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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

IIRC, that year we had the -EPO rocking, but also a super ++NAO much of the time as long as the pERleR VerTeX didn’t pay us a visit. So that could give us more space for storms to slow down.

It was a wild stretch. The tpv acted like a block when we needed it. Set the lanes up just right underneath. 

34 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

With the -NAO/AO why is it progressive?  I thought those indices make it not progressive and allow storms to amplify and slowdown. 

With a nasty tpv drop like that, effective blocking will happen north of us. Flow will always be fast underneath a big tpv. I'm just calling what I see. I'd prefer less amplification and more blockification but hard to be picky at all rn

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It is a very similar look.  In 2009 eventually a piece of the TPV did drop in and phase while there was a 50/50 in the way to prevent a cutter. But keep in mind it took a while. We had a cutter and a sheared wave after that date before finally getting the win.  Great setup doesn’t mean “next wave is definitely a big snow”. Even in our best patterns we often need multiple chances before we get a hit. 

I would disagree experientially that “even in our best patterns we often need multiple chances before we get a hit”

In our best patterns it snows just about every time it can . When we are speaking of multiple misses beforehand we are mostly In trouble 

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

GFS setting something up for the 23.  50/50 low, 1043 HP over Canada, system developing in the south.

Really been keying in on that for at least several runs. One hell of a HP as well. 
 

TT only goes out to 240 for Euro. Did it show the 23rd as well? 

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6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Really been keying in on that for at least several runs. One hell of a HP as well. 

The HP was actually strengthening as it was dropping south, too.  

Christmas-eve-eve snow breaking out in DC Friday morning.  Moderate to heavy snow Friday afternoon.  :snowing:

Yes, I’m doing PBP on a 280H+ run of the GFS OP. :lol:

ETA:  NS vort dropping down from the plains creates a low in the Great Lakes.  GFS eventually has a low in the gulf, low off the Jersey coast, and a low in the Great Lakes.  A window to certainly keep an eye on. 

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Well, this is a great thread by Allan where he provides composites of the 500 mb anomalies and surface tempertures based on the CPC super ensembles then rolled them forward 5 days from Dec 22 nd  to Dec 27 th and then another 5 days centered on 1/1/23.  Wow !!!  HM chimes in at the end. :mapsnow:

 

 

 

 

 

 

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