December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

We have talked about that one a few times here. I was Living south of Westminster at that time. Only legit thundersnow I have experienced. Total whiteout, flash freeze with the heavy snow and sudden drop in temp. Rare event for sure. Only thing that came close for me was the Feb 2015 deal.

Not sure if it was the same system, but I remember an event in the 80s that was  a decent rain that preceded a cold front, but as the front came through it dropped a few inches of squall-ish snow. Temps plummeted and things froze over rock-solid. It was pretty cool because we were able to play ice hockey on the huge frozen puddle (like 50 yards x 50 yards) near the creek in the park around the corner from my house.

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

That's what it looked like to me.  I know, parsing details of a model some 10 days out, but still.  That's one hella dynamic system there and if it happens that way I could see a burst of heavy snow right as temps crash.  Not like a huge amount, but still.  In that Feb. 2014 event, I got about 2" in less than 2 hours as that Arctic front breezed through.  This looks more intense than that.

If something like that happened, probably nearly all of us would be pitching tent...so to speak!

I was kind of annoyed by all the excitement about that squall because I got like 0.5” if I was lucky! 

[CAPE]

43 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I said close the blinds if that ridge doesn’t shift E. 18z GEFS shifted it east. Let’s see if guidance continues to trend that way. Gotta hope we keep seeing that and maybe beefed up confluence, or the Eve-ranger storm will cut/Ohio valley runner. I know you know this, but dump too much energy out west the SE ridge will flex in this pattern: Regardless, serious strong signal for a major storm/front for 22-23rd period.


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There are always a range of possible outcomes for every pattern- some will be "good" even in those patterns that are less than ideal. This was the h5 pattern leading up to the big snowstorm for the lowlands of the MA early Jan last winter. Typical Nina Aleutian ridge, but displaced somewhat poleward, not the greatest trough position, with some SE ridge, and a transient/bootleg -NAO.

[Jersey Andrew]

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was the only good snow that winter in northern VA. My senior year at Oakton HS. It was in the mid 30s as the snow began then temps quickly fell to 33 then 32 as the intensity increased. Eventually towards the very end of the storm that evening temps dropped below freezing. I think the temp splits for the day were 37/29 at IAD and 39/31 at DCA. 

January ‘96 was the godfather of northern Virginia snowstorms. I was a senior at Flint Hill and had a competition at Woodson that Saturday afternoon. Snow started around 8pm. Lasting thru all day Sunday and measured 24 inches at the house. No school for almost two weeks because no Zoom teaching during the Internet dial up era. Followed ptravel and snonut forecasts on one of the early weather boards.

[Ralph Wiggum]

27 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Not sure if it was the same system, but I remember an event in the 80s that was  a decent rain that preceded a cold front, but as the front came through it dropped a few inches of squall-ish snow. Temps plummeted and things froze over rock-solid. It was pretty cool because we were able to play ice hockey on the huge frozen puddle (like 50 yards x 50 yards) near the creek in the park around the corner from my house.

I recall something like this up here in the nearby Philly burbs. Had to be mid 80s (83, 84 or 85?). I remember going to school at 7am pouring rain...cats and dogs stuff. Flash flooding, streams in roads. Remember it vividly. When we left school at 3:15pm everything was rock solid 3" ice in spots. Unreal stuff. Wish I could figure out exact date and see historic progs of that.

[Ji]

15 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

January ‘96 was the godfather of northern Virginia snowstorms. I was a senior at Flint Hill and had a competition at Woodson that Saturday afternoon. Snow started around 8pm. Lasting thru all day Sunday and measured 24 inches at the house. No school for almost two weeks because no Zoom teaching during the Internet dial up era. Followed ptravel and snonut forecasts on one of the early weather boards.

looking back now...we have had better storms that the blizzard of 96 but i think blizzard of 96 had the biggest impact in terms of life after the storm than other Hecs from what i can remember

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

I said close the blinds if that ridge doesn’t shift E. 18z GEFS shifted it east. Let’s see if guidance continues to trend that way. Gotta hope we keep seeing that and maybe beefed up confluence, or the Eve-ranger storm will cut/Ohio valley runner. I know you know this, but dump too much energy out west the SE ridge will flex in this pattern: Regardless, serious strong signal for a major storm/front for 22-23rd period.


.

You can admit it worried ya, lol (I think to some degree we all do it for a split second with a bad long range OP run, lol)

[osfan24]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

looking back now...we have had better storms that the blizzard of 96 but i think blizzard of 96 had the biggest impact in terms of life after the storm than other Hecs from what i can remember

No doubt. That was the storm that got me interested in storms. I was only 12 at the time so it was going to be my first huge snowstorm. The drifts were legit and it kinda changed snow removal in the Baltimore area. After that storm, major investments were made in bigger plow trucks to handle storms like that in the future. But I know 2016 has it beat. And possibly the first 2010 storm. It was probably pretty comparable to 2003.

[SnowGoose69]

14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I recall something like this up here in the nearby Philly burbs. Had to be mid 80s (83, 84 or 85?). I remember going to school at 7am pouring rain...cats and dogs stuff. Flash flooding, streams in roads. Remember it vividly. When we left school at 3:15pm everything was rock solid 3" ice in spots. Unreal stuff. Wish I could figure out exact date and see historic progs of that.

1/10-1/11/1984, 2/1-2/2/1985 and 1/26-1/27/86 all had that sort of situation unfold.

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, osfan24 said:

No doubt. That was the storm that got me interested in storms. I was only 12 at the time so it was going to be my first huge snowstorm. The drifts were legit and it kinda changed snow removal in the Baltimore area. After that storm, major investments were made in bigger plow trucks to handle storms like that in the future. But I know 2016 has it beat. And possibly the first 2010 storm. It was probably pretty comparable to 2003.

2003 was the first 2+ footer I fully remember (was only 5 for 96 and have scattered memories). Now THAT snow was both heavy AND wet...I remember my small 12 year-old frame falling in the snow and having to crawl over and grab onto something to pull myself up! Great memories

[stormtracker]

Listen. I told you people nothing will happen until I return on Friday.   Not only do I control this board, I control the weather.  I got you for Christmas. Buckle up. As a bonus, I’ll one post Ji. 

[cbmclean]

20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Listen. I told you people nothing will happen until I return on Friday.   Not only do I control this board, I control the weather.  I got you for Christmas. Buckle up. As a bonus, I’ll one post Ji. 

I did not realize your powers were so...powerful.

[mattie g]

45 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I recall something like this up here in the nearby Philly burbs. Had to be mid 80s (83, 84 or 85?). I remember going to school at 7am pouring rain...cats and dogs stuff. Flash flooding, streams in roads. Remember it vividly. When we left school at 3:15pm everything was rock solid 3" ice in spots. Unreal stuff. Wish I could figure out exact date and see historic progs of that.

Cool…this was in South Jersey and sounds really familiar. Drenching rain followed by a true flash freeze and a couple inches of snow on top. Wild stuff.

[Cobalt]

36 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

But I know 2016 has it beat. And possibly the first 2010 storm. It was probably pretty comparable to 2003.

I'm not sure if this was the case in 2003 or 1996, but the first Feb 2010 storm stands out to me because of how wet the snow was initially. I'd imagine it was less than 10:1 until things really got going during the overnight hours, and that set down the perfect base for snow to cling onto trees and poles. I recall several massive trees falling overnight, and we didn't have power until after the second storm. Never had either of those things happen in the 2016 storm as that was very powdery in nature.

[clskinsfan]

53 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

1/10-1/11/1984, 2/1-2/2/1985 and 1/26-1/27/86 all had that sort of situation unfold.

 

 

The 80's in general were really good as far as winter weather goes. A couple really bone chilling winters that decade as well. 

[beavis1729]

4 hours ago, Amped said:

And that would be a record if I'm not mistaken.

 

Yeah, and by a lot. Current record is 1064 mb on 12/24/1983.

[cbmclean]

23 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Yeah, and by a lot. Current record is 1064 mb on 12/24/1983.

I had thought that record was broken a few years ago in Mongolia.

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I had thought that record was broken a few years ago in Mongolia.

I believe they're referring to the US record. Now, if the GFS had been right about setting a new global record, it would've been with the 1101mb high over Greenland that was forecast about a week back by that model. Needless to say, I don't think that verified. 

[Amped]

GFS digging further east this run, it maybe close with the fantasy storm.

[tstate21]

9 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS digging further east this run, it maybe close with the fantasy storm.

Agreed. You could see improvement with the ridge setting up over Greenland in a much better spot around the 138h mark.  That WC ridge is a thing of beauty too.

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, tstate21 said:

Agreed. You could see improvement with the ridge setting up over Greenland in a much better spot around the 138h mark too.  That WC ridge is a thing of beauty too.

Right where we want it….good sign 

[WxUSAF]

0z GFS is not the 12z GGEM precisely, but it’s the upper end advisory/low end warning version. All snow, no taint. 

[Ji]

0z GFS is not the 12z GGEM precisely, but it’s the upper end advisory/low end warning version. All snow, no taint. 

They switched places. The gfs became the 12z ggem and the 00z ggem became the 12z gfs

[tstate21]

0z CMC drops the energy into the CONUS over WA state, which suppresses the WC ridge and leads to a cutter.  Need that energy to come in further east like the 00z GFS has it entering near MT/ND.  The 12z CMC, which showed our great solution, showed this energy dropping down into ND as well.  

[WxWatcher007]

6 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

That's what it looked like to me.  I know, parsing details of a model some 10 days out, but still.  That's one hella dynamic system there and if it happens that way I could see a burst of heavy snow right as temps crash.  Not like a huge amount, but still.  In that Feb. 2014 event, I got about 2" in less than 2 hours as that Arctic front breezed through.  This looks more intense than that.

If something like that happened, probably nearly all of us would be pitching tent...so to speak!

One of my favorite all time events

 

[Cobalt]

This is workable.

[beavis1729]

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I had thought that record was broken a few years ago in Mongolia.

I mean the Lower 48 record high pressure - 1064 mb in Miles City, MT on 12/24/1983.

[Heisy]

Let’s hope the euro is having issues dealing with the western energy/ridge, ugh…


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[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Let’s hope the euro is having issues dealing with the western energy/ridge, ugh…


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Doesn't that look kinda weird, though? It dumped teens into San Diego earlier...lol Not worth panicking about at this juncture...especially with the lack of support on the ensembles earlier (and I'm guessing tonight)

[Cobalt]

9 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Let’s hope the euro is having issues dealing with the western energy/ridge, ugh…


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Euro doesn't have the single digits all the way down to San Diego anymore so that's a start at least