December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[Interstate]

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Much more of a coastal-dominant lean on the 18z GEFS vs 12z

 

The CMC had it first. 

[psuhoffman]

@Maestrobjwa you asked for a specific example where something in the past might not work today.  This was one that kinda popped into my head. Feb 8 1997. 6.8” at IAD. A general 4-8” across the whole area. 
 

Somehow is snowed during this pattern…

A weak piece of energy cut across under the pseudo block in southern Canada and managed work out. 

But there was no real cold anywhere in the east south of New England. It was 41 the day before and 37 for a high that day at IAD and most of the snow fell at 32-33 degrees. 

This stuck out because it was one of the last examples of a snow from a feature that used to work a lot. A south central Canada block with an otherwise +AO/NAO.  There are quite a few examples of that look in the snowstorms I studied in the 1940s-1990s. Then they went extinct.  
 

We had a couple patterns like this more recently and we got a perfect track storm but temps ended up too warm. One was late January or early Feb 2020. Within that got awful winter we had a week with a Hudson Bay high and a system came along and off the coast. But the temps even in mid winter were just blah and without any thermal gradient to aid lift from WAA the system was just a weak POS that gave us some drizzle and scattered rain and mix showers along the NW fringe. A nothing burger that at the time stuck out to me as similar to ways we had salvaged a small to moderate snow in an otherwise bad season and mediocre pattern. But as I’ve said recently we just don’t seem to have any prayer in a bad pattern anymore. No way to luck into snow from some micro feature within the bad pattern. Lately unless the pattern is good we’re torching with 55 degree temps and no prayer of snow. Kinda doubt that pattern from 1997 supports snow anymore. 

[CAPE]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Imo what’s “winning” is complicated and depends. I think from a distance without knowing the synoptic details I would be happy with a 4” snow event as a general rule. But again, if 24 hours out were looking at a HECS and it falls apart to just 4” we all know none of us is feeling great from that. 
 

Then there is the macro v micro. In the micro I’ll be happy with a 4” snow on Dec 23.  But at the end of the winter if all I got for the whole season was say 17” (which is a bottom 10% winter here) because we had a couple great patterns and all I got out of them was a few minor snowfalls…it’s a fail for the season.  Getting a small snowfall is fine but at some point we need to cash in big and max out a good pattern if we want to have a good season.  
 

To make a baseball analogy…going into a good pattern like this is kinda like having the bases loaded with nobody out and you’re 4-5 hitters coming up. Let’s say they hit a sac fly and an infield single that gets in 2 runs. In the micro that’s fine. They did ok. Then your bottom of the lineup strikes out.  Later the heart of the lineup comes up with 2 on and again they manage to get one run in. In the micro fine. But at the end of the game when you lose 5-3 you look back on that and realize you needed a 3 run homerun or a base clearing double somewhere in there.   I’m fine with singles as long as once in a while we get that home run. Or at least a double!  

There was an arctic front in the 80s that dropped 7” in an hour some places in northeast MD with thunderstorms. So anything is possible. 

We have talked about that one a few times here. I was Living south of Westminster at that time. Only legit thundersnow I have experienced. Total whiteout, flash freeze with the heavy snow and sudden drop in temp. Rare event for sure. Only thing that came close for me was the Feb 2015 deal.

[osfan24]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Maestrobjwa you asked for a specific example where something in the past might not work today.  This was one that kinda popped into my head. Feb 8 1997. 6.8” at IAD. A general 4-8” across the whole area. 
 

Somehow is snowed during this pattern…

A weak piece of energy cut across under the pseudo block in southern Canada and managed work out. 
 

But there was no real cold anywhere in the east south of New England. It was 41 the day before and 37 for a high that day at IAD and most of the snow fell at 32-33 degrees. 

This stuck out because it was one of the last examples of a snow from a feature that used to work a lot. A south central Canada block with an otherwise +AO/NAO.  There are quite a few examples of that look in the snowstorms I studied in the 1940s-1990s. Then they went extinct.  
 

We had a couple patterns like this more recently and we got a perfect track storm but temps ended up too warm. One was late January or early Feb 2020. Within that got awful winter we had a week with a Hudson Bay high and a system came along and off the coast. But the temps even in mid winter were just blah and without any thermal gradient to aid lift from WAA the system was just a weak POS that gave us some drizzle and scattered rain and mix showers along the NW fringe. A nothing burger that at the time stuck out to me as similar to ways we had salvaged a small to moderate snow in an otherwise bad season and mediocre pattern. But as I’ve said recently we just don’t seem to have any prayer in a bad pattern anymore. No way to luck into snow from some micro feature within the bad pattern. Lately unless the pattern is good we’re torching with 55 degree temps and no prayer of snow. Kinda doubt that pattern from 1997 supports snow anymore. 

I think I remember that one. That was a nice, steady snow pretty much all day. Just light to moderate nonstop. I think I got close to 8 from that one if I have the right one in mind. I'm actually surprised it was quite that warm because it never really snowed hard and I clearly remember there being pretty snow-covered streets. Not necessarily highways, but the main roads in my town were definitely snow-covered.

[Heisy]

 Are we still closing the blinds?

I said close the blinds if that ridge doesn’t shift E. 18z GEFS shifted it east. Let’s see if guidance continues to trend that way. Gotta hope we keep seeing that and maybe beefed up confluence, or the Eve-ranger storm will cut/Ohio valley runner. I know you know this, but dump too much energy out west the SE ridge will flex in this pattern: Regardless, serious strong signal for a major storm/front for 22-23rd period.


.

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I think I remember that one. That was a nice, steady snow pretty much all day. Just light to moderate nonstop. I think I got close to 8 from that one if I have the right one in mind. I'm actually surprised it was quite that warm because it never really snowed hard and I clearly remember there being pretty snow-covered streets. Not necessarily highways, but the main roads in my town were definitely snow-covered.

It was the only good snow that winter in northern VA. My senior year at Oakton HS. It was in the mid 30s as the snow began then temps quickly fell to 33 then 32 as the intensity increased. Eventually towards the very end of the storm that evening temps dropped below freezing. I think the temp splits for the day were 37/29 at IAD and 39/31 at DCA. 

[gymengineer]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was the only good snow that winter in northern VA. My senior year at Oakton HS. It was in the mid 30s as the snow began then temps quickly fell to 33 then 32 as the intensity increased. Eventually towards the very end of the storm that evening temps dropped below freezing. I think the temp splits for the day were 37/29 at IAD and 39/31 at DCA. 

Yeah, it didn’t begin to stick on roads in suburban MoCo until the sun went down, by which point most of the precip was done. Kind of like 2/24/05 and 2/28/05 but even less road accumulations.

To your greater point of marginal not working out in our changed climate, I think another example would be February 1986 (the month, not just one event). I don’t think a repeat would result in 13” at DCA. 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

We have talked about that one a few times here. I was Living south of Westminster at that time. Only legit thundersnow I have experienced. Total whiteout, flash freeze with the heavy snow and sudden drop in temp. Rare event for sure. Only thing that came close for me was the Feb 2015 deal.

Not sure if it was the same system, but I remember an event in the 80s that was  a decent rain that preceded a cold front, but as the front came through it dropped a few inches of squall-ish snow. Temps plummeted and things froze over rock-solid. It was pretty cool because we were able to play ice hockey on the huge frozen puddle (like 50 yards x 50 yards) near the creek in the park around the corner from my house.

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

That's what it looked like to me.  I know, parsing details of a model some 10 days out, but still.  That's one hella dynamic system there and if it happens that way I could see a burst of heavy snow right as temps crash.  Not like a huge amount, but still.  In that Feb. 2014 event, I got about 2" in less than 2 hours as that Arctic front breezed through.  This looks more intense than that.

If something like that happened, probably nearly all of us would be pitching tent...so to speak!

I was kind of annoyed by all the excitement about that squall because I got like 0.5” if I was lucky! 

[CAPE]

43 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I said close the blinds if that ridge doesn’t shift E. 18z GEFS shifted it east. Let’s see if guidance continues to trend that way. Gotta hope we keep seeing that and maybe beefed up confluence, or the Eve-ranger storm will cut/Ohio valley runner. I know you know this, but dump too much energy out west the SE ridge will flex in this pattern: Regardless, serious strong signal for a major storm/front for 22-23rd period.


.

There are always a range of possible outcomes for every pattern- some will be "good" even in those patterns that are less than ideal. This was the h5 pattern leading up to the big snowstorm for the lowlands of the MA early Jan last winter. Typical Nina Aleutian ridge, but displaced somewhat poleward, not the greatest trough position, with some SE ridge, and a transient/bootleg -NAO.

[Jersey Andrew]

37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was the only good snow that winter in northern VA. My senior year at Oakton HS. It was in the mid 30s as the snow began then temps quickly fell to 33 then 32 as the intensity increased. Eventually towards the very end of the storm that evening temps dropped below freezing. I think the temp splits for the day were 37/29 at IAD and 39/31 at DCA. 

January ‘96 was the godfather of northern Virginia snowstorms. I was a senior at Flint Hill and had a competition at Woodson that Saturday afternoon. Snow started around 8pm. Lasting thru all day Sunday and measured 24 inches at the house. No school for almost two weeks because no Zoom teaching during the Internet dial up era. Followed ptravel and snonut forecasts on one of the early weather boards.

[Ralph Wiggum]

27 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Not sure if it was the same system, but I remember an event in the 80s that was  a decent rain that preceded a cold front, but as the front came through it dropped a few inches of squall-ish snow. Temps plummeted and things froze over rock-solid. It was pretty cool because we were able to play ice hockey on the huge frozen puddle (like 50 yards x 50 yards) near the creek in the park around the corner from my house.

I recall something like this up here in the nearby Philly burbs. Had to be mid 80s (83, 84 or 85?). I remember going to school at 7am pouring rain...cats and dogs stuff. Flash flooding, streams in roads. Remember it vividly. When we left school at 3:15pm everything was rock solid 3" ice in spots. Unreal stuff. Wish I could figure out exact date and see historic progs of that.

[Ji]

15 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

January ‘96 was the godfather of northern Virginia snowstorms. I was a senior at Flint Hill and had a competition at Woodson that Saturday afternoon. Snow started around 8pm. Lasting thru all day Sunday and measured 24 inches at the house. No school for almost two weeks because no Zoom teaching during the Internet dial up era. Followed ptravel and snonut forecasts on one of the early weather boards.

looking back now...we have had better storms that the blizzard of 96 but i think blizzard of 96 had the biggest impact in terms of life after the storm than other Hecs from what i can remember

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

I said close the blinds if that ridge doesn’t shift E. 18z GEFS shifted it east. Let’s see if guidance continues to trend that way. Gotta hope we keep seeing that and maybe beefed up confluence, or the Eve-ranger storm will cut/Ohio valley runner. I know you know this, but dump too much energy out west the SE ridge will flex in this pattern: Regardless, serious strong signal for a major storm/front for 22-23rd period.


.

You can admit it worried ya, lol (I think to some degree we all do it for a split second with a bad long range OP run, lol)

[osfan24]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

looking back now...we have had better storms that the blizzard of 96 but i think blizzard of 96 had the biggest impact in terms of life after the storm than other Hecs from what i can remember

No doubt. That was the storm that got me interested in storms. I was only 12 at the time so it was going to be my first huge snowstorm. The drifts were legit and it kinda changed snow removal in the Baltimore area. After that storm, major investments were made in bigger plow trucks to handle storms like that in the future. But I know 2016 has it beat. And possibly the first 2010 storm. It was probably pretty comparable to 2003.

[SnowGoose69]

14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I recall something like this up here in the nearby Philly burbs. Had to be mid 80s (83, 84 or 85?). I remember going to school at 7am pouring rain...cats and dogs stuff. Flash flooding, streams in roads. Remember it vividly. When we left school at 3:15pm everything was rock solid 3" ice in spots. Unreal stuff. Wish I could figure out exact date and see historic progs of that.

1/10-1/11/1984, 2/1-2/2/1985 and 1/26-1/27/86 all had that sort of situation unfold.

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, osfan24 said:

No doubt. That was the storm that got me interested in storms. I was only 12 at the time so it was going to be my first huge snowstorm. The drifts were legit and it kinda changed snow removal in the Baltimore area. After that storm, major investments were made in bigger plow trucks to handle storms like that in the future. But I know 2016 has it beat. And possibly the first 2010 storm. It was probably pretty comparable to 2003.

2003 was the first 2+ footer I fully remember (was only 5 for 96 and have scattered memories). Now THAT snow was both heavy AND wet...I remember my small 12 year-old frame falling in the snow and having to crawl over and grab onto something to pull myself up! Great memories

[stormtracker]

Listen. I told you people nothing will happen until I return on Friday.   Not only do I control this board, I control the weather.  I got you for Christmas. Buckle up. As a bonus, I’ll one post Ji. 

[cbmclean]

20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Listen. I told you people nothing will happen until I return on Friday.   Not only do I control this board, I control the weather.  I got you for Christmas. Buckle up. As a bonus, I’ll one post Ji. 

I did not realize your powers were so...powerful.

[mattie g]

45 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I recall something like this up here in the nearby Philly burbs. Had to be mid 80s (83, 84 or 85?). I remember going to school at 7am pouring rain...cats and dogs stuff. Flash flooding, streams in roads. Remember it vividly. When we left school at 3:15pm everything was rock solid 3" ice in spots. Unreal stuff. Wish I could figure out exact date and see historic progs of that.

Cool…this was in South Jersey and sounds really familiar. Drenching rain followed by a true flash freeze and a couple inches of snow on top. Wild stuff.

[Cobalt]

36 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

But I know 2016 has it beat. And possibly the first 2010 storm. It was probably pretty comparable to 2003.

I'm not sure if this was the case in 2003 or 1996, but the first Feb 2010 storm stands out to me because of how wet the snow was initially. I'd imagine it was less than 10:1 until things really got going during the overnight hours, and that set down the perfect base for snow to cling onto trees and poles. I recall several massive trees falling overnight, and we didn't have power until after the second storm. Never had either of those things happen in the 2016 storm as that was very powdery in nature.

[clskinsfan]

53 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

1/10-1/11/1984, 2/1-2/2/1985 and 1/26-1/27/86 all had that sort of situation unfold.

 

 

The 80's in general were really good as far as winter weather goes. A couple really bone chilling winters that decade as well. 

[beavis1729]

4 hours ago, Amped said:

And that would be a record if I'm not mistaken.

 

Yeah, and by a lot. Current record is 1064 mb on 12/24/1983.

[cbmclean]

23 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Yeah, and by a lot. Current record is 1064 mb on 12/24/1983.

I had thought that record was broken a few years ago in Mongolia.

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I had thought that record was broken a few years ago in Mongolia.

I believe they're referring to the US record. Now, if the GFS had been right about setting a new global record, it would've been with the 1101mb high over Greenland that was forecast about a week back by that model. Needless to say, I don't think that verified. 

[Amped]

GFS digging further east this run, it maybe close with the fantasy storm.

[tstate21]

9 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS digging further east this run, it maybe close with the fantasy storm.

Agreed. You could see improvement with the ridge setting up over Greenland in a much better spot around the 138h mark.  That WC ridge is a thing of beauty too.

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, tstate21 said:

Agreed. You could see improvement with the ridge setting up over Greenland in a much better spot around the 138h mark too.  That WC ridge is a thing of beauty too.

Right where we want it….good sign 

[WxUSAF]

0z GFS is not the 12z GGEM precisely, but it’s the upper end advisory/low end warning version. All snow, no taint. 

[Ji]

0z GFS is not the 12z GGEM precisely, but it’s the upper end advisory/low end warning version. All snow, no taint. 

They switched places. The gfs became the 12z ggem and the 00z ggem became the 12z gfs