December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Avocado cold front 

[CAPE]

Cold and dry behind it. Maybe a clipper incoming for NC. Hope someone doesn't engage in a meltdown.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Love me some avocado. On/with anything, anytime.

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Cold and dry behind it. Maybe a clipper incoming for NC. Hope someone doesn't engage in a meltdown.

can you imagine all the hours spent on this app this month for 1 inch of snow

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Cold and dry behind it. Maybe a clipper incoming for NC. Hope someone doesn't engage in a meltdown.

Someone engaging in a meltdown over an ops run 10+ days out?  Say it ain't so!  That person you infer probably has 2 letters in their name, involving the 9th and 10th letters of the alphabet? 

[Ji]

Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Someone engaging in a meltdown over an ops run 10+ days out?  Say it ain't so!  That person you infer probably has 2 letters in their name, involving the 9th and 10th letters of the alphabet? 

sorry---i dont see where i melted down. I posted a pic of the D10 euro and said Hi lol. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

sorry---i dont see where i melted down. I posted a pic of the D10 euro and said Hi lol. 

Well to be fair, those Europeans like keeping things too warm over in these parts! 

(ETA:  And I was referring to the current run of the GFS and to @CAPE's comment, not to the 12Z ops Euro that was posted before).

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Well to be fair, those Europeans like keeping things too warm over in these parts! 

well whats crazy is if things are going this well in an amazing pattern....imagine how things will turn when we hit the typical Nina +AO,+NAO, +EPO

[WinterWxLuvr]

^^^
Its over 

[Heisy]

Interesting here. Ridge position much farther E vs 12z




.

[osfan24]

Its one OP run of one model and the arctic front would be cool, but I will say that I'll be a bit disappointed if this hyped period doesn't lead to something substantial before Christmas. Doesn't need to be a HECS. I know December 2009 doesn't happen often, but when we have a nice pattern to set up for snow right before or, even better, on Christmas, it would be really nice to cash in.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Ji said:

well whats crazy is if things are going this well in an amazing pattern....imagine how things will turn when we hit the typical Nina +AO,+NAO, +EPO

I won't worry about whatever "typical Nina" indices may or may not occur.  It's now December 13, we are looking at some unreal cold (compared to much of the past decade of Decembers!), and quite possibly some snow that's more than a dusting.  If we urp up a hairball and don't get anything other than chapped skin from cold and dry, will I be disappointed?  Yeah, of course, as will everyone here!  I personally don't think that will occur (and I don't have a cat, but people in my family do, and an urped up hairball is disgusting!).  But all the same...we have Jan-Feb-Mar left after this and I don't see us getting only diddly squat that whole time.  Last year, we had the one early January event that mostly affected DC southward, and a nifty final event in mid-March.  But last February sucked as did December.  So there's that.

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Interesting here. Ridge position much farther E vs 12z




.

That’s probably not good .  But we could do a lot worse than that look

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Interesting here. Ridge position much farther E vs 12z




.

And an interesting broad, sort of squashed, trough underneath the block and downstream of that ridge.  Whether that's necessarily good, I'm not sure, but I like that look.

[Scraff]

Quickly scrolls thru happy hour runs. Craving avocado toast and a beer. Be right back. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman, maybe a lot again comes back to what people mean for “cash in.” I know some are HECS or bust. I’m not and maybe that’s my befuddlement. I’ve said a few times that something like 3” for DCA and ~6” for IAD and BWI would be wins in my book for December. That’s like 200% of normal! And if that comes via a front end thump that eventually mixes or changes over and then is followed by arctic air…bring it on I say.

Imo what’s “winning” is complicated and depends. I think from a distance without knowing the synoptic details I would be happy with a 4” snow event as a general rule. But again, if 24 hours out were looking at a HECS and it falls apart to just 4” we all know none of us is feeling great from that. 
 

Then there is the macro v micro. In the micro I’ll be happy with a 4” snow on Dec 23.  But at the end of the winter if all I got for the whole season was say 17” (which is a bottom 10% winter here) because we had a couple great patterns and all I got out of them was a few minor snowfalls…it’s a fail for the season.  Getting a small snowfall is fine but at some point we need to cash in big and max out a good pattern if we want to have a good season.  
 

To make a baseball analogy…going into a good pattern like this is kinda like having the bases loaded with nobody out and you’re 4-5 hitters coming up. Let’s say they hit a sac fly and an infield single that gets in 2 runs. In the micro that’s fine. They did ok. Then your bottom of the lineup strikes out.  Later the heart of the lineup comes up with 2 on and again they manage to get one run in. In the micro fine. But at the end of the game when you lose 5-3 you look back on that and realize you needed a 3 run homerun or a base clearing double somewhere in there.   I’m fine with singles as long as once in a while we get that home run. Or at least a double!  

33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That event had an unexpected mesoscale low form along the front which produced that boom in snow totals. I think what the gfs just spit out would be way more dynamic synoptically.

There was an arctic front in the 80s that dropped 7” in an hour some places in northeast MD with thunderstorms. So anything is possible. 

[WxUSAF]

Much more of a coastal-dominant lean on the 18z GEFS vs 12z

 

[Cobalt]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Much more of a coastal-dominant lean on the 18z GEFS vs 12z

Improvements in both the PNA region and in blocking over Baffin Island as per the last 2 GEFS runs. If we are to believe that the GEFS has been handling the pacific domain better than the EPS during this blocking regime, this would be an ample test for that. 

[George BM]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There was an arctic front in the 80s that dropped 7” in an hour some places in northeast MD with thunderstorms. So anything is possible. 

Yeap. January 25, 1985... The year that you're not too fond of.

[Ralph Wiggum]

46 minutes ago, Ji said:

well whats crazy is if things are going this well in an amazing pattern....imagine how things will turn when we hit the typical Nina +AO,+NAO, +EPO

Thats probably when we cash in with a fluke event. You know how it works.

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Much more of a coastal-dominant lean on the 18z GEFS vs 12z

 

 Are we still closing the blinds?

[frd]

 

Tomer Burg feels the  period near December 23 rd will have downstream cyclogensis, but feels currently the data favors inland locations.  He did stress though this is based on the "current" data. 

 

 

 

 

 

[frd]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Are we still closing the blinds?

Still very much like the period from 12/20 to 1/10. 

[Interstate]

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Much more of a coastal-dominant lean on the 18z GEFS vs 12z

 

The CMC had it first. 

[psuhoffman]

@Maestrobjwa you asked for a specific example where something in the past might not work today.  This was one that kinda popped into my head. Feb 8 1997. 6.8” at IAD. A general 4-8” across the whole area. 
 

Somehow is snowed during this pattern…

A weak piece of energy cut across under the pseudo block in southern Canada and managed work out. 

But there was no real cold anywhere in the east south of New England. It was 41 the day before and 37 for a high that day at IAD and most of the snow fell at 32-33 degrees. 

This stuck out because it was one of the last examples of a snow from a feature that used to work a lot. A south central Canada block with an otherwise +AO/NAO.  There are quite a few examples of that look in the snowstorms I studied in the 1940s-1990s. Then they went extinct.  
 

We had a couple patterns like this more recently and we got a perfect track storm but temps ended up too warm. One was late January or early Feb 2020. Within that got awful winter we had a week with a Hudson Bay high and a system came along and off the coast. But the temps even in mid winter were just blah and without any thermal gradient to aid lift from WAA the system was just a weak POS that gave us some drizzle and scattered rain and mix showers along the NW fringe. A nothing burger that at the time stuck out to me as similar to ways we had salvaged a small to moderate snow in an otherwise bad season and mediocre pattern. But as I’ve said recently we just don’t seem to have any prayer in a bad pattern anymore. No way to luck into snow from some micro feature within the bad pattern. Lately unless the pattern is good we’re torching with 55 degree temps and no prayer of snow. Kinda doubt that pattern from 1997 supports snow anymore. 

[CAPE]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Imo what’s “winning” is complicated and depends. I think from a distance without knowing the synoptic details I would be happy with a 4” snow event as a general rule. But again, if 24 hours out were looking at a HECS and it falls apart to just 4” we all know none of us is feeling great from that. 
 

Then there is the macro v micro. In the micro I’ll be happy with a 4” snow on Dec 23.  But at the end of the winter if all I got for the whole season was say 17” (which is a bottom 10% winter here) because we had a couple great patterns and all I got out of them was a few minor snowfalls…it’s a fail for the season.  Getting a small snowfall is fine but at some point we need to cash in big and max out a good pattern if we want to have a good season.  
 

To make a baseball analogy…going into a good pattern like this is kinda like having the bases loaded with nobody out and you’re 4-5 hitters coming up. Let’s say they hit a sac fly and an infield single that gets in 2 runs. In the micro that’s fine. They did ok. Then your bottom of the lineup strikes out.  Later the heart of the lineup comes up with 2 on and again they manage to get one run in. In the micro fine. But at the end of the game when you lose 5-3 you look back on that and realize you needed a 3 run homerun or a base clearing double somewhere in there.   I’m fine with singles as long as once in a while we get that home run. Or at least a double!  

There was an arctic front in the 80s that dropped 7” in an hour some places in northeast MD with thunderstorms. So anything is possible. 

We have talked about that one a few times here. I was Living south of Westminster at that time. Only legit thundersnow I have experienced. Total whiteout, flash freeze with the heavy snow and sudden drop in temp. Rare event for sure. Only thing that came close for me was the Feb 2015 deal.

[osfan24]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Maestrobjwa you asked for a specific example where something in the past might not work today.  This was one that kinda popped into my head. Feb 8 1997. 6.8” at IAD. A general 4-8” across the whole area. 
 

Somehow is snowed during this pattern…

A weak piece of energy cut across under the pseudo block in southern Canada and managed work out. 
 

But there was no real cold anywhere in the east south of New England. It was 41 the day before and 37 for a high that day at IAD and most of the snow fell at 32-33 degrees. 

This stuck out because it was one of the last examples of a snow from a feature that used to work a lot. A south central Canada block with an otherwise +AO/NAO.  There are quite a few examples of that look in the snowstorms I studied in the 1940s-1990s. Then they went extinct.  
 

We had a couple patterns like this more recently and we got a perfect track storm but temps ended up too warm. One was late January or early Feb 2020. Within that got awful winter we had a week with a Hudson Bay high and a system came along and off the coast. But the temps even in mid winter were just blah and without any thermal gradient to aid lift from WAA the system was just a weak POS that gave us some drizzle and scattered rain and mix showers along the NW fringe. A nothing burger that at the time stuck out to me as similar to ways we had salvaged a small to moderate snow in an otherwise bad season and mediocre pattern. But as I’ve said recently we just don’t seem to have any prayer in a bad pattern anymore. No way to luck into snow from some micro feature within the bad pattern. Lately unless the pattern is good we’re torching with 55 degree temps and no prayer of snow. Kinda doubt that pattern from 1997 supports snow anymore. 

I think I remember that one. That was a nice, steady snow pretty much all day. Just light to moderate nonstop. I think I got close to 8 from that one if I have the right one in mind. I'm actually surprised it was quite that warm because it never really snowed hard and I clearly remember there being pretty snow-covered streets. Not necessarily highways, but the main roads in my town were definitely snow-covered.

[Heisy]

 Are we still closing the blinds?

I said close the blinds if that ridge doesn’t shift E. 18z GEFS shifted it east. Let’s see if guidance continues to trend that way. Gotta hope we keep seeing that and maybe beefed up confluence, or the Eve-ranger storm will cut/Ohio valley runner. I know you know this, but dump too much energy out west the SE ridge will flex in this pattern: Regardless, serious strong signal for a major storm/front for 22-23rd period.


.

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I think I remember that one. That was a nice, steady snow pretty much all day. Just light to moderate nonstop. I think I got close to 8 from that one if I have the right one in mind. I'm actually surprised it was quite that warm because it never really snowed hard and I clearly remember there being pretty snow-covered streets. Not necessarily highways, but the main roads in my town were definitely snow-covered.

It was the only good snow that winter in northern VA. My senior year at Oakton HS. It was in the mid 30s as the snow began then temps quickly fell to 33 then 32 as the intensity increased. Eventually towards the very end of the storm that evening temps dropped below freezing. I think the temp splits for the day were 37/29 at IAD and 39/31 at DCA. 

[gymengineer]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was the only good snow that winter in northern VA. My senior year at Oakton HS. It was in the mid 30s as the snow began then temps quickly fell to 33 then 32 as the intensity increased. Eventually towards the very end of the storm that evening temps dropped below freezing. I think the temp splits for the day were 37/29 at IAD and 39/31 at DCA. 

Yeah, it didn’t begin to stick on roads in suburban MoCo until the sun went down, by which point most of the precip was done. Kind of like 2/24/05 and 2/28/05 but even less road accumulations.

To your greater point of marginal not working out in our changed climate, I think another example would be February 1986 (the month, not just one event). I don’t think a repeat would result in 13” at DCA.