December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Some crappy little Ice event 

There’s still a storm signal in the east for that time frame.  OPs will continue to fluctuate this far out.  Can’t ask for more with that kind of cold nearby. 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

There’s still a storm signal in the east for that time frame.  OPs will continue to fluctuate this far out.  Can’t ask for more with that kind of cold nearby. 

Hopefully we get something but, could be the usual case of it’s brutally cold for days then it warms up and rains or ices and then cold again. Hope it’s not the case. 

[TSSN+]

Merry Fridgemas 

[Maestrobjwa]

7 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Hopefully we get something but, could be the usual case of it’s brutally cold for days then it warms up and rains or ices and then cold again. Hope it’s not the case. 

I'm not sure this is that kind of pattern. This cold air ain't going anywhere easily, imo

[Steve25]

Non-scientific but I'm using the "Were due" logic for this pattern in the final 10 days of December.  BWI has went 12 consecutive December's with less than 5 inches of snow(10 out of those 12 have recorded less than 1.6 inches). I'm aware December's aren't a strong snow month overall for our region but that's still a particularly bleak stretch. 

[frd]

 

 Another reinforcing drop in the - AO towards day 7 through 9.  

 

[frd]

 GEFS trends continue to get colder and the extreme departures are moving East. 

 

[WxUSAF]

15-25F departures at D14 is pretty nuts.  If there's some snow cover...

[frd]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

15-25F departures at D14 is pretty nuts.  If there's some snow cover...

 

Snow should be nearby.  The real window for significant snowfall in our region might be right after this time period. Of course, I gladly take a SECS prior to Christmas.  To have that airmass over snow covered ground would be epic !  

The depiction of snowfall from the GEFS is interesting, thought there be more of a Tenn. Valley component. 

 

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

15-25F departures at D14 is pretty nuts.  If there's some snow cover...

I have to think there will be some mood snow even if its a heavy squall during arctic intrusions.  those departures look dry and squashing for precip to occur. 

[CAPE]

After the late week event this looks like the most active period leading up to Christmas on the latest GEFS. Given the cold look, decent chance this would be frozen.

[Chris78]

10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I have to think there will be some mood snow even if its a heavy squall during arctic intrusions.  those departures look dry and squashing for precip to occur. 

Yep. We don't need artic cold for snow. The precip anomalies on 6z gefs  look fairly dry

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Yep. We don't need artic cold for snow. The precip anomalies on 6z gefs  look fairly dry

Agreed but who knows how things will  turn out.  when you have 1050+ highs pushing down with 486 thickness levels you never know what your gonna get.  maybe a fun snow squall line....at least if its going to warm up and rain between cold shots it will have a fight pushing the cold away from the blocking...we'd have to see some bad luck not to get something out of this between now and 1 Jan....really bad luck

[WxUSAF]

Definitely a window for a storm/storms before Xmas and this potential arctic airmass, plus there can always be some snow squalls along the arctic boundary as @BristowWx mentioned.  Still think we need to clear out this week's big storm before we get any clarity on next week.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

44 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

15-25F departures at D14 is pretty nuts.  If there's some snow cover...

Agreed 100%. If we dont have snow cover by then and that cold/dry look verifies, gonna be alot of frustrated weenies. It may very well end up being the relax from those departures that we eventually key-in on?

[Wonderdog]

22 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Agreed but who knows how things will  turn out.  when you have 1050+ highs pushing down with 486 thickness levels you never know what your gonna get.  maybe a fun snow squall line....at least if its going to warm up and rain between cold shots it will have a fight pushing the cold away from the blocking...we'd have to see some bad luck not to get something out of this between now and 1 Jan....really bad luck

Thank heavens we never have bad luck.

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Agreed 100%. If we dont have snow cover by then and that cold/dry look verifies, gonna be alot of frustrated weenies. It may very well end up being the relax from those departures that we eventually key-in on?

At this point I see no reason to think that a favorable pattern even begins to end the week after Xmas.  We'll just have to see how our luck shakes out, but I'd be very surprised if we're skunked through New Year's.  Note that doesn't mean that we get multiple KUs.  I think monthly totals of 3" at DCA and ~6" at BWI and IAD would be "wins" and is eminently achievable with the pattern we have for the last 2 weeks of the month. 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

At this point I see no reason to think that a favorable pattern even begins to end the week after Xmas.  We'll just have to see how our luck shakes out, but I'd be very surprised if we're skunked through New Year's.  Note that doesn't mean that we get multiple KUs.  I think monthly totals of 3" at DCA and ~6" at BWI and IAD would be "wins" and is eminently achievable with the pattern we have for the last 2 weeks of the month. 

Fwiw the GEFS extended keeps the same general longwave pattern in place with below average temps through the end of the run- mid Jan.

[Solution Man]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Fwiw the GEFS extended keeps the same general longwave pattern in place with below average temps through the end of the run- mid Jan.

We should score a couple of times with a pattern like that. The cold air is Terry McLaurin and the waves are Taylor Heinicke.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, frd said:

 

 Another reinforcing drop in the - AO towards day 7 through 9.  

 

No it doesn't.

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Definitely a window for a storm/storms before Xmas and this potential arctic airmass, plus there can always be some snow squalls along the arctic boundary as @BristowWx mentioned.  Still think we need to clear out this week's big storm before we get any clarity on next week.  

This is what weenies like me need to focus on. That storm sets the stage for what happens after it, so until it's come and gone we're going to see some fluctuations in what the models show for this period of interest.

We watch and wait and teeter on the edge of despair.

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

This is what weenies like me need to focus on. That storm sets the stage for what happens after it, so until it's come and gone we're going to see some fluctuations in what the models show for this period of interest.

We watch and wait and teeter on the edge of despair.

At least we almost maybe eliminated the need to say "there is just no cold air around"....it's around for once

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, mattie g said:

This is what weenies like me need to focus on. That storm sets the stage for what happens after it, so until it's come and gone we're going to see some fluctuations in what the models show for this period of interest.

We watch and wait and teeter on the edge of despair.

Hopefully by mid-January, our frustrated lack of patience will be a distant memory for everyone except @psuhoffman who will have total recall how many misses we had before scoring.

[mattie g]

7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

At least we almost maybe eliminated the need to say "there is just no cold air around"....it's around for once

Yup. Now I'm just waiting for WinterWxLuvr to come in and tell us that we need precip first!

[WxUSAF]

16 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Yup. Now I'm just waiting for WinterWxLuvr to come in and tell us that we need precip first!

 

[SnowGolfBro]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

And this is representative of our most cordial threads

[psuhoffman]

53 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Hopefully by mid-January, our frustrated lack of patience will be a distant memory for everyone except @psuhoffman who will have total recall how many misses we had before scoring.

Late January 2007. Every guidance showed a nice 3-6” event from a rather weak wave along a stalled boundary only 24 hours out.  Everything except the NAM. We were tossing it since surely that one relatively new and so far unreliable model couldn’t be right against all else. Wanna guess what happened?  

[WVclimo]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Late January 2007. Every guidance showed a nice 3-6” event from a rather weak wave along a stalled boundary only 24 hours out.  Everything except the NAM. We were tossing it since surely that one relatively new and so far unreliable model couldn’t be right against all else. Wanna guess what happened?  

My first winter in WV.  I was so frustrated after that bust, and the winter to that point, that I headed to the mountains for a snow fix.  When I returned, a great pattern set in and there were numerous snowfalls through mid-March.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

My first winter in WV.  I was so frustrated after that bust, and the winter to that point, that I headed to the mountains for a snow fix.  When I returned, a great pattern set in and there were numerous snowfalls through mid-March.

Unfortunately I think we underperformed. Had a pretty good pattern from like Jan 20 through March but never really got a flush hit. Lots of minor events and a big ice storm though. 

[mattie g]

12z GFS is trying to set up a storm on the 21st-22nd now. Problem is that we have a Great Lakes Low and heights are high out in front of the storm and we don't have cold air in place. Northern vort never drops in and phases with the southern energy, so touthern low just slides off the coast after a little bit of frozen precip.

So different than the look just 18 hours ago. I mean...not even close.