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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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@psuhoffman, maybe a lot again comes back to what people mean for “cash in.” I know some are HECS or bust. I’m not and maybe that’s my befuddlement. I’ve said a few times that something like 3” for DCA and ~6” for IAD and BWI would be wins in my book for December. That’s like 200% of normal! And if that comes via a front end thump that eventually mixes or changes over and then is followed by arctic air…bring it on I say.

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman, maybe a lot again comes back to what people mean for “cash in.” I know some are HECS or bust. I’m not and maybe that’s my befuddlement. I’ve said a few times that something like 3” for DCA and ~6” for IAD and BWI would be wins in my book for December. That’s like 200% of normal! And if that comes via a front end thump that eventually mixes or changes over and then is followed by arctic air…bring it on I say.

And not only that, but the timeframe of interest leads right into Christmas. Even a small glacier that would cause Santa to slip off my roof and bust his ACL would be cause for celebration.

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The second I saw teens in san Diego I disregarded the euro ball drop solution.  We get plenty of deep tpv intrusions in the conus. Centered over the 4 corners? Lol. That happens never so we good 

I agree, when I mentioned close the shades I was just basing it off the Euro OP that buries energy in SW with that bad ridge positioning. My point is if we don’t get that ridge to move East we have major problems. Ensemble looks better, but it’s still a close call with plenty still cutting. Maybe another period to watch 26-28th depending on whatever the Xmas eve wave does.


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19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman, maybe a lot again comes back to what people mean for “cash in.” I know some are HECS or bust. I’m not and maybe that’s my befuddlement. I’ve said a few times that something like 3” for DCA and ~6” for IAD and BWI would be wins in my book for December. That’s like 200% of normal! And if that comes via a front end thump that eventually mixes or changes over and then is followed by arctic air…bring it on I say.

I agree. My bar is always set at a reasonable level and my location is one the better within the forum. If we're fortunate for the pattern to come to fruition and we get a solid 2-3 week window, I would be very pleased with 2 or 3 measurable events. Let's say something along the lines of what you described above. A nice front end thump followed by arctic air and maybe a nice wave that's all snow that produces several more inches and if we can get lucky enough for a 3rd event then another moderate front end thump would be ideal. It would be nice to have the cold allow for an extended period of snow cover before the pattern flips. The one caveat I would say would be some of the looks were getting in the 10-15 really do enhance the chance for something major. I did notice that the last few runs of the teleconnections on the EURO are popping the EPO neutral to slightly positive around Christmas but the other indices look great. 

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This is some useful info from the EPS I found on Twitter just now. Here’s the MSLP anomaly next Friday. 
589F3680-6CE5-4A4A-9608-EF025EAFDFEA.thumb.png.937db7e5780f041810cafb950f72d009.png

And this shows MEDIAN temp departure at the same time. Median avoids outliers, which in this case would be the Op on the warm end and perhaps earlier passing storms on the cold side. Temps in the teens…:raining:

 

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22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey even if Chirstmas Eve/Day doesn't give but an inch or two...that would still be a white Christmas and better than 2002! So if we can even get a little just to cover everything, it would still be quite picturesque...Glad there is potential...there's just SO long to go, lol

ive had several snow events on christmas eve since 2002...non satisfying except for 1 and that was wet snow while DC got rain

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48 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

it's plenty representative of the 2 million+ people that live inside the beltway.  I would hear the same nonsense about KNYC (Central Park) being a joke.  It's the station for NYC, not your random suburb.

I'm not so sure I totally agree, but I do understand what you're saying.  I lived for several years in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of DC, and DCA itself wasn't the most representative for snow and even temps on many occasions even there.  I'd argue the National Arboretum (in DC Northeast) was a better match to what I experienced near Constitution Ave. and 9th St. NE and then around H St. NE...the two areas I lived while in that neighborhood.  When I moved more northwest to Silver Spring and then to Bethesda...still in and around the Beltway...DCA was even farther off.  I'd say I get more a cross between DCA and BWI, sort of.  But I don't think DCA itself is representative of the entire area within the Beltway.  There are many times I've seen snowfall reports from locations within the District itself that were notably more than what the DCA airport recorded, and not all those places were necessarily in far DC Northwest either (which is elevated).

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4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Perhaps something like Feb. 14, 2015...or even more so??

That event had an unexpected mesoscale low form along the front which produced that boom in snow totals. I think what the gfs just spit out would be way more dynamic synoptically.

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That event had an unexpected mesoscale low form along the front which produced that boom in snow totals. I think what the gfs just spit out would be way more dynamic synoptically.

That's what it looked like to me.  I know, parsing details of a model some 10 days out, but still.  That's one hella dynamic system there and if it happens that way I could see a burst of heavy snow right as temps crash.  Not like a huge amount, but still.  In that Feb. 2014 event, I got about 2" in less than 2 hours as that Arctic front breezed through.  This looks more intense than that.

If something like that happened, probably nearly all of us would be pitching tent...so to speak!

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