December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[BristowWx]

^wow

[Bob Chill]

@WxUSAFso after the mini storm train and frozen white Christmas, we can shift our focus on the big dog KU Archembault phased bomb

[nj2va]

GFS setting up again at the end of its run.  What a weenie run.

[Prestige Worldwide]

Just now, nj2va said:

GFS setting up again at the end of its run.  What a weenie run.

The biggest weenie run I can remember in a long time.  Just wow 

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@WxUSAFso after the mini storm train and frozen white Christmas, we can shift our focus on the big dog KU Archembault phased bomb

Looks to be an ice storm for the ages setting up on top of that snowpack. What a run

 

[frd]

 

Oh my, unreal and eerie

 

[WxUSAF]

GFS is clearly locked in. Sharpen the shovels. Let’s gooooooooo

[Eskimo Joe]

22 minutes ago, nj2va said:

GFS setting up again at the end of its run.  What a weenie run.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

Just got bit by a mosquito hanging lights

What kind of mosquito is out here hanging lights?  

[IronTy]

The Christmas storm is happening. I can feel it.  

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

The Christmas storm is happening. I can feel it.  

Yea, WDI is through the roof.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

The Christmas storm is happening. I can feel it.  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What kind of mosquito is out here hanging lights?  

Evidently a very strong one?

[IUsedToHateCold]

My picks in the snowfall contest are starting to look real good 

[Solution Man]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What kind of mosquito is out here hanging lights?  

Need you to get it in, and come back for PBP

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea, WDI is through the roof.

It would be 20 years to the day since our last white Christmas, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@WxUSAFso after the mini storm train and frozen white Christmas, we can shift our focus on the big dog KU Archembault phased bomb

Ohhhh no...Boxing Day? Nope, not doin' that again, lol

[IronTy]

17 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

We're gonna be snowshoeing by Christmas.  

[nj2va]

Not a bad signal for 12 days out.

Also, the 500 NHEM loop on the 18z is .

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

I would disagree experientially that “even in our best patterns we often need multiple chances before we get a hit”

In our best patterns it snows just about every time it can . When we are speaking of multiple misses beforehand we are mostly In trouble 

That hasn’t been my experience. Just going back over some notably great patterns…

1996 we got some minor snow in November and early December from a pac driven pattern. But the great blocking set in around Dec 10 then we struck out on like the first 5 waves before the big storm finally hit in January.  

2003 we did hit our first threat in December.  Then we struck out on a couple and lucked into some back end snow after a big rainstorm on Xmas. But then we went almost a month in the middle of that winter with mostly cold and dry conditions before the epic February.

We had a really good pattern in Jan-Mar 2005 but mostly struck out again and again until we finally hit on back to back snows in late February early March. 
 

2009-10 we waited a couple weeks and then cities missed on 3 threats before the big storm. Then when blocking reloaded in January we missed on the first several chances again, which was when Ji went on that now infamous rant before we went on that heater in early February. But after we also missed 3 more threats to end that winter and Ji made another epic post that it made the winter disappointing to end that way lol. 
 

2013-14 was the only exception where we seemed to hit everything. That was rare Imo and we got lucky. 
 

2014-15 the pattern flipped to a  -epo pna pattern in mid January then we suffered for a month while New England got blasted and we missed threat after threat.  Then we went on an epic run Mid Feb and March. 
 

2016 January the block set in then we wasted 3 threads. One was similar to this coming storm, muller b with not enough cold. Then a cutter. Then a suppressed storm and finally the big hit. Then we mostly wasted the same pattern for several weeks after also. We also missed 2 good threats in March that year.  We under performed. 
 

March 2018. Amazing pattern. But we missed 3 times before the hit.  Perfect track coastal with not enough cold. Then a miller b that developed late. Then a suppressed storm. I made an epic rant and we got the hit right after. 
 

This is subjective somewhat, but just pointing out from my perspective even when we’ve had great patterns and great winters we miss a lot and sometimes have to suffer before snow. I think we just block out the misses and just remember the hits when we look back. 

[WxUSAF]

@psuhoffman your photographic memory of our failures never ceases to amaze me lol 

[clskinsfan]

The 18Z GEFS run from basically this Thursday until the end is probably one of the best runs I can ever remember. I dont see how we dont smoked at least a couple of times if that pattern verifies. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman your photographic memory of our failures never ceases to amaze me lol 

I remember all the hits too, unfortunately that’s a much smaller list. 
 

I’m lucky to have a good memory. Secret is I never studied and I’m not that smart…I just remember everything.  I do think there is value in knowing how we’ve failed though.  

[osfan24]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That hasn’t been my experience. Just going back over some notably great patterns…

1996 we got some minor snow in November and early December from a pac driven pattern. But the great blocking set in around Dec 10 then we struck out on like the first 5 waves before the big storm finally hit in January.  

2003 we did hit our first threat in December.  Then we struck out on a couple and lucked into some back end snow after a big rainstorm on Xmas. But then we went almost a month in the middle of that winter with mostly cold and dry conditions before the epic February.

We had a really good pattern in Jan-Mar 2005 but mostly struck out again and again until we finally hit on back to back snows in late February early March. 
 

2009-10 we waited a couple weeks and then cities missed on 3 threats before the big storm. Then when blocking reloaded in January we missed on the first several chances again, which was when Ji went on that now infamous rant before we went on that heater in early February. But after we also missed 3 more threats to end that winter and Ji made another epic post that it made the winter disappointing to end that way lol. 
 

2013-14 was the only exception where we seemed to hit everything. That was rare Imo and we got lucky. 
 

2014-15 the pattern flipped to an epic -epo pna pattern in mid January then we suffered for a month while New England got blasted. And I remember you making a post in early Feb that year saying that meant we weren’t going to get snow. Then we went on an epic run Mid Feb and March. 
 

2016 January the block set in then we wasted 3 threads. One was similar to this coming storm, muller b with not enough cold. Then a cutter. Then a suppressed storm and finally the big hit. Then we mostly wasted the same pattern for several weeks after also. We also missed 2 good threats in March that year.  We under performed. 
 

March 2018. Amazing pattern. But we missed 3 times before the hit.  Perfect track coastal with not enough cold. Then a miller b that developed late. Then a suppressed storm. I made an epic rant and we got the hit right after. 
 

This is subjective somewhat, but just pointing out from my perspective even when we’ve had great patterns and great winters we miss a lot and sometimes have to suffer before snow. I think we just block out the misses and just remember the hits when we look back. 

I would like to say that I will take one for the team and am willing to deal with the Ji disappointing winter of 2009-2010 this year and until the end of time.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I remember all the hits too, unfortunately that’s a much smaller list. 
 

I’m lucky to have a good memory. Secret is I never studied and I’m not that smart…I just remember everything.  I do think there is value in knowing how we’ve failed though.  

I remember a few, but nowhere near your recall. I remember the end of Feb 2010 and the start of Feb 2015 smoking New England. A few others that looked good from range and turned into nothing (early January 2018). 

[osfan24]

I don't really remember anything individually about 2013-2014. I just remember it being the most amazing, true winter from a wall-to-wall standpoint. Every single little wave seemed to hit us and either dump as much, if not more, than the forecasted amount, and it was just freezing cold the entire way. It's what I'd imagine it would be like to live in some place like Chicago or Minneapolis. And then 2014-2015 seemed like a repeat, except it was for only the second half of winter. I'd definitely take 2009-2010 over it, but I think 2013-2014 might be my second favorite winter I've ever experienced.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, osfan24 said:

I don't really remember anything individually about 2013-2014. I just remember it being the most amazing, true winter from a wall-to-wall standpoint. Every single little wave seemed to hit us and either dump as much, if not more, than the forecasted amount, and it was just freezing cold the entire way. It's what I'd imagine it would be like to live in some place like Chicago or Minneapolis. And then 2014-2015 seemed like a repeat, except it was for only the second half of winter. I'd definitely take 2009-2010 over it, but I think 2013-2014 might be my second favorite winter I've ever experienced.

The only thing that would've made 2013-2014 truly epic would've been a solid 12"+ event for everyone.

[DarkSharkWX]

With all favorable teleconnections(-EPO/-NAO/-AO/+PNA), we don't have to worry about getting good cold air. However, this pattern will also be active in terms of storms. The -EPO will deliver polar flow and allow cold air to flood into the CONUS as well as bring strong NS shortwaves into the US. This is evident on the 250mb wind maps where we see an active northern stream. With an active STJ(as shown on 250mb wind maps), providing southern stream shortwaves, the northern stream shortwaves dive down and potentially phase with the southern stream shortwaves, which could bring large storms along with the cold air.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman your photographic memory of our failures never ceases to amaze me lol 

The emotional impact of close misses will do that to ya...lol And I know how he feels...since I've been on here I can remember several fails in detail. You know I can still visualize that GL low diving down and screwing us over in March 2018, that Dec 2018 storm that smoked the south and the H5 map with the confluence in the NE that we were trying to will weaker, the March 2017 sleet storm...yep, you don't forget, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The only thing that would've made 2013-2014 truly epic would've been a solid 12"+ event for everyone.

The Feb system gave central MD almost that much...but not sure about DCA