People shouldn’t put faith in any exact depiction on the OPs that far out whether good or bad. Stick to the ensembles. 

GEPS...kinda the same thing?

[psuhoffman]

It’s way out there so not worth panicking yet…but worth noting since it’s on all 3 ensembles day 14-16.  The pac progresses to a favorable configuration with an Aleutian low and pna ridge. But the warmth from the pacific overwhelms the whole pattern and even with a trough in the east it’s game over.  In 48 hours once the cross polar flow cuts off the pacific air brought in by the pna ridge eradicates all the cold from N America.  Hopefully it’s wrong.  If it’s correct that might be the most troubling thing I’ve ever seen. If an Aleutian low/+pna/-NAO doesn’t work because pacific warmth overwhelms the pattern around New Years…I dunno what were even doing anymore. I’ve said this over and over but 90% of our snowstorms didn’t come from cross polar flow arctic patterns.  Most -epo patterns that bring down the arctic hammer dump the cold too far west. The full latitude pna epo ridge that dumps cold directly into the east is extremely rare but also can lead to just a cold dry period.  90% of our snow came from a combo of favorable pna and high lat blocking to facilitate a favorable storm track in a moderate temperature regime that used domestic typical winter cold and the snow fell with temps very close to freezing on days that likely would have been a high of 40-45 had it been sunny instead of snowing.  If we need some perfect pattern that somehow incorporates cross polar flow AND blocking we’re just fooked most of the time. That’s a super rare thing that isn’t going to happen much.  We have to be able to snow from a good storm track with a typical domestic cold thermal regime or we’ve lost most of the ways we used to snow. 
 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s way out there so not worth panicking yet…but worth noting since it’s on all 3 ensembles day 14-16.  The pac progresses to a favorable configuration with an Aleutian low and pna ridge. But the warmth from the pacific overwhelms the whole pattern and even with a trough in the east it’s game over.  In 48 hours once the cross polar flow cuts off the pacific air brought in by the pna ridge eradicates all the cold from N America.  Hopefully it’s wrong.  If it’s correct that might be the most troubling thing I’ve ever seen. If an Aleutian low/+pna/-NAO doesn’t work because pacific warmth overwhelms the pattern around New Years…I dunno what were even doing anymore. I’ve said this over and over but 90% of our snowstorms didn’t come from cross polar flow arctic patterns.  Most -epo patterns that bring down the arctic hammer dump the cold too far west. The full latitude pna epo ridge that dumps cold directly into the east is extremely rare but also can lead to just a cold dry period.  90% of our snow came from a combo of favorable pna and high lat blocking to facilitate a favorable storm track in a moderate temperature regime that used domestic typical winter cold and the snow fell with temps very close to freezing on days that likely would have been a high of 40-45 had it been sunny instead of snowing.  If we need some perfect pattern that somehow incorporates cross polar flow AND blocking we’re just fooked most of the time. That’s a super rare thing that isn’t going to happen much.  We have to be able to snow from a good storm track with a typical domestic cold thermal regime or we’ve lost most of the ways we used to snow. 
 

 

Sounding the doom alarm at 3 am? Man you about to have people wake up depressed, lolol But yeah I hear ya...not what anybody wants to hear about where we're at. I'd love for you (and these runs) to be wrong. Otherwise you're right--no point in tracking anymore, really. Now I could go gloom and doom too, but...you have more standing to do that than I, lol

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s way out there so not worth panicking yet…but worth noting since it’s on all 3 ensembles day 14-16.  The pac progresses to a favorable configuration with an Aleutian low and pna ridge. But the warmth from the pacific overwhelms the whole pattern and even with a trough in the east it’s game over.  In 48 hours once the cross polar flow cuts off the pacific air brought in by the pna ridge eradicates all the cold from N America.  Hopefully it’s wrong.  If it’s correct that might be the most troubling thing I’ve ever seen. If an Aleutian low/+pna/-NAO doesn’t work because pacific warmth overwhelms the pattern around New Years…I dunno what were even doing anymore. I’ve said this over and over but 90% of our snowstorms didn’t come from cross polar flow arctic patterns.  Most -epo patterns that bring down the arctic hammer dump the cold too far west. The full latitude pna epo ridge that dumps cold directly into the east is extremely rare but also can lead to just a cold dry period.  90% of our snow came from a combo of favorable pna and high lat blocking to facilitate a favorable storm track in a moderate temperature regime that used domestic typical winter cold and the snow fell with temps very close to freezing on days that likely would have been a high of 40-45 had it been sunny instead of snowing.  If we need some perfect pattern that somehow incorporates cross polar flow AND blocking we’re just fooked most of the time. That’s a super rare thing that isn’t going to happen much.  We have to be able to snow from a good storm track with a typical domestic cold thermal regime or we’ve lost most of the ways we used to snow. 
 

 

That was both depressing and informative at the same time.  If we really need perfection moving forward this hobby will become futile.  It was hard enough when things were better. 

[Weather Will]

JB is calling for a warm January… looking at the ensemble means for GEFS, Extended., and EURO our best chance is the 7 day period ending around the 28th….we will know soon enough.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

JB is calling for a warm January… looking at the ensemble means for GEFS, Extended., and EURO our best chance is the 7 day period ending around the 28th….we will know soon enough.

He also predicted a snowy December and that I would have above normal snow for like the 14th time in the last 15 years. 

[CAPE]

The biggest difference I see between the Euro and GFS ens in the upper level pattern evolution into next week is wrt the TPV that gets pinched off/displaced southward under the anticyclonic wave break as the EPO ridge amplifies and bridges with the upper ridge in the NAO space. GEFS involves that energy in 2 pieces(troughs) while the EPS dumps most of it in the 'trailing' trough that then digs further westward.

For late next week, the GEFS ends up with this look, which implies coastal low development in a more favorable location- right along the coast or slightly offshore and further south.

The EPS ends up with this look, which is more conducive for inland/north low pressure development.

[Weather Will]

My bar is set very low.  I expect a strong cold front to go through making for a cold Christmas weekend.  If I get snow, that would be a bonus….but this was the most hyped December in years and it will be up to the last week or so of the month to deliver….(and it was not just JB, most hyped the last 2 weeks of the month.)

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s way out there so not worth panicking yet…but worth noting since it’s on all 3 ensembles day 14-16.  The pac progresses to a favorable configuration with an Aleutian low and pna ridge. But the warmth from the pacific overwhelms the whole pattern and even with a trough in the east it’s game over.  In 48 hours once the cross polar flow cuts off the pacific air brought in by the pna ridge eradicates all the cold from N America.  Hopefully it’s wrong.  If it’s correct that might be the most troubling thing I’ve ever seen. If an Aleutian low/+pna/-NAO doesn’t work because pacific warmth overwhelms the pattern around New Years…I dunno what were even doing anymore. I’ve said this over and over but 90% of our snowstorms didn’t come from cross polar flow arctic patterns.  Most -epo patterns that bring down the arctic hammer dump the cold too far west. The full latitude pna epo ridge that dumps cold directly into the east is extremely rare but also can lead to just a cold dry period.  90% of our snow came from a combo of favorable pna and high lat blocking to facilitate a favorable storm track in a moderate temperature regime that used domestic typical winter cold and the snow fell with temps very close to freezing on days that likely would have been a high of 40-45 had it been sunny instead of snowing.  If we need some perfect pattern that somehow incorporates cross polar flow AND blocking we’re just fooked most of the time. That’s a super rare thing that isn’t going to happen much.  We have to be able to snow from a good storm track with a typical domestic cold thermal regime or we’ve lost most of the ways we used to snow. 
 

 

The way things look we may get a good test next winter with a possible moderate CP based Nino, which typically has a favorable HL pattern and storm track with active STJ, but not very cold.  Historically our bread and butter for above avg snow.

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 hours ago, nj2va said:

Yeah, OPs at range are lol. People shouldn’t put faith in any exact depiction on the OPs that far out whether good or bad. Stick to the ensembles. 

Same goes with the CMC that had a bomb yesterday. A possibility but not a likelihoof. Referring to ops past 6 days or so. Within 5 days is a decent frame to start putting more weight in the global ops as a very general rule of thumb.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s way out there so not worth panicking yet…but worth noting since it’s on all 3 ensembles day 14-16.  The pac progresses to a favorable configuration with an Aleutian low and pna ridge. But the warmth from the pacific overwhelms the whole pattern and even with a trough in the east it’s game over.  In 48 hours once the cross polar flow cuts off the pacific air brought in by the pna ridge eradicates all the cold from N America.  Hopefully it’s wrong.  If it’s correct that might be the most troubling thing I’ve ever seen. If an Aleutian low/+pna/-NAO doesn’t work because pacific warmth overwhelms the pattern around New Years…I dunno what were even doing anymore. I’ve said this over and over but 90% of our snowstorms didn’t come from cross polar flow arctic patterns.  Most -epo patterns that bring down the arctic hammer dump the cold too far west. The full latitude pna epo ridge that dumps cold directly into the east is extremely rare but also can lead to just a cold dry period.  90% of our snow came from a combo of favorable pna and high lat blocking to facilitate a favorable storm track in a moderate temperature regime that used domestic typical winter cold and the snow fell with temps very close to freezing on days that likely would have been a high of 40-45 had it been sunny instead of snowing.  If we need some perfect pattern that somehow incorporates cross polar flow AND blocking we’re just fooked most of the time. That’s a super rare thing that isn’t going to happen much.  We have to be able to snow from a good storm track with a typical domestic cold thermal regime or we’ve lost most of the ways we used to snow. 
 

 

Many pro LR forecasters had January shaping up like this...a big 'thaw' period. It is probably going to be a backloaded season as we are accustomed to in a Nina and we arr going to have to be patient. Like you said tho...it's way out there but the great looks are going to shift around at some point. The Dec -AO/-NAO base is a good signal tho for returning periodically so even if it happens as you noted,  I doubt we are done with the +heights at HL for the year.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

The biggest difference I see between the Euro and GFS ens in the upper level pattern evolution into next week is wrt the TPV that gets pinched off/displaced southward under the anticyclonic wave break as the EPO ridge amplifies and bridges with the upper ridge in the NAO space. GEFS involves that energy in 2 pieces(troughs) while the EPS dumps most of it in the 'trailing' trough that then digs further westward.

For late next week, the GEFS ends up with this look, which implies coastal low development in a more favorable location- right along the coast or slightly offshore and further south.

The EPS ends up with this look, which is more conducive for inland/north low pressure development.

I only enjoy my avocados smashed and spread on toast, certainly not on a prog centered over Indiana. Gimme a little blueberry sliding underneath us and Im content

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS for late next week.  Still in the game.

[frd]

27 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS for late next week.  Still in the game.

The outcome for the system on the 23 rd might be similiar to what is going to happen tomorrow into Friday.  Dr No probably has the right idea as @CAPE  reviewed the differences between GEFS and the EPS regarding the system on the 23 rd.  Difficult to think we fail moving forward with a - 4.0 AO and block north of Alaska  There is generally a lag from 5 to 10 days after these indices peak negative, but I am not seeing a significant snowfall mean acrosss our area at this time.   

[CAPE]

5 day mean ending on the 27th. Pretty decent given we have something trackable in that window.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

The outcome for the system on the 23 rd might be similiar to what is going to happen tomorrow into Friday.  Dr No probably has the right idea as @CAPE  reviewed the differences between GEFS and the EPS regarding the system on the 23 rd.  Difficult to think we fail moving forward with a - 4.0 AO and block north of Alaska  There is generally a lag from 5 to 10 days after these indices peak negative, but I am not seeing a significant snowfall mean acrosss our area at this time.   

Even if the EPS is more correct we can still get a good outcome. Would be a more convoluted setup, but the cold coming in looks legit. Worst case is we ridge and warm some out in front, get an inland track with rain, then cold and dry behind. That is always a default fail mode for us lol.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

5 day mean ending on the 27th. Pretty decent given we have something trackable in that window.

Definitley a solid look for an ens mean and only seems to have been getting stronger with the signal. 22nd-27th seems like a good window for something. LFG!

[CAPE]

Looking beyond next week there would appear to be another storm chance around the 27th on the GEFS. The cold should be entrenched at this point with increased chances for a more favorable track. Might be a bit too offshore if anything. Pretty nice h5 look.

 

[BristowWx]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

He also predicted a snowy December and that I would have above normal snow for like the 14th time in the last 15 years. 

Yes I am calling for a warm/cold/cold/warm January...week one will warm up...week 2 and 3 quite cold...then week 4 will be cold but warming up toward Feb.  Either of us has an equal chance of being  right he just gets paid a lot.  I am a weenie who lives in the suburbs and watches the porch light for first flakes.

[Terpeast]

The 12/23 cutter? 

CMC phases and cuts, 06z GFS does not and southern sw goes OTS. 

All about timing. (And we get it wrong most of the time… but still have a chance of lucking into it. We just won’t see it until 3 days before)

[CAPE]

Latest GEFSX continues the cold pattern into Jan.

[Terpeast]

Just now, CAPE said:

Latest GEFSX continues the cold pattern into Jan.

With that pna ridge, I’m liking our chances despite the op models not showing much of anything. 

We don’t have that western ridge in place right now. Just get it there, and let the rest take care of itself.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

With that pna ridge, I’m liking our chances despite the op models not showing much of anything. 

We don’t have that western ridge in place right now. Just get it there, and let the rest take care of itself.

As long as we don't go dry. A bit of a split flow will help in a Nina.

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

As long as we don't go dry. A bit of a split flow will help in a Nina.

Trough near Hawaii and that Aleutian low are very Nino-like and should keep things pretty active. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Many pro LR forecasters had January shaping up like this...a big 'thaw' period. It is probably going to be a backloaded season as we are accustomed to in a Nina and we arr going to have to be patient. Like you said tho...it's way out there but the great looks are going to shift around at some point. The Dec -AO/-NAO base is a good signal tho for returning periodically so even if it happens as you noted,  I doubt we are done with the +heights at HL for the year.

My point was with that pacific look it shouldn’t be that warm in the east. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

GFS still has the hellacious arctic front, temps dropping to the teens in the afternoon with some fresh light snow on the ground next Friday.  Would be cool if it happened. 

[BristowWx]

16 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

GFS still has the hellacious arctic front, temps dropping to the teens in the afternoon with some fresh light snow on the ground next Friday.  Would be cool if it happened. 

CMC digs a h5 little farther SE and turns out a little better at the surface.  Now I see what has to happen for the 23rd to even have a prayer to be something beyond a snow squall...needs to dig to Southwest GA