December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[osfan24]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That hasn’t been my experience. Just going back over some notably great patterns…

1996 we got some minor snow in November and early December from a pac driven pattern. But the great blocking set in around Dec 10 then we struck out on like the first 5 waves before the big storm finally hit in January.  

2003 we did hit our first threat in December.  Then we struck out on a couple and lucked into some back end snow after a big rainstorm on Xmas. But then we went almost a month in the middle of that winter with mostly cold and dry conditions before the epic February.

We had a really good pattern in Jan-Mar 2005 but mostly struck out again and again until we finally hit on back to back snows in late February early March. 
 

2009-10 we waited a couple weeks and then cities missed on 3 threats before the big storm. Then when blocking reloaded in January we missed on the first several chances again, which was when Ji went on that now infamous rant before we went on that heater in early February. But after we also missed 3 more threats to end that winter and Ji made another epic post that it made the winter disappointing to end that way lol. 
 

2013-14 was the only exception where we seemed to hit everything. That was rare Imo and we got lucky. 
 

2014-15 the pattern flipped to an epic -epo pna pattern in mid January then we suffered for a month while New England got blasted. And I remember you making a post in early Feb that year saying that meant we weren’t going to get snow. Then we went on an epic run Mid Feb and March. 
 

2016 January the block set in then we wasted 3 threads. One was similar to this coming storm, muller b with not enough cold. Then a cutter. Then a suppressed storm and finally the big hit. Then we mostly wasted the same pattern for several weeks after also. We also missed 2 good threats in March that year.  We under performed. 
 

March 2018. Amazing pattern. But we missed 3 times before the hit.  Perfect track coastal with not enough cold. Then a miller b that developed late. Then a suppressed storm. I made an epic rant and we got the hit right after. 
 

This is subjective somewhat, but just pointing out from my perspective even when we’ve had great patterns and great winters we miss a lot and sometimes have to suffer before snow. I think we just block out the misses and just remember the hits when we look back. 

I would like to say that I will take one for the team and am willing to deal with the Ji disappointing winter of 2009-2010 this year and until the end of time.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I remember all the hits too, unfortunately that’s a much smaller list. 
 

I’m lucky to have a good memory. Secret is I never studied and I’m not that smart…I just remember everything.  I do think there is value in knowing how we’ve failed though.  

I remember a few, but nowhere near your recall. I remember the end of Feb 2010 and the start of Feb 2015 smoking New England. A few others that looked good from range and turned into nothing (early January 2018). 

[osfan24]

I don't really remember anything individually about 2013-2014. I just remember it being the most amazing, true winter from a wall-to-wall standpoint. Every single little wave seemed to hit us and either dump as much, if not more, than the forecasted amount, and it was just freezing cold the entire way. It's what I'd imagine it would be like to live in some place like Chicago or Minneapolis. And then 2014-2015 seemed like a repeat, except it was for only the second half of winter. I'd definitely take 2009-2010 over it, but I think 2013-2014 might be my second favorite winter I've ever experienced.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, osfan24 said:

I don't really remember anything individually about 2013-2014. I just remember it being the most amazing, true winter from a wall-to-wall standpoint. Every single little wave seemed to hit us and either dump as much, if not more, than the forecasted amount, and it was just freezing cold the entire way. It's what I'd imagine it would be like to live in some place like Chicago or Minneapolis. And then 2014-2015 seemed like a repeat, except it was for only the second half of winter. I'd definitely take 2009-2010 over it, but I think 2013-2014 might be my second favorite winter I've ever experienced.

The only thing that would've made 2013-2014 truly epic would've been a solid 12"+ event for everyone.

[DarkSharkWX]

With all favorable teleconnections(-EPO/-NAO/-AO/+PNA), we don't have to worry about getting good cold air. However, this pattern will also be active in terms of storms. The -EPO will deliver polar flow and allow cold air to flood into the CONUS as well as bring strong NS shortwaves into the US. This is evident on the 250mb wind maps where we see an active northern stream. With an active STJ(as shown on 250mb wind maps), providing southern stream shortwaves, the northern stream shortwaves dive down and potentially phase with the southern stream shortwaves, which could bring large storms along with the cold air.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman your photographic memory of our failures never ceases to amaze me lol 

The emotional impact of close misses will do that to ya...lol And I know how he feels...since I've been on here I can remember several fails in detail. You know I can still visualize that GL low diving down and screwing us over in March 2018, that Dec 2018 storm that smoked the south and the H5 map with the confluence in the NE that we were trying to will weaker, the March 2017 sleet storm...yep, you don't forget, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The only thing that would've made 2013-2014 truly epic would've been a solid 12"+ event for everyone.

The Feb system gave central MD almost that much...but not sure about DCA

[AtlanticWx]

GEFS 250mb wind plot vs. composite of 250mb winds around or during some of our biggest hits around DC. Can see a few similarities. Exciting pattern coming up, just need to see if anything materializes out of it.

[Cobalt]

On 12/11/2022 at 7:30 PM, psuhoffman said:

That hasn’t been my experience. Just going back over some notably great patterns…

Feb 2021 is one that stands out to me in recent memory. I had to look back at the h500 maps and it looks like we actually had a +PNA during the first half of that blocking period in January. The issue was that there had been a raging +EPO that helped in scouring out any sustained cold in Canada, so storms became shredded messes as they made their way eastwards. It took more than 3 weeks to sustain cold enough airmasses for adequate threats in the East, misses or otherwise. That was when someone (I can't remember who) brought up the data on how DC tends to reliably sustain at least one stretch during each met winter where snow doesn't fall for at least 3-4 weeks (if not more), almost regardless of the underlying patterns. That's been a way for me to mitigate expectations when favorable patterns develop and wane, and as you brought up, it typically takes some time for the stage to get set, even in our most dynamic and favorable setups. 

[WxUSAF]

@AtlanticWx and @DarkSharkWX, appreciate your contributions as new members 

[clskinsfan]

Anyone know where I can find Northern Hemisphere upper air maps for December of 1983? That is the king of December arctic outbreaks for me. We were -7 on Christmas morning here. 

[nj2va]

Regarding Thursday’s storm, one thing to keep an eye on regarding potential for icing are the dews.  18z Euro is showing DPs at 12 out in the mountains and teens/low 20s for the 81 corridor/N MD.  This would lead to evaporational cooling as precip breaks out overnight Wednesday into Thursday.  

[osfan24]

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The Feb system gave central MD almost that much...but not sure about DCA

Oh man, forgot about that one for a second. Oddly, that storm was irritating to me. Got dumped on overnight and then dripped during the day and went from about a foot of snow down to a few inches. Meanwhile, I think PSU stayed colder and it kept snowing there all afternoon and he got like 20+.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Oh man, forgot about that one for a second. Oddly, that storm was irritating to me. Got dumped on overnight and then dripped during the day and went from about a foot of snow down to a few inches. Meanwhile, I think PSU stayed colder and it kept snowing there all afternoon and he got like 20+.

I got 18” out of that split between 14” in the WAA and then 4” with the ULL in the evening 

[Buddy1987]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Anyone know where I can find Northern Hemisphere upper air maps for December of 1983? That is the king of December arctic outbreaks for me. We were -7 on Christmas morning here. 

I honestly kinda thought University of Wyoming would have something. Only thing I could really find was a Washington Post article that has a lot of similarities between 1983 and then the 2013 setup. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/12/06/current-pattern-draws-comparisons-to-that-from-historically-cold-December-1983/

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I got 18” out of that split between 14” in the WAA and then 4” with the ULL in the evening 

That was when I was in Elkridge so I was a bit east of you then. I did get a couple inches tacked on in the evening, but overall, was disappointing for me given all the melting and what surrounding areas received. Guessing I would have fared quite a bit better at my current location.

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I got 18” out of that split between 14” in the WAA and then 4” with the ULL in the evening 

I remember doing an epic walk in the middle of the night while snow was puking.  That WAA was fun.

[Buddy1987]

Just now, nj2va said:

I remember doing an epic walk in the middle of the night while snow was puking.  That WAA was fun.

Need Jebman to give his analysis and break down the play by play on his walk for that one 

[Cobalt]

10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Anyone know where I can find Northern Hemisphere upper air maps for December of 1983? That is the king of December arctic outbreaks for me. We were -7 on Christmas morning here. 

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/hour/ This site gives you a lot of parameters to mess around with, so you can change the timeframe and metrics depicted on the map. Definitely a recipe for an icebox as shown in that panel. 

 

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

That was when I was in Elkridge so I was a bit east of you then. I did get a couple inches tacked on in the evening, but overall, was disappointing for me given all the melting and what surrounding areas received. Guessing I would have fared quite a bit better at my current location.

 

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I remember doing an epic walk in the middle of the night while snow was puking.  That WAA was fun.

Yeah, that WAA ripped. I think the forecast was for like 6-9” or so with it and then a bit more with the ULL? ULL was basically as advertised but the WAA overperformed for sure. Yes the daytime drizzle and 35F melting was annoying but not too bad.

[AtlanticWx]

23 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Anyone know where I can find Northern Hemisphere upper air maps for December of 1983? That is the king of December arctic outbreaks for me. We were -7 on Christmas morning here. 

You can create the plot below at https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl btw, but here's a map of Dec 1983 H5 anomalies.

EDIT: Didn't see someone already posted it haha.

[Eskimo Joe]

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I got 18” out of that split between 14” in the WAA and then 4” with the ULL in the evening 

 

24 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Oh man, forgot about that one for a second. Oddly, that storm was irritating to me. Got dumped on overnight and then dripped during the day and went from about a foot of snow down to a few inches. Meanwhile, I think PSU stayed colder and it kept snowing there all afternoon and he got like 20+.

 

38 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The Feb system gave central MD almost that much...but not sure about DCA

That storm featured an intense gradient. Takoma Park got only 5", but Damascus got two reports of over 17" I believe. 

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

That storm featured an intense gradient. Takoma Park got only 5", but Damascus got two reports of over 17" I believe. 

Yes. I was in TP at that time and we were quite warm and drippy while folks NW (not even that far NW) partied. As others noted though, that was a great winter so I was able to deal. Especially after the March overperformers that came a few weeks later.

[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Oh man, forgot about that one for a second. Oddly, that storm was irritating to me. Got dumped on overnight and then dripped during the day and went from about a foot of snow down to a few inches. Meanwhile, I think PSU stayed colder and it kept snowing there all afternoon and he got like 20+.

I was up in PA that one winter and got 14” but where I am now got 23” according to the coop down the street. 

[TSSN+]

Little icy NW of cities per 18z euro 

[Rhino16]

Hopefully if the pattern arrives, it stays for awhile. Let’s go for 2023 top 10 snowiest year. 

[poolz1]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I remember all the hits too, unfortunately that’s a much smaller list. 
 

I’m lucky to have a good memory. Secret is I never studied and I’m not that smart…I just remember everything.  I do think there is value in knowing how we’ve failed though.  

Had a roommate at WVU who's memory was very similar.  So frustrating seeing him party while I studied   my butt off and he still scored higher that I did. It is def a gift. 

[nj2va]

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Little icy NW of cities per 18z euro 

GFS and Euro both creeping up the start times too…now overnight Wednesday into Thursday.  

[Scraff]

9 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Had a roommate at WVU who's memory was very similar.  So frustrating seeing him party while I studied   my butt off and he still scored higher that I did. It is def a gift. 

Someone say WVU!? 

[poolz1]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Someone say WVU!? 

Cheers my friend!   Class of 2000...  Showing my age! lol