Wonderdog Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Snow falling and sticking would be a win in my books....at any time of the winter honestly Agreed. But does anyone know how many times in the last twenty years when models showed similar setups in December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: But isn't it even more than just blocking with Ninas? I thought another reason were also problematic because of having little to no STJ...and more NS interference. That element isn't as problematic in Niños, is it? Also, I'm still trying to visualize how 1995-96 worked...was the blocking so strong it forced everything under us, or? Extreme blocking can help with slowing things down and mitigate some of that. It can’t, however, juice up the STJ. But we can get legit snowstorms out of the weaker STJ waves or a hybrid NS system in a Nina. 1996 was a lot of things. The northern pacific didn’t behave like a Nina much of that wither. The stj was more active than normal. The blocking. And I think some was just change. We got lucky and hit on almost every threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 It's nice to see a continued -NAO blocking in some fashion repeatedly on the GEFS in the post 228hr timeframe...it just keeps showing up...no just a one run and done. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 this is what our -NAO/-AO is gonna give us? 6 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Why are you posting a day 15 op? Because he paid for it lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 Ji will always step up to the plate and deliver. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: Ji will always step up to the plate and deliver. He’s the Shoeless Joe Jackson of winter weather discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 8 minutes ago, H2O said: Ji will always step up to the plate and deliver. He never misses a trolling chance. I guess he's back because his snowman19 trolling account got forum banned...(kidding)...(mostly) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 10 minutes ago, H2O said: Ji will always step up to the plate and deliver. Good thing I don't see his posts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 36 minutes ago, Ji said: this is what our -NAO/-AO is gonna give us? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 29, 2022 Author Share Posted November 29, 2022 12z Op GFS was the toaster bath scenario but 12z GEFS looks solid. Very similar to 0z EPS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 WB 12Z GEFS….much better. I never said the GFS was correct, but we all know that the warmest and least snowy model usually is unfortunately… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 29, 2022 Author Share Posted November 29, 2022 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: 12z GGEM shows this @CAPE scenario for Dec 9 with a modest VA hit. 12z euro similar but farther south than GGEM so no snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 this looks like a winner to me 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 WB 12Z EPS is not the GFS toaster oven… 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS is not the GFS toaster oven… Interesting that the EPS and GEFS now have the PNA nearing neutral around the 13th. Perhaps that could be an early storm signal with some brief west coast ridging? Alongside -EPO, and AO/NAO relaxing from their -3SD minimums. Probably too early into the pattern's progression, but worth noting. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 29, 2022 Author Share Posted November 29, 2022 28 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: this looks like a winner to me Wooooo baby 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 At what point does this projected pattern stop being a question of Lucy picking up the football and becomes a realistic probability? Inside 10 days? 8 days? 5days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 29, 2022 Author Share Posted November 29, 2022 1 minute ago, bigtenfan said: At what point does this projected pattern stop being a question of Lucy picking up the football and becomes a realistic probability? Inside 10 days? 8 days? 5days? The -NAO starts building at D5. That’s not fantasy land. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 Don’t let Jis troll posts dissuade you from what’s coming. We are going to have above normal temps before it breaks and the pattern improves. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 Is it wrong that I’m pulling for the toaster scenario? Just asking for a guy that’s still working outside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 39 minutes ago, mappy said: Don’t let Jis troll posts dissuade you from what’s coming. We are going to have above normal temps before it breaks and the pattern improves. Got to love the 384 hour maps from the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Got to love the 384 hour maps from the op. It’s terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 Doug Kammerer just said he expects alot of rain between Christmas and New Years. Going all in on his 2" of snow call for DC this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Doug Kammerer just said he expects alot of rain between Christmas and New Years. Going all in on his 2" of snow call for DC this winter. Ask him how much rain he's expecting tomorrow and see if he's right 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 I'll take this look leading up to Xmas. I mean, I'd roll with it anytime between now and March. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 21 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Doug Kammerer just said he expects alot of rain between Christmas and New Years. Going all in on his 2" of snow call for DC this winter. One thing I hate is a guy like this making that call…he has no idea if it will rain or not next week let alone 3 weeks from now…and not seeing the upcoming potential just to double down on 2 inches of snow because he made that call a month ago…he has no clue what will happen…no one does…he’s a turd sandwich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 If these looks up top end up verifying it is going to be a pretty big coup for mid-long range modelling. We were talking about this possibility almost two weeks ago now. And the look has actually gotten better since then. I would like to see a little more ridging on the west coast. And I wouldnt mind the can getting kicked down the road a couple of weeks. It would help you guys on the coastal plain a ton IF something does pop off. It is just so much better to be tracking a legit pattern instead of the garbage we have been tracking early in the past couple of winters. Hell, I think I jumped last year around New Years. The writing was on the wall. At least we have a possible game to play. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 29, 2022 Share Posted November 29, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: One thing I hate is a guy like this making that call…he has no idea if it will rain or not next week let alone 3 weeks from now…and not seeing the upcoming potential just to double down on 2 inches of snow because he made that call a month ago…he has no clue what will happen…no one does…he’s a turd sandwich I thought his snowfall forecast was pretty extreme. Could it happen... sure. Will it likely happen? Who knows. His winter forecast was for 4" to 10" all the way west past Hagerstown. That would be one of the lowest snowfall winters all time for Hagerstown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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