December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Looks disastrous.  Better pack it up and maybe we get lucky in March before spring arrives for good.  

I'm on my way to Lowes to buy shades as we speak

[Cobalt]

I see two distinct camps. Euro OP looks to be part of that cluster of LPs over the great lakes.

Despite a slight trend in heights to favor the Euro OP over the CONUS (not enough to resemble or cave to the OP however), check out the run to run change of lower heights near the 50/50 region. I would like to see that be picked up in future ensemble runs.

 

[WxUSAF]

^That 987mb off Wallops Island would be acceptable I think.

[Weather Will]

WB 10 day EURO ensemble v. Op.,

[Weather Will]

Remember it was the EURO op. for a couple runs that gave us 2 feet of snow for TH…..

[Bob Chill]

The second I saw teens in san Diego I disregarded the euro ball drop solution.  We get plenty of deep tpv intrusions in the conus. Centered over the 4 corners? Lol. That happens never so we good 

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Close the shades??  This is "close the shades"??  

 

I mean, are we only hunting for HECS here?  That ^^ is like a 9/10 look for snow chances for us. The VAST majority of our snow falls in a long wave pattern that is not a 10/10.   If we can only deal with 10/10 or we only get snow in 10/10 patterns, then it's time to move north or quit this hobby. 

Careful….You’re tip toeing near a rabbit hole that got some pretty mad at me last year  

In seriousness though…something I’ve anecdotally observed over this 6 year run that’s been the “worst in history” wrt snow…while the pattern has been awful much of the time, what’s actually made it worst ever was when we did get patterns that historically were plenty good enough to snow they were also mostly frustratingly underperforming.  
 

That said we are just at the precipice of this coming pattern but if we did manage to waste a -4 AO, -epo, neutral pna pattern coming up that will go into my memory bank as another check mark in the “uh oh” column for sure.  I’m optimistic we cash in somewhere coming up, just saying.  

 

[WxUSAF]

@psuhoffman, maybe a lot again comes back to what people mean for “cash in.” I know some are HECS or bust. I’m not and maybe that’s my befuddlement. I’ve said a few times that something like 3” for DCA and ~6” for IAD and BWI would be wins in my book for December. That’s like 200% of normal! And if that comes via a front end thump that eventually mixes or changes over and then is followed by arctic air…bring it on I say.

[mattie g]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman, maybe a lot again comes back to what people mean for “cash in.” I know some are HECS or bust. I’m not and maybe that’s my befuddlement. I’ve said a few times that something like 3” for DCA and ~6” for IAD and BWI would be wins in my book for December. That’s like 200% of normal! And if that comes via a front end thump that eventually mixes or changes over and then is followed by arctic air…bring it on I say.

And not only that, but the timeframe of interest leads right into Christmas. Even a small glacier that would cause Santa to slip off my roof and bust his ACL would be cause for celebration.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Even a small glacier that would cause Santa to slip off my roof and bust his ACL would be cause for celebration.

Ayoooo bro why you dissing the big guy like that? 

[Heisy]

The second I saw teens in san Diego I disregarded the euro ball drop solution.  We get plenty of deep tpv intrusions in the conus. Centered over the 4 corners? Lol. That happens never so we good 

I agree, when I mentioned close the shades I was just basing it off the Euro OP that buries energy in SW with that bad ridge positioning. My point is if we don’t get that ridge to move East we have major problems. Ensemble looks better, but it’s still a close call with plenty still cutting. Maybe another period to watch 26-28th depending on whatever the Xmas eve wave does.


.

[pazzo83]

9 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

For perspective, the last -20F or greater wintertime (DJFM) departure at BWI was Jan 31, 2019. We've had MANY +20F days in DJFM since then. 

the fact that DCA struggles to get below freezing with reasonably "cold" air masses these days is telling.

[HighStakes]

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman, maybe a lot again comes back to what people mean for “cash in.” I know some are HECS or bust. I’m not and maybe that’s my befuddlement. I’ve said a few times that something like 3” for DCA and ~6” for IAD and BWI would be wins in my book for December. That’s like 200% of normal! And if that comes via a front end thump that eventually mixes or changes over and then is followed by arctic air…bring it on I say.

I agree. My bar is always set at a reasonable level and my location is one the better within the forum. If we're fortunate for the pattern to come to fruition and we get a solid 2-3 week window, I would be very pleased with 2 or 3 measurable events. Let's say something along the lines of what you described above. A nice front end thump followed by arctic air and maybe a nice wave that's all snow that produces several more inches and if we can get lucky enough for a 3rd event then another moderate front end thump would be ideal. It would be nice to have the cold allow for an extended period of snow cover before the pattern flips. The one caveat I would say would be some of the looks were getting in the 10-15 really do enhance the chance for something major. I did notice that the last few runs of the teleconnections on the EURO are popping the EPO neutral to slightly positive around Christmas but the other indices look great. 

[mattie g]

47 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

the fact that DCA struggles to get below freezing with reasonably "cold" air masses these days is telling.

DCA is a joke.

[pazzo83]

25 minutes ago, mattie g said:

DCA is a joke.

it's plenty representative of the 2 million+ people that live inside the beltway.  I would hear the same nonsense about KNYC (Central Park) being a joke.  It's the station for NYC, not your random suburb.

[WxUSAF]

This is some useful info from the EPS I found on Twitter just now. Here’s the MSLP anomaly next Friday. 

And this shows MEDIAN temp departure at the same time. Median avoids outliers, which in this case would be the Op on the warm end and perhaps earlier passing storms on the cold side. Temps in the teens…

 

[Maestrobjwa]

Hey even if Chirstmas Eve/Day doesn't give but an inch or two...that would still be a white Christmas and better than 2002! So if we can even get a little just to cover everything, it would still be quite picturesque...Glad there is potential...there's just SO long to go, lol

[Ji]

22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey even if Chirstmas Eve/Day doesn't give but an inch or two...that would still be a white Christmas and better than 2002! So if we can even get a little just to cover everything, it would still be quite picturesque...Glad there is potential...there's just SO long to go, lol

ive had several snow events on christmas eve since 2002...non satisfying except for 1 and that was wet snow while DC got rain

[Ji]

so between Thursday event and something maybe on Dec 23? We are going go 8 days without precip in a good pattern?

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

And not only that, but the timeframe of interest leads right into Christmas. Even a small glacier that would cause Santa to slip off my roof and bust his ACL would be cause for celebration.

[CAPE]

That is one hellacious Arctic cold front on HH GFS.

[Amped]

18z GFS trying to pull a November 1950, just further north.

[midatlanticweather]

This looks like we repeat next week! Some slop to rain then the ice box. (According to the GFS OP)

Perfect. LOL! NOT! 

 

 

[Weather Will]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

so between Thursday event and something maybe on Dec 23? We are going go 8 days without precip in a good pattern?

Got to get the cold established so it can be wiped out before the next storm….

[midatlanticweather]

Flash Freeze?! LOL! Dang, that is goanna be a Christmas Decoration obliteration due to winds!! YIKES! 

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

48 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

it's plenty representative of the 2 million+ people that live inside the beltway.  I would hear the same nonsense about KNYC (Central Park) being a joke.  It's the station for NYC, not your random suburb.

I'm not so sure I totally agree, but I do understand what you're saying.  I lived for several years in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of DC, and DCA itself wasn't the most representative for snow and even temps on many occasions even there.  I'd argue the National Arboretum (in DC Northeast) was a better match to what I experienced near Constitution Ave. and 9th St. NE and then around H St. NE...the two areas I lived while in that neighborhood.  When I moved more northwest to Silver Spring and then to Bethesda...still in and around the Beltway...DCA was even farther off.  I'd say I get more a cross between DCA and BWI, sort of.  But I don't think DCA itself is representative of the entire area within the Beltway.  There are many times I've seen snowfall reports from locations within the District itself that were notably more than what the DCA airport recorded, and not all those places were necessarily in far DC Northwest either (which is elevated).

[CAPE]

Might not drop a lot of snow, but this would be fun AF.

[Amped]

And that would be a record if I'm not mistaken.

 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, CAPE said:

Might not drop a lot of snow, but this would be fun AF.

That’s wild. And that snow along the arctic front on the GFS is “real” and not an illusion like sometimes happens on the backside of storms on certain plots. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That is one hellacious Arctic cold front on HH GFS.

Avocado cold front